tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47976000419375897892024-03-28T03:11:44.430-07:00Investing Thoughts zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.comBlogger190125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-47753777453503974642024-03-28T03:11:00.000-07:002024-03-28T03:11:05.780-07:00(March 2024 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZliWRwgsbAA95tFQFoaiURpgzpi7kkOr-5qJ0lG-4ms0spmkWhlmiIB32rsgDmnrnqA3ivoi4BgvvhPRBGXSlvldMaoLGXK8KGlvuCgGqVXh-XYACvI4eTzJCnqTvD3OK-fXuFYYNGRFKJebASyBWKBE5O5LWcJFXcUgL7FAL5doccUkyGaiW6Y70M30/s485/abcacsa.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="485" height="379" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZliWRwgsbAA95tFQFoaiURpgzpi7kkOr-5qJ0lG-4ms0spmkWhlmiIB32rsgDmnrnqA3ivoi4BgvvhPRBGXSlvldMaoLGXK8KGlvuCgGqVXh-XYACvI4eTzJCnqTvD3OK-fXuFYYNGRFKJebASyBWKBE5O5LWcJFXcUgL7FAL5doccUkyGaiW6Y70M30/w480-h379/abcacsa.PNG" width="480" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>March 2024 R</b><b>eturns: -2.93%</b></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; text-align: center;"><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: start;"></p><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: start;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: -0.07%</b></div><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 74.21%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">There is nothing much to report about with regards to March as companies already reported their results in February.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">One thought that i had in mind was whether to shift <i><b>Huationg Global</b></i> out of the portfolio in <b>this imaginary portfolio</b> as well as my real portfolio.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Why sell out?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">-Despite decent results, one of the major shareholders was disposing shares and as such it might have proved tough for the stock to record any capital gains</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">-On the other hand, dividends was conservative and somewhat not really ideal.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Why not sell out?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">-Does not make sense to sell out of a stock that is <2 PE and has good cashflow and reduced debt</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">-Increase in refundable deposit might signal higher dormitory revenue moving forward</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">-Effort needed to replace the stock. As always, if there is something else that caught my eye then it would make the switch more attractive. Push/Pull.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">With this thought parked somewhere at the back of my mind, i embarked on a trip to Korea in March. After returning, my mind is <b>pretty much set on not selling for the time being</b>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><u>So what happened in the trip to Korea?</u></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><u><br /></u></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I met a fan who is also from Singapore. It happened just so that we were both there to support the same group and i had a chit chat with him.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Turns out that he works in a foreign owned construction firm in Singapore and in the finance department.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">We then had some chit-chat with regards to the construction sector the past years and in 2023/2024. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I mentioned that dormitory prices have been increasing and asked if he was aware of it. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Turns out that he does know the prices of the dormitories that his company has been paying and the terms. This instantly sparked my interest to know more and i also treated him a meal as well.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><u><br /></u></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9Qcf266Bq4PbqR8d6Vga7UFKy25Sfhyphenhyphena9LaBmjUEu6Mo_T8OW9j52T5qgEdhDMYndVmv7ZLNM6vtp-RtHH0HsOGdAeX5tPlvGHuHCsALdRLpWY2LzTyXY5wlIxNeJTyMLoCRM2oN1AoGsliXJ-VsJh_fBA02uBvJk1r8w1-vNR7UhUom80uy2-Lu0ui8/s358/abcacsa.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="84" data-original-width="358" height="75" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9Qcf266Bq4PbqR8d6Vga7UFKy25Sfhyphenhyphena9LaBmjUEu6Mo_T8OW9j52T5qgEdhDMYndVmv7ZLNM6vtp-RtHH0HsOGdAeX5tPlvGHuHCsALdRLpWY2LzTyXY5wlIxNeJTyMLoCRM2oN1AoGsliXJ-VsJh_fBA02uBvJk1r8w1-vNR7UhUom80uy2-Lu0ui8/s320/abcacsa.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Huationg Global Dormitory Revenue from its Results)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><u><br /></u></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">It is always good to hear from a view of a customer.</div><br />From my understanding, some of the dormitories that they are paying could easily go up to 660 per bed per month. This is of course dependent on where they stay etc. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">z</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">After typing for so long, the question would be ? does he know anything about Coastal Dormitory? Turns out he does.....so i was able to get the rate that his company is paying currently as well as when was the last time the price was changed and more information such as prices in the past year etc.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><b>Unfortunately</b> Coastal Dormitory is actually one of the 'cheapo' dormitories around. As you can see from the 2H 2023 results, price per bed is only 395 when beds can be going up to 600+. Due to its inaccessible location and being located far from many construction projects apart from the T5.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I will not be saying the price that they are paying as it is sensitive information (lol). But all i can say is that i expect 1H 2024 Revenue to be higher than 2H 2023.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Low Teens increase(from 2H 2023) in revenue is something that i would expect to see based on my understanding. However this is subjective because some folks might have renewed earlier while some later and as such rates can vary for everyone altogether as well.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">So for now i will be staying put and holding my position (at least until the AGM is over, which i hope i would have time to attend)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-htHLp6-SokgOkfYdDrNl4PiF6-I7r8_sYAImGJZfH5h9IvDd_I275uvStDKzjdT-vW5sBz0YQgAbGZMzbjvNiTO7QbXk7WupA4f77t7Fg5R46LPtR8DZRD_VNgrSzaZa0GRHDzyzcLeNl8QiTTAW-Du0rfD0THMxfCa1U9bCuNfboAXFNPGs4GeIhvY/s4000/20240316_124624.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2252" data-original-width="4000" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-htHLp6-SokgOkfYdDrNl4PiF6-I7r8_sYAImGJZfH5h9IvDd_I275uvStDKzjdT-vW5sBz0YQgAbGZMzbjvNiTO7QbXk7WupA4f77t7Fg5R46LPtR8DZRD_VNgrSzaZa0GRHDzyzcLeNl8QiTTAW-Du0rfD0THMxfCa1U9bCuNfboAXFNPGs4GeIhvY/w581-h327/20240316_124624.jpg" width="581" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimbHAFguMZkX5jrR4sn19W9UMAigkFZMRUYLzD4U-W1ySrwNLhC7F8RB91lby1wKTZqFoyqYSHFqnKslHrx7QiU909K_P4uhnh7wxVPwET4IsqHpFFjkBaczEQqQgh4kT7FYiCbIeTZxtg67SrZ6HapxyS8vQ6KWrXgTJdKZXaK_5qYHD2Gke_BIz8DN0/s3045/edit1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3045" data-original-width="1720" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimbHAFguMZkX5jrR4sn19W9UMAigkFZMRUYLzD4U-W1ySrwNLhC7F8RB91lby1wKTZqFoyqYSHFqnKslHrx7QiU909K_P4uhnh7wxVPwET4IsqHpFFjkBaczEQqQgh4kT7FYiCbIeTZxtg67SrZ6HapxyS8vQ6KWrXgTJdKZXaK_5qYHD2Gke_BIz8DN0/w297-h526/edit1.jpg" width="297" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmYGQL-1EixHfqKEF5UIFc_4y87s8lNCiOTPiUOq-5O15cVyYWL4rmmy5QUGETkSlrFFE07Gz8L9sYXVhliIxASZpcah4nGYkDBjuMGLLpo4LO7wyz9vV-KHZiKdV1HnLOvvvwgdkucc5WR1cNSf9pPP_djaXVaG0OaxUUDmZcmzgcdFDNBSndf170fUw/s2248/20240317_203012%20edit.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2248" data-original-width="1874" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmYGQL-1EixHfqKEF5UIFc_4y87s8lNCiOTPiUOq-5O15cVyYWL4rmmy5QUGETkSlrFFE07Gz8L9sYXVhliIxASZpcah4nGYkDBjuMGLLpo4LO7wyz9vV-KHZiKdV1HnLOvvvwgdkucc5WR1cNSf9pPP_djaXVaG0OaxUUDmZcmzgcdFDNBSndf170fUw/w385-h462/20240317_203012%20edit.jpg" width="385" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-30879208142099172262024-03-23T07:06:00.000-07:002024-03-23T07:06:17.943-07:00(Results Released Thoughts) Dream International<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Back in January, i released a <a href="https://zzxbzzinvesting.blogspot.com/2024/01/previewing-dream-international-fy-2023.html">preview of my thoughts</a> on the results.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The concise portion was what i wrote below.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><u><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Concise Version</span></b></u></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">2023 Revenue Fall Compared to 2022 is likely, with any growth in profits to come from margin expansion / revenue growth in Plush Stuffed Toy.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Revenue from Top Customer in 2022 will fall in 2023. For 2023 revenue, Japan and China should see revenue growth while US it should see revenue decrease compared to 2022.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I am still optimistic that we will see profit growth for FY 2023 compared to FY 2022.