Back to Infinity Development (Hkex: 640)

As the title suggest, I have carved out some allocation back to this counter again.

To put in context, i actually exit this position (at 0.775 to 0.81) in April 2025 as i had to consolidate my firepower.

On hindsight, of course the deployment was very successful but Infinity Development did very well as well.

Company Brief Context

Operates in the Shoe Adhesive Industry, with factories in China, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam remains their largest source of revenue but Indonesia has been growing in recent years. Also there is increased investments in Indonesia.

(Indonesia showing 50% growth in revenue)

(Continued Investment in Indonesia)

Currently the trailing PE is about 6 while the price to book is around 1.25

Balance Sheet Wise. It remains relatively healthy. Cash is sufficient to cover all liabilities. Receivables remain healthy despite a 23% increase in revenue

Reasons for Purchasing

1) Dual Listing on SGX. 

With the dual listing, i think the prospectus will show more details when the company lodges it. Such as capacity , utilisation , new factory details , customer concentration and details.

The egm approval is on 25 September 2025, so i am definitely front running way earlier than the listing which might take a few more months.

Given by how the SGX Markets has been on going this year where a lot of small caps are starting to get into double PE .... 6 PE with capacity growth potential....its probably worth the risk taking.

2) Exports of Footwear remain strong in Vietnam , Indonesia and Bangaladesh

It might be a surprise but vietnam's footwear exports this period is the strongest. Based on this alone, i am really curious to see if this growth flows through to Infinity.

Looking at their second revenue generating location, the growth drivers remain.

For Bangaladesh, their footwear exports is up around 10% .

3) Major Customer showing production growth

Yue Yuen has been the prime suspect as their largest customer , contributing 21% of the revenue in FY 2024.

Their shoe production remains positive. With increases seen in Indonesia and Vietnam

4) Competitor Margins remain intact

Nan Pao (4766 TPE) is one of their main competitor with around 3 to 4 times of Infinity's revenue. It is relatively assuring to see that their gross profit margin trend has been increasing and also increased in Q2 2025. 

Concerns

1) Yue Yuen's shoe production growth has largely declined

To add to this, July Manufacturing is +0.5% while August Manufacturing is -9.70%

2) Competitor's Revenue is not increasing as well

3) Investor Relations Unfortunately does not reply, hopefully with the dual listing they would engage investors more.

4) With only 431 employees, it is hard to actually find any information about the company.

(I have no idea what is this but it showed up when i search for the company)

Conclusion

I am still a data driven person, so i will be encouraged to see increased export. 

Furthermore, during times of poor export in 2023, the company did poor as well.

I will allocate some position before the prospectus and review again after the prospectus comes out.

Before i sold it in April 2025, it was around close to 10% of my portfolios. 

I think the initial weightage of this amount will be acceptable.

Dream International (HKEX: 1126) Update

Dream released its results on 25 Aug. 

As the results presentation by management is on 1 Sept, i had decided to wait for it.

I will write the conclusion first. 1H 25 Results Poor but 2H 25 should be great and should matter more.

Why is 1H 25 Results Poor?

Gross Margin Fell. Management attributed increased staff cost and ramping up period for new items and product for buyers.

Revenue Increase of 12%. Frankly speaking i was expecting 20-30% but that is me, i think it might be difficult to ramp up so quickly.

Barring that other income swing (forex effect, results is poorer.

Takeaways from Results Presentation and 2H 2025 view.

-1H 2025 Revenue affected by some customers pushing back and moving orders to 2H as a result of the tariff situation

-However, currently pricing pressures not as severe and tariffs cost not bared by Dream.

-Management mentioned that 2H this year is 'very strong at the moment'

-1st Indonesia Factory is progressing better than management expectation. No impact from recent strikes.

-Lots of discussions with various customers from Japan, US , China etc. Recent tariff on India has also promped more discussions by customers who source from there.

-2nd Indonesia Factory and New Vietnam Factory will come hopefully come online for 2H 26.

