Saturday 30 December 2023

2023 Year End Review Part 2

2023 Returns: 28.66% (After a miracle run in 2022, 2023 is also another miracle run )

For Folks Interested in XIRR

Year End Thoughts

When i look at my results in 2023, it is definitely good. However if i were to describe it like a football match, it would be like scoring 7 goals in the 1st half and letting in 2 goals in the 2nd half to finish the match with a 7-2 victory.

While it definitely is a win and a big one, i would have to develop more tactics for upcoming matches as it is not every match where scoring 7 goals is possible.

While things have been smooth running for a few years, there is always a need to be conscious of what i can do and what can go wrong as well as knowing that what you might not know that might go wrong. Things can always go wrong at any point of time and that is just the harsh fact of life.

Motivation wise, i think compared to 2022, it is around the same or even lower this year as i have not made much changes or perhaps try to deep dive much lesser. Which is why i am actually shocked by the 2023 returns. Perhaps the gods have decided to give their blessings for 2023.

Hopefully my motivation picks up in 2024.

Portfolio Related

Facing a big allocation decision again for the 2nd year running, it was about allocating the funds from AAG Energy, the top holding of 2022 that would be key.

In End 2022, the larger positions (6% and above were)

AAG Energy (Delisted, Premium of <10%)

HG Metal (Sold at a Loss)

Medialink Group (Sold at a Gain)

Mainland Headwear (Still Holding a Small Position. 2023 Share Price Returns: -6.84%

-Reduced after a muted / negative guidance was given for 2022 2H. With New Era IPO rumored to be in 2024, perhaps we would be able to better observe the company and re-enter again.

In End 2023, the larger positions (6% and above are)

1. Dream International Ltd

-I plan to come out a post hopefully in January with regards to this. But in the meanwhile commentary, the strength of Theme Park in Japan continues to hold. 

Officially, Japan Tourism Numbers have surpassed pre-covid in October 2023. That is good tailwind news.

2.516 million visits in Oct 2023 compared to 2.496 million in Oct 2019 Pre Covid.

(A Plush Found in DisneySea Merchandise Store, Made in Vietnam)

2. Huationg Global

-1H 2023 is actually one of the lowest revenue(41.6 million) i have seen for its Civil Engineering Segment Since 2020.

-As such, will see if there is a rebound in revenue in 2H as order book of $484.4 million to be completed within the next 4 years would mean roughly 60 million per half year.

-Dormitory Operation should maintain, or any improvements would be positive. The possible negative  factor would be higher inter-segment revenue affecting segment profit. With regards to rental rates, they have still maintained a high level.

(Dormitory Ads on Commercial Guru)

3. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong

-I wrote a post on it recently. Therefore, i will want to see the results to see if they can surprise by selling more exports.

-In terms of stability, it definitely has improved its financials in 2023 with improved profitability and improved rental in its investment property.

With that the 2023 Year End Review has come to an end.

(Sending Hearts and Wishing Everyone a Happy New Year)


Friday 29 December 2023

(December 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

December 2023 Returns: 0.54%

Year to Date Returns: 22.58%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 74.34%

The year wraps up with a 22.58% on the imaginary portfolio of SG Stocks.

Since it begin in September 2020, the returns for each year are as follows.

2020: 6.07%

2021: 54.42%

2022: -16.56%

2023: 22.58%

The STI is in a range of -5% to 5% therefore to have a 22% performance is great for the portfolio.

I started the year with 10 positions and ended the year with 8 positions. 

With which, UMS, TC Auto, Haw Par, Powermatic , Centurion, China Sunsine survived the full year.

A stock that caught my eye and perhaps i would want to dive deeper would be.......Straco.

The quarterly results might have been its best ever and even beat pre-covid results. As we know, Shanghai Aquarium has always been the main income driver therefore we might see some positive upside in Q4 2023. I might need to do some research and decide by End January if we can add this guy back in again after a relatively muted addition back in Dec 31 to Mar 22.

Sunday 24 December 2023

2023 Year End Review (Part 1)

Part 1 will be relooking some of the transactions done this year as well some talking cock and spamming K-Pop photos. As there are still a few days left to the end of the year, it is still early days to be talking about returns.

(One of the places i have been to this year)

After all anyone with Tencent / Netease or china game stocks will know that doing the review on 21 December vs 22 December will have made a sizable difference on returns.

The year started positively as the first slam dunk movie made a good impact in Hong Kong and Taiwan, which subsequently led to a rise in Medialink Group (Hkex:2230) Share Price and i was able to sell it at a decent profit. Medialink Group was the distributor for First Slam Dunk in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Following which, HG Metal reported poor results in February 2023 and i have sold them at 0.355. Although the share price did went higher than 0.355 on the back of some share sale news, last i checked, it is at 0.28 now and the 1H 2023 Results was bad as the company was loss making on the back of poor revenue

Meanwhile, in the subsequent months, some results trading went well while some went south. 