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><u>Safe to say. Everything is correct. </u></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi7EtUZNZVCGrrMq2Mpm-FHiqIvSITvgU-L2jWLEyx9wCiNZY9P2FJ8K9TWpwiXX8-IGh6C1EZeOJ2OxjHSnOcWDHJKEAyearaiyyUPcvAZ_wuep8E91546WIQmthzeXYwTKdo5cQwj83rxgv2Mm3BXudLRRzi2PAhxIYZVH1V98peZISv4AebRHs9ZuF4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="5184" data-original-width="3456" height="559" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi7EtUZNZVCGrrMq2Mpm-FHiqIvSITvgU-L2jWLEyx9wCiNZY9P2FJ8K9TWpwiXX8-IGh6C1EZeOJ2OxjHSnOcWDHJKEAyearaiyyUPcvAZ_wuep8E91546WIQmthzeXYwTKdo5cQwj83rxgv2Mm3BXudLRRzi2PAhxIYZVH1V98peZISv4AebRHs9ZuF4=w373-h559" width="373" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(This image probably describes my mood/emotions after seeing the results)</span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><u><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">What I like about the results</span></u></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">1) Since everything i mentioned is correct, then there is nothing to point out. But something incredible would be......<b>its increase in cash position</b>. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The company started 2023 with <b>761 million HKD cash</b> and current liabilities of <b><u>1126 million HKD</u></b>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">At 30 June 2023, it has <b>845 million HKD cash</b> and current liabilities of <u><b>1003 million HKD</b></u>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">At 31 December 2023, it has <b>1390 million HKD Cash</b> and current liabilities of <b><u>896 million HKD</u></b>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This to me is some remarkable cash generation year.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg4qO3oGC1NF2fzj8ljvUshZUk11p9325yAXGDrH15LRI_hzZJcEBBB2hhjJt8AcRCqFf8T25sYyRLRYmJn7GE3QwoTETJoksFVoWCvGoBBsbwVHT3DO3mbIfmTd9QLLXe4wpPquVgK7l_39XUWcVq4jdEBlHhE-SAvxwB6ilZrSpZbJojLAbRvc-bd_2E" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="656" height="505" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg4qO3oGC1NF2fzj8ljvUshZUk11p9325yAXGDrH15LRI_hzZJcEBBB2hhjJt8AcRCqFf8T25sYyRLRYmJn7GE3QwoTETJoksFVoWCvGoBBsbwVHT3DO3mbIfmTd9QLLXe4wpPquVgK7l_39XUWcVq4jdEBlHhE-SAvxwB6ilZrSpZbJojLAbRvc-bd_2E=w402-h505" width="402" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(At 31 December 2023)</span></div><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8KKiAwqmmPwJqrVlYB61snQLOBfczzEUZqqKOHm1zkTDnvU_JVEkB6-40ulzGpghayHI_gGGqy8DKVJePgOMMgi7OmxLASof3kkp5gDGH7aC0bi5qh-CZxgQGhdqJz9uAuXwJKBfcSVp2vBzvLUq6CY2gF7gjBQX6eMNgxuCTX1VmJe6WZMBsqp6TUkg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="671" height="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8KKiAwqmmPwJqrVlYB61snQLOBfczzEUZqqKOHm1zkTDnvU_JVEkB6-40ulzGpghayHI_gGGqy8DKVJePgOMMgi7OmxLASof3kkp5gDGH7aC0bi5qh-CZxgQGhdqJz9uAuXwJKBfcSVp2vBzvLUq6CY2gF7gjBQX6eMNgxuCTX1VmJe6WZMBsqp6TUkg=w414-h484" width="414" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(At 30 June 2023)</span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">2) <b>Adaptability of its production</b>. With its top customer in 2022 cutting its orders and resulting in a revenue fall of close to 1 billion hkd or 50%....Dream was able to claw back in some ways and tap on Customer A and C which contributed a gain of close to 400 million.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgiED-RysaF1WStBuQYPUGEcxRr0pnGxbrheNwtjhyeHd9QyaNq9fydlzUEHAMzGvld9d4eXhoGBH5xsbCJ9F_VS_KEtoOlkYyOFxVAT3BH3vo3NolnMVV2K7EZh4ExVohq9LqxNBCudE8b9VbmjiCapfPSz02jcEljA-oZLBkZd6MYgImhltgcmRkRGnU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="202" data-original-width="592" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgiED-RysaF1WStBuQYPUGEcxRr0pnGxbrheNwtjhyeHd9QyaNq9fydlzUEHAMzGvld9d4eXhoGBH5xsbCJ9F_VS_KEtoOlkYyOFxVAT3BH3vo3NolnMVV2K7EZh4ExVohq9LqxNBCudE8b9VbmjiCapfPSz02jcEljA-oZLBkZd6MYgImhltgcmRkRGnU=w464-h158" width="464" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />As a whole, revenue still fell by around 900 million or around 15%. This was kind of expected looking at the export data as well as how the toy companies have done in 2023 amidst a bad retail environment of overstocking etc.</span><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">3) <b>Margins. </b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhSuWwfHVdfrPNoLlPpFUTDRtLX0dKcojBZIwhAmEfjWm8Hd_WFaqtW-dpZxuNTgIqLmNO53VSIH5MZKOYCjdBRLL1ywrfXaLb7AZNv-aVMYz-k4emQCLqJldNkAgHsWMJMeZuNPKFMANPhAy4Gwwc9VxFWNklICFDZLBkzApssoBvMx6R2brT4v5RkQkU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="823" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhSuWwfHVdfrPNoLlPpFUTDRtLX0dKcojBZIwhAmEfjWm8Hd_WFaqtW-dpZxuNTgIqLmNO53VSIH5MZKOYCjdBRLL1ywrfXaLb7AZNv-aVMYz-k4emQCLqJldNkAgHsWMJMeZuNPKFMANPhAy4Gwwc9VxFWNklICFDZLBkzApssoBvMx6R2brT4v5RkQkU=w538-h303" width="538" /><br /></a><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />A question on the minds of many will be whether the margins are a fluke in 1H 2023. After all with plush stuffed toys 30.17% margin , many might think that it is a one-off. While margins in 2H 2023 did not improve, it still is remarkable at 28% as it is the highest 2H margins. </span><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The 17% margin for its plastic figures is also laudable considering revenue for 2H is one of the lowest since Covid Started.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Interestingly enough, utilisation rate for 2023 is 84% with lower labour cost compared to 2022 which has higher revenue, higher labour cost but utilisation rate of only 80%.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">So that is some food for thought.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Overall, 26.83% Gross Margin for 2H 2023 is the highest since 2018, and also i believe the highest in its history.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="color: black;"><b><u><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">How about 2024 then?</span></u></b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Well at current stage, we are only about 3 months in. From whatever data that i have seen across the board, it is relatively mixed. Which means i am pretty sure there is <b>no positive profit alert coming for now.</b></span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Funko's revenue guidance for 2024 is actually similar to 2023. Therefore, it is rather unlikely that we will see any revenue growth from that end. Even if there is, it might not be significant.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Theme Park Demand ? . I guess we have to see the guidance given from Oriental Land in April before making a more informed decision.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Export Data for Jan and Feb seems muted, lower than 2023 by around 20% . Though to be fair, 2H 2023 Japan Export compared to 1H 2023 was 40% increase but revenue is only 9% for Dream. Therefore the indicator's accuracy leaves much to be questioned.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black;">For Industrial Index of Production (</span><span style="background-color: transparent;">Manufacture of games and toys) 2024's first 2 months is about 4.5% higher.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There is also Customer C, which increased its revenue contribution by 30%....</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It really is still early days i feel. </span></span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">K-Pop Pictures Spamming Time.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZt3c1eWDOZE35XaIqfGA3FcSm1WLLWWIKE9Fn6j4Kl-byep5USchOyUnCmmvk-ip-EQD_et3cyVyzRcL9Lxlt-MlXBM5n5UOdFctyq-fGpsT8xCE8sxwQSrFXGesnr1cWtS_MgkfWz0oNabp8iqLajEWiNPkr5sMP9479a6agWIyEY73NmpPndf0FubY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3389" data-original-width="3354" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZt3c1eWDOZE35XaIqfGA3FcSm1WLLWWIKE9Fn6j4Kl-byep5USchOyUnCmmvk-ip-EQD_et3cyVyzRcL9Lxlt-MlXBM5n5UOdFctyq-fGpsT8xCE8sxwQSrFXGesnr1cWtS_MgkfWz0oNabp8iqLajEWiNPkr5sMP9479a6agWIyEY73NmpPndf0FubY=w394-h397" width="394" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(It really is anyone's guess at this point)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgedWFmhTkRw0AJqpAFabKH8_QzCJyWLCOCO8b-ZW9MAZjqmjNz_GB6SDtWJ543jfjGMEwh1cf9C653CazKzHubJvteWOg7sd-s8UI3DKeg4jZr13JUEDDtCP4XdCBL4MbhmQMCiKZrVDXPJ44UTlvM0l49xThyPa9nZ4AJrbx5SmOqP0j4RwsrIlP6pUg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3417" data-original-width="4255" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgedWFmhTkRw0AJqpAFabKH8_QzCJyWLCOCO8b-ZW9MAZjqmjNz_GB6SDtWJ543jfjGMEwh1cf9C653CazKzHubJvteWOg7sd-s8UI3DKeg4jZr13JUEDDtCP4XdCBL4MbhmQMCiKZrVDXPJ44UTlvM0l49xThyPa9nZ4AJrbx5SmOqP0j4RwsrIlP6pUg" width="401" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(10/10 