-Maintain a stance of more growth next year due to increased capacity. But once again mentioned that revenue and margin increase can come from productivity improvements.

-Might look at increasing factory for Plush in China well given current demand remains strong.

- Build a Bear a major customer, still seeing positive order flow for Asian Theme Park Plush, believes that some effects of ramping up can be mitigated in 2H 2025.

- Unofficially said that there is around 40k workers at the moment, non peak period ideal amount would be 25k to 30k. As of 1H 25, there was 28.6k workers. Therefore, this is around 35% increase.

Conclusion

I would want to monitor and see how strong 2H might be. Will probably continue to monitor the export trends, theme park trends, customer revenue and inventory. 

They have increased a lot of customers so it remains to be seen how well they ramp up.

Given that i believe 2H Revenue should be the highest in history(current record 3.41b), i believe current price of 13.28 represents decent value as it is probably a PE of 10-11 or maybe even lower if productivity and margin improvement kicks in.

For my own portfolio , as of now, i will keep it at around 20% to 40% allocation for now. 

This might change based on prevailing business conditions and various data as data is released in the following months. 

(August 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

August 2025 Returns: 22.11%

Year to Date Returns:103.92%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 363.94%

August is a busy month as companies report various results. The portfolio has once again set a new monthly high on the back of companies like Hong Leong Asia. 

5 years, 100k to 460k....well thats decent i guess even though i just do this monthly for fun and also to show that it is possible in sgx since Sept 2020.

Some companies results thoughts.

Hong Leong Asia - Construction Segment Lacklustre, China Yuchai good results. Most brokerage houses have upped the target price amidst the 'construction catch-up'. I think results this year will be better definitely. Yuchai is a good company (with AI Data Centre generator supplier play) and the construction segment should eventually benefit from the construction demand sooner or later. Its not about how many % the net profit grew in 1H 2025, but rather things look so rosy.

Centurion - I think the surprise with this result is in the revaluation as i thought it would be positive. However, all eyes remain on the spin-off. Post Spin-off, Centurion will be left with short leases dormitory (quick build dormitories) on the Singapore + Malaysia Worker Dormitories. This portion contributed around 40.8m core profit for 2024. Continued extension of leases , would be a plus point in generating profits for the main company post spin off.

Moneymax - No surprises as gold price has been on the up since Jan 2025. Current PE of around 7 is acceptable but i think it is not sustainable as my personal view is that you cannot keep having gold increase double digit % each year.

Hor Kew - The results look ok. Still sitting on the severely undervalued land from early 2010 (around there), the forward looking commentary is good as well.

NSL - The results is acceptable. People who read the FY Results need to be aware that it is 18 months full year results. 1H 2025 + 2H 2025 is actually EPS of 9.34 cents. Another data centre projects play as precast is required. Though this is for Malaysia.

There will be changes made to the portfolio.

Removed Moneymax

-Reduced Hong Leong Asia

-Added Nam Lee Metal , Singpost 

-Increased Hor Kew , Far East Orchard.

Rationale

-I don't think gold prices can keep going up each year like it has been. As such, profitability might start to drop.

-For exposure purpose, i think reducing Hong Leong Asia back to below 40% would be ideal.

-For Singpost. I think that to be realistic, amidst so much hype about the EQDP, someone is going to say Singpost is good because of divestment and there is some expectation that they can finally be lean after selling anything they can find. Its just the name, the ownership that makes 'doing some national duty makes sense'. To add to that, it is still below book value.

-For FEO, i think we can put some anticipation in the upcoming PBSA term from September.

-Hor Kew Results is ok so i have decided to add on to that

-Nam Lee Metal . Another part construction play. Container segment (from Carrier Results) looks positive. 

(Long Post) 1m By 31

Yea as the title suggest, i have 'got there'. 

But of course, things can flip quickly so yea maybe a few days later i would have fallen off like it did a few months ago....but oh wells , that is life. 

