But of course, things can flip quickly so yea maybe a few days later i would have fallen off like it did a few months ago....but oh wells , that is life.
(Thumbnail Picture for the Group that motivated me and kickstarted the revivial since 2019)
(Being able to see them again in 2024 and 2025 is really a happy thing)
(Them in 2019)
I don't have much thoughts currently actually. Maybe because things happened too sudden this year. At 1 point in April, i was talking about my biggest loss in a day . Then, fast forward 4 months later, things flipped 180 degrees.
Without leverage/options and only SGX and HKEX.
Investing Journey and More about myself
Back when this blog started in 2018, it was part diary writing part sharing of analysis part show off. I thought that after learning investing from school from 2015-2018, i was ready.
To add to that, i thought that a ntu business(banking and finance) 2nd upper degrees with a 100k portfolio(due to 20% and 37% returns in 2016 and 2017) upon graduation, the road to 1m would probably take like 5 years if i landed a good job and climbed the ladder and invested well with the knowledge i have learnt.
Unfortunately, thoughts are just thoughts. 2018 quickly turned into a nightmare. Jobless upon graduation, reversing my portfolio to a negative in the 2nd half of the 6 months from a 20+% ytd gain. That was also one of my toughest years. The 2018 review write up can be found here
That year broke my confidence down. It left me really down. If not for falling into Lovelyz into 2019 after watching their concert in Singapore and reignited my interest in K-Pop and the desire to do well so i can keep doing what i want to do in terms of K-Pop related stuff(e.g going to Korea to see their concert), i probably might have given up.
So yeah, some people ask me why i am so obsessed with K-pop, i rarely gave the real answer because there are so many parts to it. Sometimes end of the day, you just have to do things that you are happy and comfortable with.
In case folks ever wonder that subsequently, i had a high salary to boost my portfolio, that is not the case.
If you see this capital flow, you can tell that i have not pumped money into the portfolio since 2022. So i am just making the best of what i have. Also, i only started working in 2020 (which explains the higher capital inflow) and my last drawn take home salary in 2025 is 3300 - 3400.
In fact, ever since 2021, people might have realise that the positions i have taken gets more concentrated and focused.
2020: AAG, Shinvest, Tat Seng ,KWG Group, Mainland Headwear.
2021: Shinvest and AAG Energy
2022: AAG Energy , HG Metal , Medialink Group, Mainland Headwear
2023: Dream International, Huationg Global (Top 20 Shareholder at 1 point), San Miguel Brewery
2024: Dream International and Wee Hur
2025(Current): Dream International, Hor Kew,Mainland Headwear
This year's journey.
Started off this year with around 440 to 450k. Was up around 10% and doing well at around March when tariffs happened.
My top position fell 32% in 2 days. As spoken in my previous post, i consolidated my hong kong holdings into this position.
The rest is seen in this chart.
I have received some enquiries on whether i have took profit. At time of writing, i have took some profit on this position.
Previously, i have always wanted to hold it all until i have seen the results (in fact i was invited to their zoom session this time around too).
But since at this price which Mr Market decides to give it, it is life changing money, i decided to trim the position.
Yea, not going to lie that this phrase 'life changing money' is something i used to hear a friend i met more often last time said. And it keeps lingering in my mind as well.
Dream International. Is it overpriced at $14.82?
Truth be told, in my own valuation model, if 1H 2025 there is no positive profit announcement, it probably means only 2 things
1) Profit increase if any is less than 35%
2) Company did not feel that there is a need to release it this time around.
Case number 2 is rare and unlikely so lets just assume it is case 1 .
Assuming around 20% profit so 1H is 50 cents. 2H is usually 65% higher than 2H. As such, around 85 cents. Full year $1.35 and with manufacturers wanting to shift out from China to Vietnam, new 2nd plant in indonesia and full year of operation in 2026. Such that 25% increase in plastic for 2027.
11+ PE is not expensive given the potential(2026/2027) and there is not much alternatives if big orders want to be shifted out of China. Dream will be the most likely beneficiary.
I am just dissapointed slightly that there is a chance results might not beat 2023 results.
Still, 2H is the traditional peak season for Dream, which means it is way more important. There is the possibility of big orders from Pop Mart which also signals that demand is not a problem.
However, all these are in the plastic segment, the plush segment which earns around 2:1 per revenue compared to plastic, will still be key.
Currently, no indications of high double digit gains yet.
There are a few listed hkex manufacturers on my watchlist that have plants in bangaladesh , vietnam, cambodia, indonesia
These currently trade at around 5 to 8 PE.
But, none are toy producers.
None have above 2 billion revenue HKD.
None have shown that they have grown revenue in the past 5 years like Dream.
None have expanded as aggressively as dream.
None have performed within a 20% range in terms of profit for the past 3 years.
None have an IR that respond to a retail investor like Dream.
To sum it up, there are many reasons why Dream can be higher than 8 PE and deserves to be there.
Taking a prolonged break sounds good, firing my boss, selling all my stocks. Go for holidays, recharge for a few years and come back again.
Maybe move to Korea for 1-2 years to study korean and be closer to chasing k-pop related events
I am undecided yet. For now i will take some time to think it through. I don't know how much there is left in the tank for me really.
On 1 hand, it is good to take a break but on the other, the real games has just begun.
In the meantime, i have to still monitor my current stocks, try to learn more knowledge of various companies, source for more companies as well as update the monthly 'How i would invest series' too.
Even if i do sell all my stocks, i will still keep up with that series. It keeps me motivated to track stocks and also create a list of stocks to keep an eye on etc.
As usual, i will end of with K-Pop Photos and hope that things will continue to be good.
(The wand worked. Hope it works further more)
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