Results)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxETne7rtYaDJOx_B2O0z4djgzkSAM5NGFLszNX9bub4p2eDKxq4_By2WPUJCwZFQ0ONUKGPDdd6LG8joVIQKq-ys0WIIDPdivriwpd_8_L_kZGRc14IvL4gETfqZ2kVjnNZBWhilt4PwIHk8W5gVpNV6TUlPvcbhRazWTMYANW8PNmcPO2l-019rBP3E" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2248" data-original-width="1874" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxETne7rtYaDJOx_B2O0z4djgzkSAM5NGFLszNX9bub4p2eDKxq4_By2WPUJCwZFQ0ONUKGPDdd6LG8joVIQKq-ys0WIIDPdivriwpd_8_L_kZGRc14IvL4gETfqZ2kVjnNZBWhilt4PwIHk8W5gVpNV6TUlPvcbhRazWTMYANW8PNmcPO2l-019rBP3E=w378-h454" width="378" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxETne7rtYaDJOx_B2O0z4djgzkSAM5NGFLszNX9bub4p2eDKxq4_By2WPUJCwZFQ0ONUKGPDdd6LG8joVIQKq-ys0WIIDPdivriwpd_8_L_kZGRc14IvL4gETfqZ2kVjnNZBWhilt4PwIHk8W5gVpNV6TUlPvcbhRazWTMYANW8PNmcPO2l-019rBP3E" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgocFpFZF08dYJ0c1NmViliDUdLPotTzRNJz_JzX9OFWr8ewjppprT_sks5rLZ9orW5E3-QTNMw296yss2uPKQKMRan6EqNPHePz-u5GUn5ls3xL5zZ2vJjP51N-jsjgQAELQzOsM376kSCXZzXGFbPsf3wP37y3KSP0EB9T7yWhptdbxaA1YMtIprWp-k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="535" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgocFpFZF08dYJ0c1NmViliDUdLPotTzRNJz_JzX9OFWr8ewjppprT_sks5rLZ9orW5E3-QTNMw296yss2uPKQKMRan6EqNPHePz-u5GUn5ls3xL5zZ2vJjP51N-jsjgQAELQzOsM376kSCXZzXGFbPsf3wP37y3KSP0EB9T7yWhptdbxaA1YMtIprWp-k=w301-h535" width="301" /></a></div><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMbAdVTtP9_iFupYj0bC8a1C0xf9205yP3yUUAcUeGwm2XFnQckTIoeF7lRGAajgdlFHWWRCgbH9P4h_j_zkgHesllts3ObNla7nLc8uP_UFSQyYifNtbgn6vOjY669_Jir8D0TitqVqeug1q407YQu9PEmoROFfrMWUQau2qAj-bQbga3cp-K927FUJU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3994" data-original-width="1951" height="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMbAdVTtP9_iFupYj0bC8a1C0xf9205yP3yUUAcUeGwm2XFnQckTIoeF7lRGAajgdlFHWWRCgbH9P4h_j_zkgHesllts3ObNla7nLc8uP_UFSQyYifNtbgn6vOjY669_Jir8D0TitqVqeug1q407YQu9PEmoROFfrMWUQau2qAj-bQbga3cp-K927FUJU=w306-h626" width="306" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKTPxWL1zalIBKLZHWFSHcTW34LlfMx3xdJLcZMRIviIm_XkC8O4YITUjCPmAmPULeK6mQWNnY3MQoBMPb3bircxx_C8f3Mg7dk1RmLv99qYCb3BetdlWrMA8V_96VSKiNfw4Jg0NQVzLqfbbGxJAqSHYvRzs8NfPHzmreoDgMYZA8ihbOGn5tCJ60qNA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4323" data-original-width="2418" height="529" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKTPxWL1zalIBKLZHWFSHcTW34LlfMx3xdJLcZMRIviIm_XkC8O4YITUjCPmAmPULeK6mQWNnY3MQoBMPb3bircxx_C8f3Mg7dk1RmLv99qYCb3BetdlWrMA8V_96VSKiNfw4Jg0NQVzLqfbbGxJAqSHYvRzs8NfPHzmreoDgMYZA8ihbOGn5tCJ60qNA=w295-h529" width="295" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><br /></span><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-18085704149634637312024-02-29T07:54:00.000-08:002024-02-29T07:54:59.367-08:00(February 2024 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhC_ANBkmIvsVyimuiIs2QHreS88DUQjCWoyMU6oeamixqMt2P7eVT4XVnSVzpTnHK4UE0lEnp9MkrjEa1jWHdduO78etmkmVgLmmjDSh6CbV2LCN2_rHVG9vrKlaZ4NhLKL6UgRbdY36oiAY0y7dZKhYXcEnVTPDTrHcTqIwqVqUmqe8kea7IN6oH5ts8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="474" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhC_ANBkmIvsVyimuiIs2QHreS88DUQjCWoyMU6oeamixqMt2P7eVT4XVnSVzpTnHK4UE0lEnp9MkrjEa1jWHdduO78etmkmVgLmmjDSh6CbV2LCN2_rHVG9vrKlaZ4NhLKL6UgRbdY36oiAY0y7dZKhYXcEnVTPDTrHcTqIwqVqUmqe8kea7IN6oH5ts8=w452-h366" width="452" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>February 2024 R</b><b>eturns: 3.51%</b></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: start;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: start;"></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 2.94%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 79.47%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Main Companies that gave a positive return include UMS, Straco and Centurion</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I believe the returns might look very different if i did the recording on 1st March as many companies reported result on 29 Feb itself.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Nevertheless. lets review the many companies that reported results</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><b><i>Straco</i></b> - Perhaps the latest addition but i think the results is a big disappointment.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Q3 = 35m revenue and 16.3m profit</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Q4 = 15m revenue and 2.9m profit.....</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Moving forward, it puts some ? to how we should see and value this.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">A company earning 12m per year vs a company earning 65m per year ....the range in between is too big. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><b>Score: 2/10</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><b><i>UMS</i></b> - Always a stable dividend and results seem to be stable as well. With new factory operational in penang and expectation of uptick in order flow, nothing much to worry about as it has navigated poor semiconductor 2023 very well. Just have to see neighbor stocks *coughs* AEM to know.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Score: 5/10</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><i><b>Sutl Enterprise</b></i> - Results Stable, Financial Position Improves. Have to see if 2024 is a year where overseas projects get traction. Locally, need to keep an eye on cost as expenses has increased more than revenue.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Score: 6/10</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><b><i>Haw Par</i></b> - Big Thumbs Up from Me. I like the results very much. Revenue Increase from 148 million to 216 million</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">The increase in revenue of its healthcare goods is something very heartening to see.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">1H 2022: Revenue 86.7m. Segment Profit 17.7m</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">2H 2022: Revenue 77.3m. Segment Profit 22.4m</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">1H 2023: Revenue 101.7m Segment Profit 29.1m</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">2H 2023: Revenue 111.7m Segment Profit 35.6m</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Overall it remains a very deep value stock. In fact i think if it considers spinning the healthcare business it would look good. But the odds of such things are not high and it is not worth thinking much about. Full Year 40 cents Dividend is acceptable. Not Great but since the business has done well and shown good growth, there is nothing to worry about especially it is in very strong cash position.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Score: 9/10</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><i><b>Centurion</b></i> - Stable. Not much Surprises. If core earnings can maintain or grow 10-20% would be great.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Score: 5/10</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><i><b>Huationg Global</b></i> - This is actually tough for me to comment and give an honest take. Perhaps i talk about the negatives first. The same dividend amount is perhaps the most upset part of things.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">The second most upset part of things will be the dormitory margins. In 1H 2023 , 8.8m segment profit</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">However, in full year it is 8m segment profit.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">However if we were to include the 'Unallocated' expenses. 1H 2023 Segment Profit will be 3.862m while in 2H 2023 it will be 3.888m. Which looks like it remains stable despite slight revenue improvements.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">3rdly, they moved backed the asset that was held for sale back to non-current assets again. Which indicate no near term intentions to sell the property again.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">Moving on to the positives and maybes....... 73 million of Net Cash From Operating Activities. This is contributed by an increase of 27 million of trade and other payables. Could the additional refundable deposits indicate a higher rate moving forward?</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">1stly. Cash Position Improved from 23 million in 2022 to 70 million in 2023. Of course part of it is contract liabilities and part of it would be from the dormitory deposits. Nevertheless, this is a good improvement as the cash flow of the company has improved and if high payables is due to dormitory then it will be good.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhT4wfbFn2OFF-NJZCX4rW2bQBa7uCugP7egHrFkj852FxMhFvbBNrdEbKPVe4bwFBoDbhZk7KhFWS6eVbAg2mTRDaHXYdSNFaGHRL94cACT4w_R12TFacxilWokF4i2plvR9C6vCc9n8VD7p5av7rYq-lnjsoToFAWakMsucqQjkaw7CpAJHJhW9zQ35k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="144" data-original-width="506" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhT4wfbFn2OFF-NJZCX4rW2bQBa7uCugP7egHrFkj852FxMhFvbBNrdEbKPVe4bwFBoDbhZk7KhFWS6eVbAg2mTRDaHXYdSNFaGHRL94cACT4w_R12TFacxilWokF4i2plvR9C6vCc9n8VD7p5av7rYq-lnjsoToFAWakMsucqQjkaw7CpAJHJhW9zQ35k=w422-h120" width="422" /></a></div><br />2ndly. Improvements in Civil Engineering Contract Margins. <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpYfDL9dGcvxXhyzfjJx9zHui9qjn9l921w_ygMgd1lhKjKfF5KB4ZyLHVvS2lmHm9OX2zz11yPNP3PvlphaculvUpX8AHCdbzdxCwzCNmRoVpUATQMaCD7MTdwarRP9QIx-n-B1jo64rzxKK1cMpHJNrPmVgghs9iRa1AytcTxtjXvB72jx31Ae6JdPI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="123" data-original-width="593" height="91" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpYfDL9dGcvxXhyzfjJx9zHui9qjn9l921w_ygMgd1lhKjKfF5KB4ZyLHVvS2lmHm9OX2zz11yPNP3PvlphaculvUpX8AHCdbzdxCwzCNmRoVpUATQMaCD7MTdwarRP9QIx-n-B1jo64rzxKK1cMpHJNrPmVgghs9iRa1AytcTxtjXvB72jx31Ae6JdPI" width="441" /></a></div><br />This is coupled with an orderbook of 506.5 million. A huge increase from End of 2022 whereby it was 415 million. A slight increase from 30 June 2023 where it was 484.4 million.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Lastly. Overall Increase in Net Profit.