Trades that went south/ sold at a lower price

Zengames (Hkex:2660). Sold at 2.69 in Feb. It was 4.51 as of 22 December 2023 despite the crackdown that happened to game industry.

Sutl Enterprise. Sold at 0.545 in March 2023 and 0.55 in April 2023 and the current price is 0.67

Baguio Green. Sold at 0.59 and 0.60 in August. Current Price is 0.73

AV Concept. Sold at 0.3. Current price is 0.36

Among the 4, i am most positive on Sutl Enterprise.

Trades that went well 

AAG Energy. I guess it went well since profit was made. But the lowball offer went through. As such the returns made from YTD was around 10%

Ossia Intl - I shared my view in a previous post in April 2023. After the post, i was still adding it . My buy price ranged from 0.114 to 0.133. It hit a price of 0.16 to 0.175 in May which i took the opportunity to sell all of it. Fate and Luck seems to have decided that it would be a profit after all.

Build King- Bought in when i saw Wai Kee mentioning in its profit alert that Build King did well. And as expected it did well and i was able to make 10% on it.

Verdict is not out

This applies to the stocks in my portfolio as i am still holding them and anything could happen. Although some stocks had a good run in share price (e.g Huationg), i am still holding them as i believe that they can do better but as always anything could happen so we will see.

Trends that caught my eye/ i observed this year (might be late in catching them)

1) Japan. 

Japan Stocks have rallied greatly this year. Oriental Land (Operates Disneyland and Disneysea) is up 40% this year. Itochu Corp (A conglomerate pick by Buffett is up 42%). Toyota is up 39% this year. Nissin is up 39% this year.  

However, coming with it has is the depreciation of yen. It was 97 at the start of the year and we are finishing the year at around 107. This has in turn led to high tourist numbers in Japan. October 2023 figures have already exceeded pre-covid 2019 numbers.

(2516500 Visitors in Oct 2023 broke the 2019 Number of 2496568)

2) Slowdown in Semiconductor in play

As seen from TSMC Revenue, we can see a slowdown in progress. While it varies differently across different companies, the general trend is in play and as such it is rather likely that the SG Semiconductors (e.g UMS, Micro Mechanics, Frencken will have a revenue fall)

3) Container Prices reverting to normal

After a super normal profits during Covid, Container Shipping companies are starting to see large dip in revenue as the price of such shipping start dropping. Although the recent red sea migh have some short term price fluctuations, the general trend since the start of the year has been a large decrease in price.

4) Inventory Overload in US

This is actually a worry for the factories that produce and export towards US. For example garment export to US has fallen as destocking continues.

In fact, when i was researching on Cap Export from Bangladesh to US, the data does not bode well either.

I took a look at the garment export figures as well....
Garment Export from July to November in 2023 was around 3.2 billion USD.
Garment Export from July to November in 2022 was around 3.4 billion USD.

While not a sharp % decrease, it still represents negative growth

5) Dry Bulk Continue to be in Shambles
Looking at the chart, it seems like this year the market looks like 2021 levels. The current levels are far from 2022 or late 2021 levels. Which means that profitability will be poor. It definitely is not an industry that i would be interested to be vested in at the moment.

Short Thoughts on the year

Overall, when i look at the things i have done in looks like i have done much lesser research this year. Which is a product of lack of motivation / some depression/ some willingness to spend more time on K-pop and travelling / work being somewhat busy which is unexpected.

Also, as the portfolio was in gain at August and in decent position, flashback of how i threw away double digit gains in 2018 to end the year in a loss lingered in my mind and i got more cautious in the 2nd half of the year, which explained for the lesser transactions in 2H (36) compare to 1H(58).

Instead, I tried to find out if i can find more different data for different sectors that i am holding and assess if they are useful to the companies i hold or i might want to hold. 

For example looking at Domestic Retail Figures in HK to see if it affects San Miguel Brewery HK in the recent years.

Will share more on returns in part 2.

Time for posting K-Pop Pictures 

(December 2023)

(November 2023)
(November 2023)
(November 2023)
(November 2023)
(November 2023)

(November 2023)
(November 2023)
(November 2023)
(September 2023)
(September 2023)
(September 2023)
(September 2023)
(August 2023)
(August 2023)
(August 2023)
(August 2023)

If you know at least 3 out of the 7 girl groups that the photos are associated we might be able to be friends if your interest are K-Pop as well 😂

If somehow you managed to survive to the end of the K-pop photos, then why not allow me to talk cock a little further into how i view china stocks in general recently. As usual i am talking cock so it most likely is wrong as i share my view.

The HSI has recorded a return of -18.89% this year. The tracker fund 2800 returned -15%.

In terms of stock picking, stocks that did well this year would be the 'resilient' stocks such as China Mobile (YTD Return 19.32%) and oil stocks such as Petrochina (YTD Return 38.66%)

Stocks that did bad.....well too many Ping An (-36.30%), Tencent (-17.96%), HKEX (-24.26%), Baba (-16.70%) .......