(Thumbnail Picture for the Group that motivated me and kickstarted the revivial since 2019)

(Being able to see them again in 2024 and 2025 is really a happy thing)

(Them in 2019)

I don't have much thoughts currently actually. Maybe because things happened too sudden this year. At 1 point in April, i was talking about my biggest loss in a day . Then, fast forward 4 months later, things flipped 180 degrees.

For anyone curious about the returns.

Without leverage/options and only SGX and HKEX.

Investing Journey and More about myself

Back when this blog started in 2018, it was part diary writing part sharing of analysis part show off. I thought that after learning investing from school from 2015-2018, i was ready. 

To add to that, i thought that a ntu business(banking and finance) 2nd upper degrees with a 100k portfolio(due to 20% and 37% returns in 2016 and 2017) upon graduation, the road to 1m would probably take like 5 years if i landed a good job and climbed the ladder and invested well with the knowledge i have learnt.

Unfortunately, thoughts are just thoughts. 2018 quickly turned into a nightmare. Jobless upon graduation, reversing my portfolio to a negative in the 2nd half of the 6 months from a 20+% ytd gain. That was also one of my toughest years. The 2018 review write up can be found here

That year broke my confidence down. It left me really down. If not for falling into Lovelyz into 2019 after watching their concert in Singapore and reignited my interest in K-Pop and the desire to do well so i can keep doing what i want to do in terms of K-Pop related stuff(e.g going to Korea to see their concert), i probably might have given up.

So yeah, some people ask me why i am so obsessed with K-pop, i rarely gave the real answer because there are so many parts to it. Sometimes end of the day, you just have to do things that you are happy and comfortable with.

In case folks ever wonder that subsequently, i had a high salary to boost my portfolio, that is not the case. 

If you see this capital flow, you can tell that i have not pumped money into the portfolio since 2022. So i am just making the best of what i have. Also, i only started working in 2020 (which explains the higher capital inflow) and my last drawn take home salary in 2025 is 3300 - 3400.

In fact, ever since 2021, people might have realise that the positions i have taken gets more concentrated and focused.

2020: AAG, Shinvest, Tat Seng ,KWG Group, Mainland Headwear. 

2021: Shinvest and AAG Energy 

2022: AAG Energy , HG Metal , Medialink Group, Mainland Headwear

2023: Dream International, Huationg Global (Top 20 Shareholder at 1 point), San Miguel Brewery

2024: Dream International and Wee Hur

2025(Current): Dream International, Hor Kew,Mainland Headwear 

This year's journey.

Started off this year with around 440 to 450k. Was up around 10% and doing well at around March when tariffs happened.

My top position fell 32% in 2 days. As spoken in my previous post, i consolidated my hong kong holdings into this position. 

The rest is seen in this chart.

I have received some enquiries on whether i have took profit. At time of writing, i have took some profit on this position.

Previously, i have always wanted to hold it all until i have seen the results (in fact i was invited to their zoom session this time around too).

But since at this price which Mr Market decides to give it, it is life changing money, i decided to trim the position. 

Yea, not going to lie that this phrase 'life changing money' is something i used to hear a friend i met more often last time said. And it keeps lingering in my mind as well.

Dream International. Is it overpriced at $14.82?

Truth be told, in my own valuation model, if 1H 2025 there is no positive profit announcement, it probably means only 2 things

1) Profit increase if any is less than 35%

2) Company did not feel that there is a need to release it this time around.

Case number 2 is rare and unlikely so lets just assume it is case 1 .

Assuming around 20% profit so 1H is 50 cents. 2H is usually 65% higher than 2H. As such, around 85 cents. Full year $1.35 and with manufacturers wanting to shift out from China to Vietnam, new 2nd plant in indonesia and full year of operation in 2026. Such that 25% increase in plastic for 2027. 

11+ PE is not expensive given the potential(2026/2027) and there is not much alternatives if big orders want to be shifted out of China. Dream will be the most likely beneficiary.