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtK0R7c1dRcg-w-QzI8rMsnarLIQARS_KJ-dc3JtR-30FcB-J4bp9JebABYppXXMQwXKQg0WG9UeJ7LTEqfTUDGeDcjARlzOpM3xkERs1xv0kNKhx9hrjsVG2PpoAP1hJ49oBRwWBIQA7fvQp3n-Toq3DVGNxCbV96Vi1LbyTNg1myKzoFBSiz_uepVtM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="740" height="525" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtK0R7c1dRcg-w-QzI8rMsnarLIQARS_KJ-dc3JtR-30FcB-J4bp9JebABYppXXMQwXKQg0WG9UeJ7LTEqfTUDGeDcjARlzOpM3xkERs1xv0kNKhx9hrjsVG2PpoAP1hJ49oBRwWBIQA7fvQp3n-Toq3DVGNxCbV96Vi1LbyTNg1myKzoFBSiz_uepVtM=w551-h525" width="551" /></a></div><br />It is always good to see that profit before income has improved even after deducting other income.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Also, the lower loss allowance might signal a better business environment moving forward.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I would give this result.........<b>7/10</b>. Considering that the current PE is 1.83 and cash position improved with positive cash flow it deserves a decent score instead of a fail score. But i think there are a lot of questions to think and ponder about.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-92135401224372262802024-01-31T10:48:00.000-08:002024-01-31T10:48:15.584-08:00Previewing Dream International FY 2023 (Revenue Fall is likely) (Deep Dive)<p>Disclaimer: This was meant to be published on 20 Jan but i think i have missed it.</p><p>If this post is published, it probably means that i had a good week(on 20 Jan) and decided to release my thoughts/predictions on the 2H and FY Results. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEitKZfNgKsJ3ckXgqprnNP0GCbIjdEJutKDeL0OtNuxXRii3NV_26Kf6XjGQr1u6_TMh7J38M788uh3_SlAuD4STFViqCPEk0_vThNLToEnvdpA8FeRVd4S8F918z34hsKTJlWDhc2WxHt4bHJosGwGrvJUNSOOnwefWBJldfvJr5O0WgBH9E7IyN8JDVw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEitKZfNgKsJ3ckXgqprnNP0GCbIjdEJutKDeL0OtNuxXRii3NV_26Kf6XjGQr1u6_TMh7J38M788uh3_SlAuD4STFViqCPEk0_vThNLToEnvdpA8FeRVd4S8F918z34hsKTJlWDhc2WxHt4bHJosGwGrvJUNSOOnwefWBJldfvJr5O0WgBH9E7IyN8JDVw=w325-h577" width="325" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Had a good week)</div><p></p><p>For Folks who are curious on how the previous time it went, i wrote a <a href="https://zzxbzzinvesting.blogspot.com/2023/08/previewing-dream-international-1h-2023.html">similar preview</a> for 1H 2023.</p><p><u><b>Concise Version</b></u></p><p>2023 Revenue Fall Compared to 2022 is likely, with any growth in profits to come from margin expansion / revenue growth in Plush Stuffed Toy.</p><p>Revenue from Top Customer in 2022 will fall in 2023. For 2023 revenue, Japan and China should see revenue growth while US it should see revenue decrease compared to 2022.</p><p>I am still optimistic that we will see profit growth for FY 2023 compared to FY 2022.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Long Version</b></p><p><b><u>Negative Factors affecting the company</u></b></p><p><b>Funko continues to show negative growth.</b></p><p>Funko, its main customer, continue its weak guidance that it has previously guided and this meant that we are going to see only slight improvements in Sales in 1H compared to 2H.</p><p>Funko recorded 491 million in revenue in 1H 2023. While 312 million is recorded in 3Q 2023, a guidance of full year 1065 million to 1105 million meant that 2H would come in at 574 million to 614 million.</p><p>A range of 16% to 25% growth compared to 1H 2023. But 2H 2022 was at 698 million revenue. Therefore this would represent a drop of 12 to 17% in revenue.</p><p>If we were to microscope it a bit further, Funko's inventory has been falling since 2022 and with a weaker revenue, i estimate it to be lower or at current levels. This implies lesser addition and would affect suppliers like Dream.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzHfOPt5bjq_DtKUH0PRMU1cLeV9qwZ0i4xzETH-mHjNK6vJVy6C9ydBa8bfp9hIkmUkoarjF7uRcv4tof16e-gQFK7jpiB7NfXdRVoLWXkPsYHgaYt8a0pbf26dggtEla4Vh3GDJS04bfyapqIyOfBEg818cX3txwyQ3vOk37Ne4VUmcxCPPGgi1MY_E" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="88" data-original-width="699" height="67" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzHfOPt5bjq_DtKUH0PRMU1cLeV9qwZ0i4xzETH-mHjNK6vJVy6C9ydBa8bfp9hIkmUkoarjF7uRcv4tof16e-gQFK7jpiB7NfXdRVoLWXkPsYHgaYt8a0pbf26dggtEla4Vh3GDJS04bfyapqIyOfBEg818cX3txwyQ3vOk37Ne4VUmcxCPPGgi1MY_E=w538-h67" width="538" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Inventory fell from 246.4 m to 162.1m. Roughly 35% Fall)</div><br /><p></p>Therefore I estimate a drop of 15% to 30% in revenue in 2H 2023 compared to 2H 2022 but an increase of likely 10-20% from 1H 2023 for Revenue from Funko<p></p><p>Toy Industry in US continue to see headwinds.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBJ-3S5QTUah-g_9Nx7wuRyUfhD6-jF2kKED3G15Z9pvDtnNmPiHGTvNitA-UsUyMH1Ba1yc5TSpC2MbW00cgBy1mXsrjjacMogIDK9ZlH_Cj5tgI6mqfwfhYa9cq09dQADRyidZzHTkyqgRqFtMyUHtaspwA3aQuVPtlHt2pSfjLPek8ZqLOKl-tK1a0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="665" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBJ-3S5QTUah-g_9Nx7wuRyUfhD6-jF2kKED3G15Z9pvDtnNmPiHGTvNitA-UsUyMH1Ba1yc5TSpC2MbW00cgBy1mXsrjjacMogIDK9ZlH_Cj5tgI6mqfwfhYa9cq09dQADRyidZzHTkyqgRqFtMyUHtaspwA3aQuVPtlHt2pSfjLPek8ZqLOKl-tK1a0=w318-h392" width="318" /></a></div><br />When news articles of such is being published, it possibly bodes an outlook that is not as rosy. As Dream does have Hasbro as one of its customers as well, it would definitely affect Dream's ability to make up for the shortfall from other customers.<p></p><p><u><b>Export Data for Vietnam</b></u></p><p>Looking at the 'Toys, games, and sports requisites' segment of exports for Vietnam,</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpEgD4e7eI0C-AyzszqewCWaxdgs0rogVubWMGc4cAkuOcPKUbskaeN5SdaDgQatVLUfrJgQiefiak34idripDfrnzIchFrBD6q8UKUFhim2Cz5Km4EXO6rv8iDn0Y2DwFRtIcJoxGELjgIV-GvSeNRIlx3WmZl996-jgKru3G54Oq0FSfZMQUy2K2f0A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="102" data-original-width="242" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpEgD4e7eI0C-AyzszqewCWaxdgs0rogVubWMGc4cAkuOcPKUbskaeN5SdaDgQatVLUfrJgQiefiak34idripDfrnzIchFrBD6q8UKUFhim2Cz5Km4EXO6rv8iDn0Y2DwFRtIcJoxGELjgIV-GvSeNRIlx3WmZl996-jgKru3G54Oq0FSfZMQUy2K2f0A" width="320" /></a></div><br /></div><br />We can see that export to US has fell in 2023 1H by 25%. Dream International's US Revenue similarly has fallen by a larger amount of 38%.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzbuKG3qMZmUuHkITCuslm7j3-Si4BGA2fUdNkn9ZTPOuNv4fSKvaKIahdY9u2MmM1MFzp-N73tZyd3e1mWidbeWU4JV9CJRCEaOPC5OGixVIvbWuRhr4nPqXKNYogjsQx16q41MHWJA5QPhr0GnLuSD1di54bcZU70Dc6OrHc7raTU6Wt15nuG_Wkc5w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="64" data-original-width="432" height="71" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzbuKG3qMZmUuHkITCuslm7j3-Si4BGA2fUdNkn9ZTPOuNv4fSKvaKIahdY9u2MmM1MFzp-N73tZyd3e1mWidbeWU4JV9CJRCEaOPC5OGixVIvbWuRhr4nPqXKNYogjsQx16q41MHWJA5QPhr0GnLuSD1di54bcZU70Dc6OrHc7raTU6Wt15nuG_Wkc5w=w483-h71" width="483" /></a></div><br />As such, i would probably think that 2023 2H Revenue to US would fall by around 20-30% as similar to my previous estimate.<p></p><p>The good news is that revenue to US in 2022 2H is already lower than 1H which means we are not exactly jumping off from a huge cliff but the difference will still be there.</p><p><b><u>Vietnam Industrial Production Index</u></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPPIcyFzEKYAmKxcGYWMny5vaddAvFWKkMWWsG2sdmR0rXTXVV0DNRjH1yoRL8eUeYJP3wkzMQl6GFJF9vwLqr7Kjkvp9qmr1MBw1fgr_R3avqF0ORb0BEXUJ6aJ3euPSGSzytJi8YpjKxLuNSBgAzPpR9gxdxdi8EwNYJ49XJl_Ji9KP_ZyFWu15iD6I" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="146" data-original-width="205" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPPIcyFzEKYAmKxcGYWMny5vaddAvFWKkMWWsG2sdmR0rXTXVV0DNRjH1yoRL8eUeYJP3wkzMQl6GFJF9vwLqr7Kjkvp9qmr1MBw1fgr_R3avqF0ORb0BEXUJ6aJ3euPSGSzytJi8YpjKxLuNSBgAzPpR9gxdxdi8EwNYJ49XJl_Ji9KP_ZyFWu15iD6I" width="320" /></a></div><br />Another possible indicator would be the industrial production. Interesting enough, Dream's Revenue seems to follow the YOY Increase / Decrease in the Index although the magnitude might be different.<p></p><p>As such, as 2023 2H is around <b>8% lower than 2022 2H</b>, i would estimate revenue to be lower in 2H 2023 compared to 2H 2022.</p><p>A slightly brighter spot is that the figures in 2023 2H is higher than 2023 1H</p><p><b>Possible Bright Spots</b></p><p><u><b>Sustained Theme Park Demand</b></u></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjeRRVXhtTM3Yj4aEQ3S7QdUfuFOyui_eOrl3ja2I-KfM5zfn7MiGCepp-29syJHRlUR5llG8WHgKXkqXc4LYX0nd_CZxGEHWZW6btRhtgOkF6l1ujHlrJwsBS4AM3lwnXuZ5R86rpdvbhKO_m5wJOW6yjNfUlLH8cdG3keBFk8ELFBHP6ziqIOR-ny1Q0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="678" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjeRRVXhtTM3Yj4aEQ3S7QdUfuFOyui_eOrl3ja2I-KfM5zfn7MiGCepp-29syJHRlUR5llG8WHgKXkqXc4LYX0nd_CZxGEHWZW6btRhtgOkF6l1ujHlrJwsBS4AM3lwnXuZ5R86rpdvbhKO_m5wJOW6yjNfUlLH8cdG3keBFk8ELFBHP6ziqIOR-ny1Q0=w476-h380" width="476" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjeRRVXhtTM3Yj4aEQ3S7QdUfuFOyui_eOrl3ja2I-KfM5zfn7MiGCepp-29syJHRlUR5llG8WHgKXkqXc4LYX0nd_CZxGEHWZW6btRhtgOkF6l1ujHlrJwsBS4AM3lwnXuZ5R86rpdvbhKO_m5wJOW6yjNfUlLH8cdG3keBFk8ELFBHP6ziqIOR-ny1Q0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNgIUzIXwlWMROSybX2QFBErB5nSUgdxGdL_hYi_78G649RU7Wpf3KqlD5NDnLiTV9hK4I0M7wcVJwLsOm4cWUqNEq8e-SqQau5sW_Kt7XJYWAlxCaDhYaTXRuJCxK4DG90O86qTPyMMkq1qT-1aGhjNVhMSmIt3ZMVBZ0xHQgRD9-l9Q6XNNXxOIzW18" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="341" data-original-width="817" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNgIUzIXwlWMROSybX2QFBErB5nSUgdxGdL_hYi_78G649RU7Wpf3KqlD5NDnLiTV9hK4I0M7wcVJwLsOm4cWUqNEq8e-SqQau5sW_Kt7XJYWAlxCaDhYaTXRuJCxK4DG90O86qTPyMMkq1qT-1aGhjNVhMSmIt3ZMVBZ0xHQgRD9-l9Q6XNNXxOIzW18=w551-h231" width="551" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Plush Stuffed Toys outperformance in 2023 1H Margins)</div><br /></div><br />From my knowledge, Dream International does produce for Theme Parks under the Plush Stuffed Toys Segment<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiEjKQcgZ-EmvSCOcJxq2bYA8tM3N5K2Ub-uQjdo6sulg-7PNCX7Dl3ZfRBGI3B_5JWSAmhm5kngxhapQ9dQqtGuJMMVAnU-NkpQ4HWnvIg-z7Zl-mURCaEJa6hTegdgpJTdtovT8z03MQ8boPMG0eKkEYiEMpgcpCr9UM4RucqK0aY8Mgrpt02kSB89FE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="198" data-original-width="681" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiEjKQcgZ-EmvSCOcJxq2bYA8tM3N5K2Ub-uQjdo6sulg-7PNCX7Dl3ZfRBGI3B_5JWSAmhm5kngxhapQ9dQqtGuJMMVAnU-NkpQ4HWnvIg-z7Zl-mURCaEJa6hTegdgpJTdtovT8z03MQ8boPMG0eKkEYiEMpgcpCr9UM4RucqK0aY8Mgrpt02kSB89FE=w493-h143" width="493" /></a></div><br />Which was one of the reasons i made the trip to Japan Disney to take a look at how many toys are actually produced in Vietnam. I also had to see for myself how the crowd and all is like as well.