Thursday 30 November 2023

(November 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money


November 2023 Returns: 2.75%

Year to Date Returns: 21.92%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 73.39%

A small increase in returns brings the year to date returns to 21.92%.

With 1 month to go to end of year, lets see how the portfolio fares.

Results Release and Company 3Q Updates have come through for certain companies in November 2023

Powermatic Data - The best of the lot. 

UMS - Dividend Increase a pleasant surprise while revenue continues to be lower year on year due to semiconductor slowdown which is expected. 3Q 2023 has outperformed 2Q 2023 in terms of profit but as this is due to change of inventories, it might not be worth any cheers. Overall a poor year for semiconductor puts this stock at a valuation of around 8-9 sgd eps which is 14-16 PE.

It is a fair price to pay only if earnings does not fall any lower for the next 2 years as we are trading near year highs.

TC Auto - 3Q figures look similar to 1H figures which indicates bad. Apart from that i have nothing good to mention other than waiting for a rebound in sales in BMW if there ever it would be as the sales growth this year has been largely seen in new energy vehicles instead.

China Sunsine - An ouch moment but expected as the downturn continues. 3Q 2023 Net Profit of 65m is pretty bad considering 1H was 194.6m

Centurion - I still have not seen any indications that the revenue has peaked. This is echoed by management 'full impact on rental revenue growth expected to emerge progressively over the coming months, as 1-year tenant leases expire and are renewed at prevailing higher rental rates'

Meanwhile student accomodation has seen revenue around same levels as 1H 2023 /2 .

Sunday 5 November 2023

Predicting and Previewing Ossia International 1H 2023 Results (O08.SI)

Had nothing much to do for a sunday (finally) and decided to revisit a friend that has brought up some profits this year to see if more profits can be made.

Ossia International is poised to release its half year results in November.

Once again for folks who are unsure what this company is about, i have wrote about it in a previous post

Taiwan Retail 

Looking at its closest competitor , Munsin, it has performed well from April 2023 to September 2023

A rough calculation puts revenue at a 21% gain. As such, while the correlation is not high, it operates in the same space as  Taiwan Retail Segment of Ossia. 

If i were to take a look at the departmental store business in taiwan, it has been doing well as well

Once again, a common knowledge that the highest revenue generating departmental store is in tai zhong and not taipei as tai zhong is where a lot of the wealthy (semi conductor related industries) reside.

2 outlets have been opened as well from April to Sept. Columbia in Lalaport Taizhong and Kangol in Tainan.

As a whole, 1H 2023 is usually a lull period for Ossia's Taiwan Retail as the weather gets hotter and people have lesser need for cold wear but looking at the growth in departmental store and Munsin, there are some hopes that revenue can improve and a turnaround can be achieved.

Harvey Norman Operations

This is where it gets tricky. But that is investing and its fun when its tricky and unpredictable. If it is predictable then its really boring.

Looking at Harvey Norman's Revenue Update


We are interested in knowing from April to Sep 2023 how it has went. We know that there is only a modest 1% fall from July to Sep 2023. Considering the slow retail landscape, i will take this result all day every day.

Could we actually record a positive sales from April 2023 to June 2023? Looking at the statistics, it is highly likely. At least we should be glad that a larger decrease is seen in January which has already been reflected in Ossia's past result.

However, the profit contribution portion is the bigger worry

Due to Intercompany Brand License Fees, profit has came in at half of the previous period. There are many questions to ponder. We know it was introduced in 2023 but was it in Jan or in April? How is this fees expensed? 

In any sense, i feel this big drop in profit might affect the profitability. We will get a real 100% feel of it when Ossia releases its results. 

After all, in its 6 months results from Oct 22 to Mar 23, there are only 3 months of 2023 and in the 3 months of 2022 there was 6% growth in revenue in the SG and MY sales but profit actually increased 4.5% in the 6 months.


Digging deeper, we found the reason for a weaker SG and MY profit contribution that might be a big worry for Ossia. Fortunately, the business's sales have held up quite well and operationally they are fine its just an internal charging via increase in branding fees. I might have been tempted to consider adding if the profits was 24.44 million instead of 13.1 million. 

As of what i have seen, the answer is an easy no. Considering the 1.8 cents of dividend paid out this year, the current price of 0.149 still puts it at a relatively high position this year. I am afraid that the 6 months of brand licensing fees might put profitability under higher pressure and this would be a new norm going forward.

A profit reduction in the associate of anything less than 40% would be a great joy to behold.

Though if i actually get it right that associate profit fell by over would be really wtf.