I am just dissapointed slightly that there is a chance results might not beat 2023 results. 

Still, 2H is the traditional peak season for Dream, which means it is way more important. There is the possibility of big orders from Pop Mart which also signals that demand is not a problem.

However, all these are in the plastic segment, the plush segment which earns around 2:1 per revenue compared to plastic, will still be key.

Currently, no indications of high double digit gains yet.

There are a few listed hkex manufacturers on my watchlist that have plants in bangaladesh , vietnam, cambodia, indonesia 

These currently trade at around 5 to 8 PE.

But, none are toy producers. 

None have above 2 billion revenue HKD. 

None have shown that they have grown revenue in the past 5 years like Dream.

None have expanded as aggressively as dream.

None have performed within a 20% range in terms of profit for the past 3 years.

None have an IR that respond to a retail investor like Dream.

To sum it up, there are many reasons why Dream can be higher than 8 PE and deserves to be there.

What's next?

Taking a prolonged break sounds good, firing my boss, selling all my stocks. Go for holidays, recharge for a few years and come back again. 

Maybe move to Korea for 1-2 years to study korean and be closer to chasing k-pop related events

I am undecided yet. For now i will take some time to think it through. I don't know how much there is left in the tank for me really.

On 1 hand, it is good to take a break but on the other, the real games has just begun.

In the meantime, i have to still monitor my current stocks, try to learn more knowledge of various companies, source for more companies as well as update the monthly 'How i would invest series' too. 

Even if i do sell all my stocks, i will still keep up with that series. It keeps me motivated to track stocks and also create a list of stocks to keep an eye on etc.

As usual, i will end of with K-Pop Photos and hope that things will continue to be good.

(The wand worked. Hope it works further more)

Ending Remarks

Always grateful and thankful to everyone and everything as always. 

(July 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

July 2025 Returns: 7.55%

Year to Date Returns:67.00%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 279.93%

Nothing much to report in July as we await results in august. Apart from the much awaited Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) finally gaining traction,

I think that is a reason why folks might be anticipating the market ahead of time and lead to some people saying STI CXG is overvalued. But truth be told, if you have been stuck in a 3000-4000 rangebound for years, you might think that above 4000 it is over valued or dangerous. Much like a frog in the well thinking outside there are hunters etc.

Strong SGD relative to other countries , Companies growing revenue and profits, Economic Growth, Inflation.....these are just a few reasons in the many reasons and factors that can cause the stock market to go up. 

Sometimes we might have to move our valuations in line with market or settle for cheaper stocks which are likely cheap for a reason or another (e.g lack of news or coverage or information.) Or simply it could be just its business prospects or results are not as good such that folks would rather invest in other stocks. 

While we ponder and think it through, it will be a big august ahead.

Powermatic Data 2025 AGM Notes

Powermatic Data 2025 AGM Notes

Powermatic held its AGM on 24 July 2025. Around 45-60 shareholders are present with some long term shareholders interested to understand the developments of the company following a rather poor but expected year.

Revenue fell 49%, Gross Profit 56% and Profits 22%.

Q1: Explaination of Poor Results

A1: 2 Main Reasons. 1 is the overstocking in recent years. Second is due to Qualcom's uncompetitive Wifi 6 products resulting in competitors like Mediatek being more attractive value prepositions. As a result, as customers progress from 5 to 6, they would rather use solutions of other companies. This explains the fall in revenue despite inventory levels seems to have returned to healthy levels for customers.

Q2: On Business Prospects Moving Forwards

A2: Current Market is niched and it means that client base is limited.

As such, to consider entering connectivity markets that have more clients but these are more competitive and it means lower margins and possibly bad debt risk that the board and management has to consider. Mentioned a recent atm machine connectivity project win that is not related to their usual wifi connectivity as an example to show that they are making some inroads progress.

Expect orders to return end of this year for Wifi 7. Customers keen but a lot of hand holding needed to guide them into this transition. As such it will be gradual process.