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgbN2nfk-VhKZ9EMD6xH9UQlfysIpxtxw7-1FxSeqrF5hIA_7RA4eINjJhjXKd5FZtZiN9JBW5ER7YjeVfv3LefYkDFcYX7saxwsV-oCsl8fu4N4mf9blqh-y4XnkJEzQ9_5ZiJCcsWCm2i0bKWQI6I8PMYqz_m2AEkZw6vSKD6W5NoGx7PK7XMFpxUb3I" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgbN2nfk-VhKZ9EMD6xH9UQlfysIpxtxw7-1FxSeqrF5hIA_7RA4eINjJhjXKd5FZtZiN9JBW5ER7YjeVfv3LefYkDFcYX7saxwsV-oCsl8fu4N4mf9blqh-y4XnkJEzQ9_5ZiJCcsWCm2i0bKWQI6I8PMYqz_m2AEkZw6vSKD6W5NoGx7PK7XMFpxUb3I=w307-h544" width="307" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQVY4fXL8nJY_xxajz0jvguz6cZKXdY0vsBR1URKlVlKCr7xxp_yCP2QTYCzYy5Xp5S6pscAiJt7W8KbMarxVWaAvRvX29sOv3nj7lLQVMPmfiNYwn_JXjcAW_3CDBu3KV8QOJxIZT4F6tY4iFmZ4mk9XoJDAbOKmfujxWNF5ad2-GWRLZ8ySx55jIKOc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQVY4fXL8nJY_xxajz0jvguz6cZKXdY0vsBR1URKlVlKCr7xxp_yCP2QTYCzYy5Xp5S6pscAiJt7W8KbMarxVWaAvRvX29sOv3nj7lLQVMPmfiNYwn_JXjcAW_3CDBu3KV8QOJxIZT4F6tY4iFmZ4mk9XoJDAbOKmfujxWNF5ad2-GWRLZ8ySx55jIKOc=w308-h546" width="308" /></a></div>(Seasonal Products I Believe)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p>In the theme park shops, there are definitely more Vietnam made products compared to in the Disney store i saw at Shibuya.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicPVj3cgVL5WYmPIiyqbgnZnTiGkiY2izBR80jp5LTod41TJ7agK-IgHFk5yZtOnH4EncvUk-J2qMFu8cCZC70PWonDyi3KjWSkfoyDqL4QDaup7PGxZ-75eZ589fvNYl_9_aeWKCgBhAA4-AaatpUZZCGXi4BK6K4zPgkuw9eyt2h6-PEfCqvvMWCAqM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="485" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicPVj3cgVL5WYmPIiyqbgnZnTiGkiY2izBR80jp5LTod41TJ7agK-IgHFk5yZtOnH4EncvUk-J2qMFu8cCZC70PWonDyi3KjWSkfoyDqL4QDaup7PGxZ-75eZ589fvNYl_9_aeWKCgBhAA4-AaatpUZZCGXi4BK6K4zPgkuw9eyt2h6-PEfCqvvMWCAqM=w273-h485" width="273" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi--Cl0x4PVv6l8oxhDjaxhcFtrxHcJoAKQiG_4KDtpsSnH99LNza8Io4G5lXSefqQKTbKXMoj1PUFKvP4B0JB3qAKYX_6Xj6LoE-x4YUcUCjEjWQgAzDkE5ERCUukSqjs_Roguy5Y6E4osSE2KlXTlA4EzbOZnhdko7Rp_jd2N6JqhAbCPxWgpWl6lL8o" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="487" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi--Cl0x4PVv6l8oxhDjaxhcFtrxHcJoAKQiG_4KDtpsSnH99LNza8Io4G5lXSefqQKTbKXMoj1PUFKvP4B0JB3qAKYX_6Xj6LoE-x4YUcUCjEjWQgAzDkE5ERCUukSqjs_Roguy5Y6E4osSE2KlXTlA4EzbOZnhdko7Rp_jd2N6JqhAbCPxWgpWl6lL8o=w273-h487" width="273" /></a></div>Regular Product</div><div><br /></div>As Dream has mentioned that they normally receive orders 4-6 months before shipping date, i would say that the 'sustained demand' portion seems to hold some water.<div><br /></div><div>To take a look at other parts to see if the 'sustained demand' analysis will hold, I took a look at merchandise revenue of Oriental Land.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhT6ymIRbwltoMjv4bc5py6Z2YmVUiDp9gMeNHGCxVmHA9n0lPjGtmZ-JvjrAoQ4FEkuWX9xKOlVM-Lb3tciRubSGOzmqhsuWjA8eorxNP8bD-BU3vSMC0amYmy-B66BLQz1-pL7qeNsYyrBxxdnyKByLKjw3th1nqY6DJG6UNIFAgGSq8QkOlSFWqdLj0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="144" data-original-width="559" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhT6ymIRbwltoMjv4bc5py6Z2YmVUiDp9gMeNHGCxVmHA9n0lPjGtmZ-JvjrAoQ4FEkuWX9xKOlVM-Lb3tciRubSGOzmqhsuWjA8eorxNP8bD-BU3vSMC0amYmy-B66BLQz1-pL7qeNsYyrBxxdnyKByLKjw3th1nqY6DJG6UNIFAgGSq8QkOlSFWqdLj0=w515-h132" width="515" /></a></div><br />July to September looks like decent figures for 'sustained demand' as revenue and inventory have largely remained at higher levels. Oriental Land also guided for higher visitorship from October 2023 to March 2024.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcbZkQg2OGiqNwF83nUkpCuFraiK_h0ReGmv7NmlHkFdhYUFhjlItxgNTNe9b-25E9cYi6WKectNPyZS__OS_G6qbqGS-Z9c34Y8quTgR6YjLrUciEmUFW7Fb2FlMiQh4z0JtDmbpV88woxbQ1HKuwddad9aPvEFnqrvzOamzXC400wwzbAhn9RpvmWkI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="962" height="367" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcbZkQg2OGiqNwF83nUkpCuFraiK_h0ReGmv7NmlHkFdhYUFhjlItxgNTNe9b-25E9cYi6WKectNPyZS__OS_G6qbqGS-Z9c34Y8quTgR6YjLrUciEmUFW7Fb2FlMiQh4z0JtDmbpV88woxbQ1HKuwddad9aPvEFnqrvzOamzXC400wwzbAhn9RpvmWkI=w490-h367" width="490" /></a></div><br />It is worth noting that although visitorship will be higher(12.5m from April 2023 to September 2023), the merchandise revenue is actually a lower guidance. Therefore, we would need to monitor to see if it is a conservative guidance or not. </div><div><br /></div><div>Also, recent unfortunate incidents such as earthquakes will always serve as a black swan event that might lower the turnout.<br /><p></p><p><b><u>Exports Data to Japan in 2H Positive.</u></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3f8OQQ-UFhf00zC7cPtsD2WinrqY2GL-vYZcmhwKkRK3l_o3hPFveMMDs2hzqoLHif_zNwujE2hN00-9Ynk0WJISoZkjtT5sfwA0cr0OcrbFi9CWYto2b5rR2IqVPhAug_q8nDgqdcNq5DhZnptC78DnvilZvQESc2VODKP1sRtedSU_pLL0LFYMnWUg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="103" data-original-width="243" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3f8OQQ-UFhf00zC7cPtsD2WinrqY2GL-vYZcmhwKkRK3l_o3hPFveMMDs2hzqoLHif_zNwujE2hN00-9Ynk0WJISoZkjtT5sfwA0cr0OcrbFi9CWYto2b5rR2IqVPhAug_q8nDgqdcNq5DhZnptC78DnvilZvQESc2VODKP1sRtedSU_pLL0LFYMnWUg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Positive for YOY and HOH. As such, I am still largely positive that Revenue from Dream to Japan might surprise on the upside as a result of this increase in export to Japan.<p></p><p><b><u>Cost Remains Acceptable</u></b></p><p>PVC Resin, ABS remain the major raw materials.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjvCLe3aWs1EpPZ9Wja5QaaEWy_DEbZZswhulGoYiePY6vc6Fn36uv_YKkydGdjPo6sDD1FiiZ9HGaZY_RNWmnmgxcseRFGkCkjDvHOvPxt3ngkTNDcOjn9po1E4tYLZpAVPY8jtzyJIpp-vExWcAxdc0xuvoTf7cN-6G6zyuK-DI9pch3JKKzGTUQd7lI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="567" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjvCLe3aWs1EpPZ9Wja5QaaEWy_DEbZZswhulGoYiePY6vc6Fn36uv_YKkydGdjPo6sDD1FiiZ9HGaZY_RNWmnmgxcseRFGkCkjDvHOvPxt3ngkTNDcOjn9po1E4tYLZpAVPY8jtzyJIpp-vExWcAxdc0xuvoTf7cN-6G6zyuK-DI9pch3JKKzGTUQd7lI=w471-h337" width="471" /></a></div><br />PVC Prices in 2022 2H ranged from 5.9k to 7.3k. The range was lower at 5.6k to 6.7k at 1H 2023, and continued to be rangebound of 6000.<p></p><p>As such, i believe margins should be decent, similar to 1H 2023 and better than 2H 2022 as cost is still slowly falling from a high level.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6rAjmJd2EEHhD0rFtF_rRiq2qQAXvZWcklyGg0Fvj0UaCJZTEqMO8U_XN8QzlLQPpuy-vaPr0m4z4GFCS1082H2wfIfZq4fgD4S90Bjw9dwoN3ohEjA2LlQdy71IIp7x8aLo58scDAHh_5J-NS4JKpWcfxbQHyZyLA46bCZ6K90WHypgyy-nxb6KnOaM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="288" data-original-width="529" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6rAjmJd2EEHhD0rFtF_rRiq2qQAXvZWcklyGg0Fvj0UaCJZTEqMO8U_XN8QzlLQPpuy-vaPr0m4z4GFCS1082H2wfIfZq4fgD4S90Bjw9dwoN3ohEjA2LlQdy71IIp7x8aLo58scDAHh_5J-NS4JKpWcfxbQHyZyLA46bCZ6K90WHypgyy-nxb6KnOaM=w471-h256" width="471" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgy8867IP9qirlTICHVXU87oKDo8WOSsUE82_bjDwzYMU6POiIJale-p0ZW74povMlAFvlUCHLdY1Gn4CdNNdndHdzwqO05uHzHtpiR3kxPTboafC-s_biP7wM0MktwaRb7hLlK3q-f4qsMzCTdCBaF-sLUFGDNafWkrfkSYVY4x-8MdrOohncPUvqYfzY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="288" data-original-width="529" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgy8867IP9qirlTICHVXU87oKDo8WOSsUE82_bjDwzYMU6POiIJale-p0ZW74povMlAFvlUCHLdY1Gn4CdNNdndHdzwqO05uHzHtpiR3kxPTboafC-s_biP7wM0MktwaRb7hLlK3q-f4qsMzCTdCBaF-sLUFGDNafWkrfkSYVY4x-8MdrOohncPUvqYfzY=w451-h245" width="451" /></a></div><br /><br /></div>ABS Prices in 2023 compared to 2022, is definitely at a lower level. with price ranging from below 10k to not even 12k in 2023 as compared to 10.5k to 15k range in 2022.<br /><br /><p></p><p>As such, i don't expect negative surprises from cost as well.</p><p><u><b>Regional Export Data</b></u></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiBmWKTH7HAc6ig1u69i5mM2zcOYeTTs0jpQO9sxMXyoD8eKIxJQcHuyCNJqP3d8QSbVRiBXHfsFbJFfcdUIuy0gaJn9l-b_Hl4b_v72UW4iUlr0y00mXbBSbBX87QIm9VD4znqnUy8hkQ96bancd0uTJdL5rR8aqXojhERvN9pj_DA7iiJMkSGejBoAyc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="855" height="118" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiBmWKTH7HAc6ig1u69i5mM2zcOYeTTs0jpQO9sxMXyoD8eKIxJQcHuyCNJqP3d8QSbVRiBXHfsFbJFfcdUIuy0gaJn9l-b_Hl4b_v72UW4iUlr0y00mXbBSbBX87QIm9VD4znqnUy8hkQ96bancd0uTJdL5rR8aqXojhERvN9pj_DA7iiJMkSGejBoAyc=w555-h118" width="555" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Export Figures of Regions in Vietnam where Dream Operate in.