1) Property Market

A quick check on the returns of Property Stocks and Property Management Stocks reveal that negative returns are seen on the share price. For example Country Garden (-72.28%) and CG Services (-67.85%) other smaller caps that are on my watchlist such as Road King (-64.82%) , Central China Management (-51.59%)

The contagion has spread and also affected Hong Kong Property Counters such as Sun Hung Kai (-23.21%). Although that has to do with the high interest rate environment in HK as well as the poor HK Property Market.

In terms of profitability, property counters are still recording losses and defaulting on debts. 

Country Garden recorded a loss and even gross profit is negative. Its property management arm will be making a large impairment as well.

I think in 2024, property companies will still continue to suffer as the industry continues to suffer. As long as the big companies are in danger, there will always be abundant of supply and this means that prices will remain depressed as companies are more concerned about cash flow instead of profitability.

The longer it drags, the more companies will be affected. Unfortunately, from how we have seen how Evergrande has took so many years and is still a zombie company, i feel that it will take a very very long time for the supply glut to clear. Especially when the economy is bad and folks are not thinking of buying property for investment any more.

For Property Services Company, most of them are writing off their receivables as property companies are unable to pay them. As such it will affect them as well as those 3rd party property agents like BEKE.

The thought that has been in my mind is, can the industry recover when the companies are still defaulting on debt payment / recording losses / impairing left right centre? 

My thought is that it will not and as such if the company fundamentals do not improve or if we do not see any big transactions of land owned by companies in financial troubles being purchased by state owned companies, then it is unlikely that it will recover.

Top 100 Property Company Sales down 34.9% in November. YTD, Sales down 17.9%.

2) Economy

China is expected to record 5.4% of economic growth in 2023. But when we take a look at the industrial profits, it seems to be saying a completely different story.

As such, for shareholders it seems to be bad as profits are on a downwards trend.

A look at the retail sales reveal there is growth seen

Key double digit growth in November include Telecommunication, Clothes, Sports and Recreation as well as Tobacco.
(Profit Increase in Tobacco Company)

Travel is back as well in China as China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited recorded a gain of 27% in revenue in 3Q 2023.

And when we look at other indicators such as PPI and CPI, it continues to fall as well.

So it is a weird sight as corporate profits are down but sales are up and there is economic growth despite price fall and production price fall.

3) Employment

We have heard of the youth unemployment rate data being removed. But the overall unemployment rate according to official data has been decreasing.

4) Random 3Q China Sales

Nike in Greater China. 3Q 2023, 8% Revenue Growth Excluding Currency Effect.

XTEP = High Teens.

As such, it supports the thesis of sports products in China being strong. 

While instant noodles sales at Nissin for the China Region has recovered, it seems like headwind still persist.

However, if we look at some tourist numbers, they continue to look good.

Shanghai Disneyland has broke pre-covid average daily numbers. With Zootopia opening in December 2023, it will serve as an impetus for 2024.

So yeah, for the back end of the year, i guess travel related in China might be where i want to take a look at if any. With deposits falling, this might spur more consumption or investments. However, with investing looking very difficult in China with the many crackdowns as well as property downturn, perhaps some might prefer spending it instead,

5) Crackdown on Tech Industry

After tuition industry crackdown in 2022, we have seen recent crackdown in the game industry in December 2023 as a paper asking for opinion was issued. The fear is that usually such papers do happen to be real and in chinese there is a saying '无风不起浪' which means that waves are formed because of wind. As such, i believe the officials would not prepare the documents to seek for opinion if it was not going to happen.

I think of it like going to supermarket but every item is not on discount. Will it deter folks from playing the games? I guess it might but it is unlikely. However, it is likely to restrict spending and revenue gained from promotions that promote spending. One of the biggest advantage of these games are the economies of scale of game products. Unlike buying a car / buying a property / buying a physical product where there is cost involved in producing an additional unit, the game products have no such concerns. Which means that they can easily give many promotions. 

Having said that, the final verdict on what is allowed and what is not allowed is not out yet but it seems like some folks have had enough of it and it led to the big sell down.

Thinking about that, what can be hit next? One might ponder. Would it be pricing of premium alcohol? Would it be pricing of tobacco? Would it be livestreaming being benefitting companies too much or benefitting live streamers too much such that the products sold are not of good quality? Would it be taxing on companies that are too pollutive?

We might have to think what is vice or bad in terms of Chinese sense for the people. In Chinese there is a phrase 五毒 = 烟酒嫖赌毒 . Which means the 5 vice are Cigarette, Alcohol, Prostitution, Gambling and Drugs

While not taking the term literally, we have seen how mobile game can be drugs as people can be addicted to it. As such, could giving rewards to streamers or excessive buying on livestream shopping channels be a vice?

Could Douyin or Kuaishou, watching too much of these short duration videos be an addiction?

Could over-relying on food delivery riders be an addiction as this leads to people being fat or obese?

There are many possibilities and many ways to screw the tech industry if they want to.....