Gave an example of their major customer. Took them 1.5 years to transit from Wifi 5 to 7.

Especially after losing out on Wifi 6. Currently, Qualcom products for Wifi 7 looks more competitive than Mediatek (facing some issues with performance) and management believes they have an edge. Also mentioned Wifi 7 to 8 will be another 6-8 years so this Wifi 7 will be long.

Mentioned Edge AI as a big trend, will need powerful processors and in turn more powerful wifi products which is Powermatic's expertise. A potential market and opportunity for Powermatic.

Q3: On New Ceo

A3: Board does not agree with the directions that the CEO wants to take and there has been integration problems into the corporate culture. As such, decided that it is best to do the right actions for shareholders.

Re-iterated that the process was quite stringent as it is someone the executive directors know for 15 years.

Some impact onto P&L around 250k due to performance shares that has to be expensed along with the pay up till June 2025.

Q4: On New Food Factory

A4: No new progress as it is still 28% sold (12 units). Market seems to have slowed down. Good thing is that within timeline and within construction budget of 28m.

A new launch in vicinity called foodpoint tai seng has also seen slow down in sales so it is a market effect.

Overall not much worries since not financed by debt and there is the option of renting units out and also overall cost of development is low.

Conclusion: Some people know i run a monthly series of an imaginary portfolio how i would pick sgx stocks if i had 100k since Sept 2020.

Powermatic Data has been in and out of that list. After the AGM, it will still remain out.

I feel that it still needs more monitoring at this point and a possibly entry should be after 2026 agm if prospect of Wifi 7 is good and sales has picked up. The opportunity cost of waiting for 1 year while knowing that it is very likely a slow year is the reason why it will not be in the list.

(June 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

June 2025 Returns: 19.62%

Year to Date Returns: 55.28%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 253.26%

I had to double check the numbers again to make sure i was right. 

Basically there were a lot of bright spots in June. UMS , Hong Leong Asia, Hor Kew, Moneymax and Centurion are the main stand outs.

1H 2025 Returns of 55.28%. Very Very Very Satisfactory. 

Also thankful for the support for every view to this sgx stock only series.

I will just briefly talk about 2 stocks. Both of which recorded good gains in excess of 20% in June itself.

Hong Leong Asia - Construction Portion is expected to be strong so no surprises there, perhaps there has been increased interest in the Singapore Construction Sector with the expected increase in HDBs and Projects. Increased Utility in their precast factory will be a good thing as it has been unprofitable in 2023/2024.

On the engines part (China Yuchai) is where all the fun is actually....YTD Gains of 156% for Yuchai while Hong Leong Asia is around 69%. Considering that HLA owns half of Yuchai, i would expect say around 78% to be fair?

In terms of fundamentals, its orderbook is full till next year June and there has been news of price increase in 2H 2025 as well as capacity increase in 2026. This is due to increased power generator demand as a result of Data Centres. These power generators serve as utility back-up power supply for these data centres (main operators are the big tech companies).

In some sites, there have been mention of increased sales of 20% for Multi-cylinder diesel engine in 1st 5 months of the year so thats a positive news.

So lets assess again 1H results and 2H 2025 results to see if this happens.

Hor Kew - Main rise in June probably came from the minutes of the AGM where more details were seen about the company's operations. 

2 Years of sustainable margins and sufficient orderbook is actually pretty good enough given that the company trades at 3 to 4 PE.

From this we can tell that there is value to be unlocked. 

Hor Kew is trading at around 0.6 book value($1.63). The land is 33 cents. Around 20% of book value or 30% of market cap. If this is sold and at 'a few times higher' there is so much value to be seen if dividend is to be paid out higher as well. Lets reassess the 1H 2025 results and see the margins which would indicate the future results of 2H 2025 and 2026. 

The hidden value of the possible land sales makes the company much safer and attractive too.

The next important juncture will still be August where companies start reporting result.