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Ha Nam is where the HQ and most paid-up capital is)</div><br />Not exactly a very influential indicator but Dream has most of its factories in Ha Nam. However, Ha Nam houses other big companies (Wistron Corp, Honda and Seoul Semicon Vina) as well therefore while this data is nice to have but might not be easy to have any correlations. <p></p><p>Ha Nam Exports have increased since 2021 and in 2023 have hit record highs. 30% increase in exports value from 2H 2022 to 2H 2023.</p><p><u><b>Conclusion</b></u></p><p>Revenue from US is likely to be weak while revenue from Japan is likely to be stronger. However, the gain in revenue from Japan is unlikely to cover revenue from US.</p><p>As such, any profit improvements will come from margin expansion and i believe that should happen although the magnitude will depend.</p><p>With regards to demand from Shanghai Disneyland, that will be a factor in deciding profits as well. I believe 4Q might be a little weaker(5%-10% lower visitorship) than 3Q but should still remain at a good demand level. We might get some color when Disney releases its results.</p><p>Funko's revenue projection for 2024 in its earning release (usually in March) will also likely play a part in the analysis moving forward.</p><p>Currently, Dream is still hiring which is something positive as well.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBRnKX-S8tgViZ3Wj6Wp__VG8zAiLH4--q9BbBBGGoEzBAFMnSXG-8rg60zFaxx1wuYLe20Q-VlE3GvMNTyyjg4HkLwnPWSYMoqTqhG7yFUAbOy2y6U9q5aNASkL0KugNy8Ev9ThCc5IWHgr5EWdRAjhpx1e3zIAvqWVIZYQL_nD3wbcC5958fLfzWJfM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="660" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBRnKX-S8tgViZ3Wj6Wp__VG8zAiLH4--q9BbBBGGoEzBAFMnSXG-8rg60zFaxx1wuYLe20Q-VlE3GvMNTyyjg4HkLwnPWSYMoqTqhG7yFUAbOy2y6U9q5aNASkL0KugNy8Ev9ThCc5IWHgr5EWdRAjhpx1e3zIAvqWVIZYQL_nD3wbcC5958fLfzWJfM=w419-h371" width="419" /></a></div><br />This year would mark Dream's 40 Year Anniversary. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7Kq2nEAB1BzQpMvY4YLjVgR2V7PRBDFnannnncYJBUtP6y_p0kEy_JTksqVROvMsgCj1HU929bnR8exPvKFhFF0dm_oyAAjPHkWx22Kgj7Q3infwtoypnQAeMSnQ9I9zl2kTuNV6pEbwu0DB07hNEXx2-CHFzcN540s_5HEC4MCJ7U0-Dsul2LpHpBm4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="445" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7Kq2nEAB1BzQpMvY4YLjVgR2V7PRBDFnannnncYJBUtP6y_p0kEy_JTksqVROvMsgCj1HU929bnR8exPvKFhFF0dm_oyAAjPHkWx22Kgj7Q3infwtoypnQAeMSnQ9I9zl2kTuNV6pEbwu0DB07hNEXx2-CHFzcN540s_5HEC4MCJ7U0-Dsul2LpHpBm4=w333-h445" width="333" /></a></div><br />Will we see something special like a special dividend? Although we need to take into account that the dividends of 20 cents in 1H 2023 is already double of 1H 2022 and it was 'To reward shareholders of the Company for their long-term support'<br /><br /><br /><br /><u><b>K-Pop Pictures Spamming Time</b></u></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCt-g3hE_XF1jiGL0j6l5heOG7F47fJrQiUgq8CKgns6TGg4ovU7ZUmCcviDsSonSJZnTNdcqYyeBR5_Q-FLZ2Ugj_n-a2RhRHhoQJ49c4_8mVvyH_s8PiPG-oWcBDy9NSkRwUksRUEvATeTmkPsLc7uQ6Z1s9qwa1az-cYpfkOEwcLfS4Ho7jApN4EoY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="617" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCt-g3hE_XF1jiGL0j6l5heOG7F47fJrQiUgq8CKgns6TGg4ovU7ZUmCcviDsSonSJZnTNdcqYyeBR5_Q-FLZ2Ugj_n-a2RhRHhoQJ49c4_8mVvyH_s8PiPG-oWcBDy9NSkRwUksRUEvATeTmkPsLc7uQ6Z1s9qwa1az-cYpfkOEwcLfS4Ho7jApN4EoY=w346-h617" width="346" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_HtTPXKSCVrW1quamYBurzf8U2PaFl9YZeinagLFbkhLaCohwkcfqpoTjsCuVSP7Be5lIjzgyPgxjroCJ_o9vVAP_KbemTFwxkq2AlQEHh7HsbYT3KdOWZB1GtfaWiqBzKAgObo-3PQ_sqryXZ2tsbSI1jprMTwBACOSbGtkOwnPf3jfJItCER8N6Cck" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="609" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_HtTPXKSCVrW1quamYBurzf8U2PaFl9YZeinagLFbkhLaCohwkcfqpoTjsCuVSP7Be5lIjzgyPgxjroCJ_o9vVAP_KbemTFwxkq2AlQEHh7HsbYT3KdOWZB1GtfaWiqBzKAgObo-3PQ_sqryXZ2tsbSI1jprMTwBACOSbGtkOwnPf3jfJItCER8N6Cck=w345-h609" width="345" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirInX9VYgIRTWbOyLMM3z-_rDgVp1ywJqCDuxXUTy8om3kne79SkZCvC1bwedImWgmbE2nyDjocGo8sx4ncUAFHlTHTnsm0rUwU-5InQMKHAjYifkBpIAQv80UZc3LMV2NMICDBHpJ2I-66AWLk4OkdU4Cav1qBkpIGaUzxzhRB_dje_FsJz8Li6lnGww" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="618" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirInX9VYgIRTWbOyLMM3z-_rDgVp1ywJqCDuxXUTy8om3kne79SkZCvC1bwedImWgmbE2nyDjocGo8sx4ncUAFHlTHTnsm0rUwU-5InQMKHAjYifkBpIAQv80UZc3LMV2NMICDBHpJ2I-66AWLk4OkdU4Cav1qBkpIGaUzxzhRB_dje_FsJz8Li6lnGww=w345-h618" width="345" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5JyE_LxPv9Q4zzJOfaQaR9I6gsQJ2UMzMC43YoP3YcjYRRszH6vG9JQhgZhKBRATkuvg6g8LgjlDkX-72alcnUo-kVgi4qCdzm_VCYO6wm4GP_iY1KL5v7bmSF3xZZPFGuJX_9o_3D2tHrrRbBcMDQcFbZYUWpFiedwKd3v3YKxlwl7GdogILehvYTBc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="611" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5JyE_LxPv9Q4zzJOfaQaR9I6gsQJ2UMzMC43YoP3YcjYRRszH6vG9JQhgZhKBRATkuvg6g8LgjlDkX-72alcnUo-kVgi4qCdzm_VCYO6wm4GP_iY1KL5v7bmSF3xZZPFGuJX_9o_3D2tHrrRbBcMDQcFbZYUWpFiedwKd3v3YKxlwl7GdogILehvYTBc=w345-h611" width="345" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZFsMIKyKPk_jcD6N07xuorK4bQM0yDhAffUxT1L8LheY276Aud_9XbYqEAB3ivIRGqlYyQmTlWMIo0SI_XvPZGGZ8oedVXgAG7TiG6LMQzEZC9w-kZLuvxYuxWgBbd33gd33PFQbe2gjdo2YnpwiDy4fBrV7oNjDj1l1XSLfnLH905Rr59UzsakljJJU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZFsMIKyKPk_jcD6N07xuorK4bQM0yDhAffUxT1L8LheY276Aud_9XbYqEAB3ivIRGqlYyQmTlWMIo0SI_XvPZGGZ8oedVXgAG7TiG6LMQzEZC9w-kZLuvxYuxWgBbd33gd33PFQbe2gjdo2YnpwiDy4fBrV7oNjDj1l1XSLfnLH905Rr59UzsakljJJU=w345-h612" width="345" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8lePtYx_YC0KqE-o9mS3QY6lmuOlyz-J7I6Kj25iSZAEAoCPhgjWn9Z2mQQ3FIUnpWF0aOMmOvQkiD0E2x4FUpbptfJdADO8f_liYN6gQcP90DIdg9o-wnZi78KB9rVpW8K2-2dfZNrevTO4xUo0e0xu1MpHLKIeLaZ6o3xDiaQI-SFGlRPTNwu2zE_A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="611" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8lePtYx_YC0KqE-o9mS3QY6lmuOlyz-J7I6Kj25iSZAEAoCPhgjWn9Z2mQQ3FIUnpWF0aOMmOvQkiD0E2x4FUpbptfJdADO8f_liYN6gQcP90DIdg9o-wnZi78KB9rVpW8K2-2dfZNrevTO4xUo0e0xu1MpHLKIeLaZ6o3xDiaQI-SFGlRPTNwu2zE_A=w344-h611" width="344" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg23LIdDleP2ISwik-htJ7Ai8Jy2v6S6Y3CPyWNTagJHqkv9X8le0dcRgR6OD96DNPsZsMTmZVutaGRKbxeKMSqo7JfpCSa587bLAhEpqkQmZz2s9bnCmHXwtEhQ0CXw6VPygB2uyKzHparBqnqO_-nifD2hIaTfl45_H_wtgtB4wZpf0lpPXE2dImYZkg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="616" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg23LIdDleP2ISwik-htJ7Ai8Jy2v6S6Y3CPyWNTagJHqkv9X8le0dcRgR6OD96DNPsZsMTmZVutaGRKbxeKMSqo7JfpCSa587bLAhEpqkQmZz2s9bnCmHXwtEhQ0CXw6VPygB2uyKzHparBqnqO_-nifD2hIaTfl45_H_wtgtB4wZpf0lpPXE2dImYZkg=w346-h616" width="346" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUQG95Qdx7B-vq3EMnKF9vXsNUd7KywHrk6g6CGl9Q4bK5elGcL4v_c8SWfhd-Vjv8TE7HB7Wc4FY1QhYAO5C1t8azt--EpUYyFchmW71jZS6x_Gq09mXkg_cTopupoUIwNzeLVPzbsGqQuyedV9S8ZtWhbCeGT3SwaqaoyBIBm0V0as2Lj9dyqcKp7wc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2252" data-original-width="4000" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUQG95Qdx7B-vq3EMnKF9vXsNUd7KywHrk6g6CGl9Q4bK5elGcL4v_c8SWfhd-Vjv8TE7HB7Wc4FY1QhYAO5C1t8azt--EpUYyFchmW71jZS6x_Gq09mXkg_cTopupoUIwNzeLVPzbsGqQuyedV9S8ZtWhbCeGT3SwaqaoyBIBm0V0as2Lj9dyqcKp7wc=w583-h329" width="583" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div><br /></div><div><br /><p></p><p><u><b>Post 20 Jan Updates</b></u></p><p>Vietnam Industrial Production for Manufacturing of Games and Toys is off to a decent start. Coming in at 48% higher than Jan 2023 and 11% higher than Feb 2023.</p><p>However, the preliminary export figures for the 1st 2 weeks seem to indicate a very weak opening of the year which means there needs to be more monitoring of the statistics.</p><p>February Figures for Exports / IIP unlikely to be of much reference as there will be a 'Tet'. Similar to CNY Break. It is expected to last around 10-12 days. (from 7 to 19 Feb if i remember correctly)</p><p>China Disneyland Shanghai Tourism in 2023, has <a href="https://www.cnr.cn/shanghai/tt/20231220/t20231220_526528816.shtml">broken 13 million visitorship.</a> This is actually a record breaking year. At the end of the year, a new segment of the theme park called zootopia has opened as well.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8lOumuaMuKtnJfO99zWXsJaEDOy-8QXrdOCuSITd35GF9ZkQXlyU37-dfEBsrMlSzUN5W9Jex_3W9FGDAufSy_Hj_SRMUQkikgKeuuwNz59C6au_D0uwlAS7MovLGxjQ-TxxTOXIXWABgcBYyhTCJzwrncGZY0YbNU7yxWVf2byxmOKKKsQEb7iGp9Vk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8lOumuaMuKtnJfO99zWXsJaEDOy-8QXrdOCuSITd35GF9ZkQXlyU37-dfEBsrMlSzUN5W9Jex_3W9FGDAufSy_Hj_SRMUQkikgKeuuwNz59C6au_D0uwlAS7MovLGxjQ-TxxTOXIXWABgcBYyhTCJzwrncGZY0YbNU7yxWVf2byxmOKKKsQEb7iGp9Vk=w389-h259" width="389" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Zootopia Shanghai Disneyland Launch)</div><br /><p></p><p><b>With regards to the Japan Disney Side</b></p><p>Sorry, i just realized Oriental Land has released their results up to 31 December 2023 on 30 January 2024.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7AZY6HVjzHCaJJjHjwuhLfHGWCOPCG-YYp8doiFkC9wsY-WshZNAWO5Uxnn01IPn1K42epfpb3MeN8hznIV7QGPC0RaRMbRg_kMhxLbj6_AlRijW35EIwLFWhsdYz7tOlz3jNNJZHHokk40g9E1CKV6qT-pMrGuKLPAFQ_SAu3kmgbIVDcA4FNl2xQhE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="962" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7AZY6HVjzHCaJJjHjwuhLfHGWCOPCG-YYp8doiFkC9wsY-WshZNAWO5Uxnn01IPn1K42epfpb3MeN8hznIV7QGPC0RaRMbRg_kMhxLbj6_AlRijW35EIwLFWhsdYz7tOlz3jNNJZHHokk40g9E1CKV6qT-pMrGuKLPAFQ_SAu3kmgbIVDcA4FNl2xQhE=w497-h373" width="497" /></a></div><br />26.3 million visitors is the forecasted target from April 2023 to March 2024. According to Oriental Land, 12.50 million visited from April 2023 to September 2023.<p></p><p>My estimate says 7.53 million visited from Octoboer 2023 to December 2023.</p><p>Therefore, to hit the target, 6.27 million will be required. January Figures look to be around 2 million. It might make sense that the forecast is not revised.</p><p>On the Inventory end. Inventory has fallen from 16523 m as of Sept 2023 to 12893 m in Dec 2023. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhiqbRgZJO1bTzGjMFWsJyvtQq_qpG4cmpEXXbApSTJ-8ROotAUvWioPbE4SR3hnDo0C5sRZNPAFaBdUj785XqUdjEVXmqgC4jHErZZR2mEde-Ak5rGXGH_d_QzslpC6upNNqo1QUeepu2s323vkW50kgOVHOUUUaySSiWx15LDPBEobg4KAXWFonIYWsM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="510" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhiqbRgZJO1bTzGjMFWsJyvtQq_qpG4cmpEXXbApSTJ-8ROotAUvWioPbE4SR3hnDo0C5sRZNPAFaBdUj785XqUdjEVXmqgC4jHErZZR2mEde-Ak5rGXGH_d_QzslpC6upNNqo1QUeepu2s323vkW50kgOVHOUUUaySSiWx15LDPBEobg4KAXWFonIYWsM=w421-h273" width="421" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhV0S6YD3lJMMuilnBT_zUxgJLK7cQH49CxvTO5Hnh24j3wq_v-qfZzR6PLUAyDUWcDcPYxtT6BC2L1rZDL5ZBV98Hwp8_O-qwiwOEovN6wtmjZo_2G6XxXbaTiaawe2TYkZjre7TaWEAYxXgqwfqM6pgkRkuG3lgf3C7g5vWy8d040wfg1vYc4-3je0Jw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="363" data-original-width="502" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhV0S6YD3lJMMuilnBT_zUxgJLK7cQH49CxvTO5Hnh24j3wq_v-qfZzR6PLUAyDUWcDcPYxtT6BC2L1rZDL5ZBV98Hwp8_O-qwiwOEovN6wtmjZo_2G6XxXbaTiaawe2TYkZjre7TaWEAYxXgqwfqM6pgkRkuG3lgf3C7g5vWy8d040wfg1vYc4-3je0Jw=w397-h286" width="397" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(126427-77968 = 48459)</div><br /><b>While inventory has fallen, Merchandise Revenue has increased to 48459 million</b>. A <b>big increase</b> considering the previous quarters were 38334 million and 39364 million(23% increase).</div><div><br /></div><div>Considering that cost of inventory for Merchandise is 42.3% in FY 2023, we can probably infer that despite a fall in inventory, the revenue increase of 10000 million (which implies cost of sales around 4230 million) would mean that overall merchandise addition from Sept 2023 to Dec 2023 has remain stable despite the drop of inventory.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, after thinking it through, it might not be as valuable of information as Toys and Sundries only make up 48% of merchandise revenue in FY 2023 and detailed COGS is not revealed while detailed revenue breakdown is shown. </div><div><br /></div><div>Based on my breakdown 1H 2023 Japan Revenue should have been stronger than 2H 2022 but that did not happen.</div><div><br /></div><div>Therefore, <b>a strong revenue in merchandise would be more important</b> as it shows sustained demand and it might be too difficult to figure out if there has been 'more orders' as COGS is not revealed and we are also unsure which parts of the inventory has been reduced.</div><div><br /></div><div>Of course,<b> a rapid decrease in merchandise revenue and inventory would still be bad news. But fortunately, that is not the case for now.</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhKY_W-RaRnGdJ6nDsTyNB6FWyQQGNlyUYbiHBL2BXccoHTtVaDix5PA_zR-nQQ2eZ1PamqjBjDa5u1d_yPGOrA4saLJX8oYLJna5J3WQQi7GoUztMw4H0OZFzQeBU5GzyEAVpzjdsgnTDKUu6t7lvXU_6_inwx9ClcqyUn2Jd6mJp-KaJmFeqHyYk_0ek" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="224" data-original-width="559" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhKY_W-RaRnGdJ6nDsTyNB6FWyQQGNlyUYbiHBL2BXccoHTtVaDix5PA_zR-nQQ2eZ1PamqjBjDa5u1d_yPGOrA4saLJX8oYLJna5J3WQQi7GoUztMw4H0OZFzQeBU5GzyEAVpzjdsgnTDKUu6t7lvXU_6_inwx9ClcqyUn2Jd6mJp-KaJmFeqHyYk_0ek=w486-h194" width="486" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></b></div><div><p></p><p>With that i have come to the end of my analysis.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEif6FbWOn_yO1MF5aS6jjyrnA8jNFUhjeFOTUbcKKhF5Cp25hozM5KqXJQh5XkPMi64fjY1jnZqMzc7XnlauKICO_nf1dK_VpaLwUBVAg5j92leY7nQkR4lLuq05XqGK1lUYNbBMBY_jroiu2J5F9dw3zmuTDDheZYLWtOner4d_rar5GIlPjrH1GajtCw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="569" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEif6FbWOn_yO1MF5aS6jjyrnA8jNFUhjeFOTUbcKKhF5Cp25hozM5KqXJQh5XkPMi64fjY1jnZqMzc7XnlauKICO_nf1dK_VpaLwUBVAg5j92leY7nQkR4lLuq05XqGK1lUYNbBMBY_jroiu2J5F9dw3zmuTDDheZYLWtOner4d_rar5GIlPjrH1GajtCw=w320-h569" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-42864693889909864442024-01-31T03:39:00.000-08:002024-01-31T03:39:48.065-08:00(January 2024 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilJfRoyb4qNmTWg9m-0BXOQ0NouaUwj3j00-j35RL6-pjIDoNEEWOW-22ylO1M5XXJ0O8AbYvLfv-F97w022P-dJ33szgZGKWIRheFBgNLZXIIq_3enanasItZZhfzl4LvANcboULsWD0e_YenTUINnHykhizN-sgvgi4dAXXcWcHuKMmK_GAge4I3K7U/s485/avc.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="485" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilJfRoyb4qNmTWg9m-0BXOQ0NouaUwj3j00-j35RL6-pjIDoNEEWOW-22ylO1M5XXJ0O8AbYvLfv-F97w022P-dJ33szgZGKWIRheFBgNLZXIIq_3enanasItZZhfzl4LvANcboULsWD0e_YenTUINnHykhizN-sgvgi4dAXXcWcHuKMmK_GAge4I3K7U/w425-h335/avc.PNG" width="425" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>January 2024 R</b><b>eturns: -0.55%</b></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: start;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: start;"></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: -0.55%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 73.38%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">After some consideration, i have decided to make some changes to the portfolio. I have decided to welcome back <b>Straco</b> again while removing TC Auto and reducing China Sunsine.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3kXppzZ5tFPvlY-TNsakeV0Vo5kTeC6bpeJnRrG8DgKHtRznufxBHRuexdAmaue-wPbINu_8NbAqtaEXMb3zqncpWQ1hejG6zjGRsR_hM3ekuu_5utiqIKeHlwuPF200dTrSuK2S_nVxvOXDd_usLek9cONXLu1eYHHAa-lanzNAUGoqA4SMfXtYF8mc/s485/avc2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="485" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3kXppzZ5tFPvlY-TNsakeV0Vo5kTeC6bpeJnRrG8DgKHtRznufxBHRuexdAmaue-wPbINu_8NbAqtaEXMb3zqncpWQ1hejG6zjGRsR_hM3ekuu_5utiqIKeHlwuPF200dTrSuK2S_nVxvOXDd_usLek9cONXLu1eYHHAa-lanzNAUGoqA4SMfXtYF8mc/w419-h331/avc2.PNG" width="419" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(How the portfolio would look like after the change)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">I listened to the <a href="https://www.moneyfm893.sg/guest/amos-ng-sean-wu-straco-corporation/">Money FM podcast on Straco</a> and am positive on what i hear with regards to the prospects. Especially the portion on how the general statistics have positive spill over effect in China , positive targets set and 'not yet fully recovered' especially when 3Q 2023 was already a very good result, probably the best quarterly result since covid and could be better than pre covid as well.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-3582470321643496012023-12-30T06:15:00.000-08:002023-12-30T06:15:27.514-08:002023 Year End Review Part 2<p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzI8rQNhBg2sZ7PaMylwO-9ggcR6GCZEEoM6BDM92s807EUsQiPkxLSw3ssxQ1CpxPy5vue9BKivfp_fKiFjzqWFhoxjoR216zNW-B7s3h0PyETC6cUclQfld-Z6nS705w9u6i4zNfW_b3xdMefl69bnazBtUgGwtm6j1czgQUjpbFA9Slc-u5Mk-yzDU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="333" height="463" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzI8rQNhBg2sZ7PaMylwO-9ggcR6GCZEEoM6BDM92s807EUsQiPkxLSw3ssxQ1CpxPy5vue9BKivfp_fKiFjzqWFhoxjoR216zNW-B7s3h0PyETC6cUclQfld-Z6nS705w9u6i4zNfW_b3xdMefl69bnazBtUgGwtm6j1czgQUjpbFA9Slc-u5Mk-yzDU=w317-h463" width="317" /></a></div><br /><b>2023 Returns: 28.66%</b> (After a miracle run in 2022, 2023 is also another miracle run )<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhn4pE3ImMLEIxOORJa_ZrcahG4M-6Jmu7LdmV9btHuZmft4yjIr3GHlN81-Wy6Hlr6xCC2JIBTIijommzGam-8GAQ8H7PtxhjKzabWcHyczNJ82OJqemqUIQSExAoKsSvGnWwj90mhS-tM7DB1VY0ayCyhyfDEZsCgjburBOw4M40bh25PEhQvXntogNY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="173" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhn4pE3ImMLEIxOORJa_ZrcahG4M-6Jmu7LdmV9btHuZmft4yjIr3GHlN81-Wy6Hlr6xCC2JIBTIijommzGam-8GAQ8H7PtxhjKzabWcHyczNJ82OJqemqUIQSExAoKsSvGnWwj90mhS-tM7DB1VY0ayCyhyfDEZsCgjburBOw4M40bh25PEhQvXntogNY=w164-h424" width="164" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">For Folks Interested in XIRR</div><br /><p></p><p><b><u>Year End Thoughts</u></b></p><p>When i look at my results in 2023, it is definitely good. However if i were to describe it like a football match, it would be like scoring 7 goals in the 1st half and letting in 2 goals in the 2nd half to finish the match with a 7-2 victory.</p><p>While it definitely is a win and a big one, i would have to develop more tactics for upcoming matches as it is not every match where scoring 7 goals is possible.</p><p>While things have been smooth running for a few years, there is always a need to be conscious of what i can do and what can go wrong as well as knowing that what you might not know that might go wrong. Things can always go wrong at any point of time and that is just the harsh fact of life.</p><p>Motivation wise, i think compared to 2022, it is around the same or even lower this year as i have not made much changes or perhaps try to deep dive much lesser. Which is why i am actually shocked by the 2023 returns. Perhaps the gods have decided to give their blessings for 2023.</p><p>Hopefully my motivation picks up in 2024.</p><p><u><b>Portfolio Related</b></u></p><p>Facing a big allocation decision again for the 2nd year running, it was about allocating the funds from AAG Energy, the top holding of 2022 that would be key.</p><p>In End 2022, the larger positions (6% and above were)</p><p>AAG Energy (Delisted, Premium of <10%)</p><p>HG Metal (Sold at a Loss)</p><p>Medialink Group (Sold at a Gain)</p><p>Mainland Headwear (Still Holding a Small Position. 2023 Share Price Returns: -6.84%</p><p>-Reduced after a muted / negative guidance was given for 2022 2H. With New Era IPO rumored to be in 2024, perhaps we would be able to better observe the company and re-enter again.</p><p><b><u>In End 2023, the larger positions (6% and above are)</u></b></p><p>1. Dream International Ltd</p><p><span>-I plan to come out a post hopefully in January with regards to this. But in the meanwhile commentary, the strength of Theme Park in Japan continues to hold. </span></p><p><span>Officially, Japan Tourism Numbers have surpassed pre-covid in October 2023. That is good tailwind news.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhsIMnqYlrURrG6HEIm9B04-RsBVnzqPkhBV8KtkX47txICkYTefkL3OZKPu7rfQC7Bl88V-G53EkKZS7EhlVHSAzZ1Q-LJAW6hSSAhQrH5ZYqMEvmLujRpfqZIxgRp5_3SGU2PiRxLBjbArnuQqDRXuJNgiaAkY8v1WI5pT2IenKKhrxRP5Oa-9qywUSc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="416" height="489" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhsIMnqYlrURrG6HEIm9B04-RsBVnzqPkhBV8KtkX47txICkYTefkL3OZKPu7rfQC7Bl88V-G53EkKZS7EhlVHSAzZ1Q-LJAW6hSSAhQrH5ZYqMEvmLujRpfqZIxgRp5_3SGU2PiRxLBjbArnuQqDRXuJNgiaAkY8v1WI5pT2IenKKhrxRP5Oa-9qywUSc=w389-h489" width="389" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">2.516 million visits in Oct 2023 compared to 2.496 million in Oct 2019 Pre Covid.</div><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj76XmfL-BJdpFTE2Vw7OvS3FjuizdftsJ6bTLVfszLqdQAqGbk9kiYiuJywDdfv26XYh2PcmseEFGbLDYV_1jrbdGlMDEbbs5VfijlHK-t_zgaG3sg4bZHljhbGMLWw4P7D7R0Pvyu3VMjSUAhQ9dElhVL1GJ9UwvHooP7Wgd-e5rtz_It1HJh_MA4wZM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="696" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj76XmfL-BJdpFTE2Vw7OvS3FjuizdftsJ6bTLVfszLqdQAqGbk9kiYiuJywDdfv26XYh2PcmseEFGbLDYV_1jrbdGlMDEbbs5VfijlHK-t_zgaG3sg4bZHljhbGMLWw4P7D7R0Pvyu3VMjSUAhQ9dElhVL1GJ9UwvHooP7Wgd-e5rtz_It1HJh_MA4wZM=w392-h696" width="392" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(A Plush Found in DisneySea Merchandise Store, Made in Vietnam)</div><br /><p></p><p><span>2. Huationg Global</span></p><p><span>-1H 2023 is actually one of the lowest revenue(41.6 million) i have seen for its Civil Engineering Segment Since 2020.</span></p><p><span>-As such, will see if there is a rebound in revenue in 2H as order book of $484.4 million to be completed within the next 4 years would mean roughly 60 million per half year.</span></p><p>-Dormitory Operation should maintain, or any improvements would be positive. The possible negative factor would be higher inter-segment revenue affecting segment profit. With regards to rental rates, they have still maintained <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/construction-foreign-workers-dormitories-rental-soar-alternative-housing-ctq-3788066">a high level</a>.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjVi0HPVJdnyXlTPQupLeMlp8Ipje0cBDOzwF3oFUqAY2kf3EFXlrvvX3RPfENaeALmkC1iM1N1yywnEsRsAWr8nD4FLEYN4-B457BK3CSCZ3aZYU7eWPia4TsQkSrixq3TU33POo1LQV_GQkG76Z09GtDj2mmGwc49zl7pGWBuRtfOIHvlTxPNbvB30w8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1052" height="379" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjVi0HPVJdnyXlTPQupLeMlp8Ipje0cBDOzwF3oFUqAY2kf3EFXlrvvX3RPfENaeALmkC1iM1N1yywnEsRsAWr8nD4FLEYN4-B457BK3CSCZ3aZYU7eWPia4TsQkSrixq3TU33POo1LQV_GQkG76Z09GtDj2mmGwc49zl7pGWBuRtfOIHvlTxPNbvB30w8=w510-h379" width="510" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Dormitory Ads on Commercial Guru)</div><br />3. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong<p></p><p>-I wrote a <a href="https://zzxbzzinvesting.blogspot.com/2023/12/my-last-new-stock-purchase-of-2023.html">post on it recently</a>. Therefore, i will want to see the results to see if they can surprise by selling more exports.</p><p>-In terms of stability, it definitely has improved its financials in 2023 with improved profitability and improved rental in its investment property.</p><p>With that the 2023 Year End Review has come to an end.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixyXPxXpTxEyFVChBMbPsnebeOBTFCL-89zfaKK4vx7HKdg33UqcBGND-tdxmh7LIZGUb3nNsN2ABq4wFtFEds43i6m4MZtk0Bwm1eZHsmKEd2vL1NmD4QJJ_b-Q3ge8ccB0Ycyl6myNKs_VK2hfcLF44jwOW1rNsVpQdlaVJ63eMKEOEwtVQ-GNEmsuQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixyXPxXpTxEyFVChBMbPsnebeOBTFCL-89zfaKK4vx7HKdg33UqcBGND-tdxmh7LIZGUb3nNsN2ABq4wFtFEds43i6m4MZtk0Bwm1eZHsmKEd2vL1NmD4QJJ_b-Q3ge8ccB0Ycyl6myNKs_VK2hfcLF44jwOW1rNsVpQdlaVJ63eMKEOEwtVQ-GNEmsuQ=w244-h434" width="244" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">(Sending Hearts and Wishing Everyone a Happy New Year)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCnGjk5bZhj-WhBJiJnDVMefWWazY8OkUHxzwJSjdQF78Jud4m7eZaHWfrMIyP_KGx1CYVP-4h7wpbGcgJhtWgKIH9jZab12zBIsLG3tX5UYB0jb48oHt-x4oje-T6fY446tWFDZ3sLvzDfRaTeq_LAE660FEA-wa4I41Qd-H6oaCoZ3O87lJyyWAERuM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCnGjk5bZhj-WhBJiJnDVMefWWazY8OkUHxzwJSjdQF78Jud4m7eZaHWfrMIyP_KGx1CYVP-4h7wpbGcgJhtWgKIH9jZab12zBIsLG3tX5UYB0jb48oHt-x4oje-T6fY446tWFDZ3sLvzDfRaTeq_LAE660FEA-wa4I41Qd-H6oaCoZ3O87lJyyWAERuM=w267-h474" width="267" /></a></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi40rJBmqMNO15iNpG-5z72MpVjHYAAVf5X7Xs3GWKFNvMk2wvwzODdr6xUN9ioh0oWr6z1hlGqRNDf-nPFcCsEO84qNfZ-8fkZnzudEYznTLvr6N9mOwO1Af0fiFbhAlpzbdxYsCiSsLr2cXr2QDLgqFKdxWTAHTfc1ZtOzjlYpGDPfJFeXNh4Kht9a9c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="502" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi40rJBmqMNO15iNpG-5z72MpVjHYAAVf5X7Xs3GWKFNvMk2wvwzODdr6xUN9ioh0oWr6z1hlGqRNDf-nPFcCsEO84qNfZ-8fkZnzudEYznTLvr6N9mOwO1Af0fiFbhAlpzbdxYsCiSsLr2cXr2QDLgqFKdxWTAHTfc1ZtOzjlYpGDPfJFeXNh4Kht9a9c=w283-h502" width="283" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi40rJBmqMNO15iNpG-5z72MpVjHYAAVf5X7Xs3GWKFNvMk2wvwzODdr6xUN9ioh0oWr6z1hlGqRNDf-nPFcCsEO84qNfZ-8fkZnzudEYznTLvr6N9mOwO1Af0fiFbhAlpzbdxYsCiSsLr2cXr2QDLgqFKdxWTAHTfc1ZtOzjlYpGDPfJFeXNh4Kht9a9c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIAGEW1_uQH3UvXBdwlnrddcqGU7-YOo-LB_5imdJ66fKr4qAOZiwQGGk7bUhf84qu5c3TG9WIkqqk8FasqE5ueYklf6VD7Qxb7FWp3EbX-hlTFii67noXzqzTwwhTF5bJQuich82SfYHvh6bawTzu5dgziFW3Toy-YVQ1ip2GIVy0ND0JMhB_j2CRNdY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="508" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIAGEW1_uQH3UvXBdwlnrddcqGU7-YOo-LB_5imdJ66fKr4qAOZiwQGGk7bUhf84qu5c3TG9WIkqqk8FasqE5ueYklf6VD7Qxb7FWp3EbX-hlTFii67noXzqzTwwhTF5bJQuich82SfYHvh6bawTzu5dgziFW3Toy-YVQ1ip2GIVy0ND0JMhB_j2CRNdY=w286-h508" width="286" /></a></div><br /></div></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><span><br /></span></p><p><span> </span></p><p><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-44412245789575993242023-12-29T03:02:00.000-08:002023-12-29T03:02:34.869-08:00(December 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGh8ptr7fMuAcFqWfgnsJsOamJjPPtCGbsj3JHTDeL1GnZCP1T_xkqfS117fGvAa80qSPaoRwD3Tn3hyphenhyphenH_2KVEdw37VOtHFAURBjuccrYhYtMxAK6WgVjxki15Yrb_mh4WlNrDNDCjUmHjKs5HSnujSj5xMYF6EnNGmAcr9TaZPJKEuoClRIx46z8JpMc/s472/abcda.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="472" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGh8ptr7fMuAcFqWfgnsJsOamJjPPtCGbsj3JHTDeL1GnZCP1T_xkqfS117fGvAa80qSPaoRwD3Tn3hyphenhyphenH_2KVEdw37VOtHFAURBjuccrYhYtMxAK6WgVjxki15Yrb_mh4WlNrDNDCjUmHjKs5HSnujSj5xMYF6EnNGmAcr9TaZPJKEuoClRIx46z8JpMc/w473-h385/abcda.PNG" width="473" /></a></div></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>December 2023 R</b><b>eturns: 0.54%</b></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 22.58%</b></div><p style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 74.34%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">The year wraps up with a 22.58% on the imaginary portfolio of SG Stocks.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Since it begin in September 2020, the returns for each year are as follows.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333;">2020: </span><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>6.07%</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333;">2021: </span><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>54.42%</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333;">2022: </span><span style="color: red;"><b>-16.56%</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333;">2023: </span><b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">22.58%</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">The STI is in a range of -5% to 5% therefore to have a 22% performance is great for the portfolio.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I started the year with 10 positions and ended the year with 8 positions. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">With which, UMS, TC Auto, Haw Par, Powermatic , Centurion, China Sunsine survived the full year.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">A stock that caught my eye and perhaps i would want to dive deeper would be.......Straco.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">The quarterly results might have been its best ever and even beat pre-covid results. As we know, Shanghai Aquarium has always been the main income driver therefore we might see some positive upside in Q4 2023. I might need to do some research and decide by End January if we can add this guy back in again after a relatively muted addition back in Dec 31 to Mar 22.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-75063425398940278022023-12-24T10:50:00.000-08:002023-12-24T10:50:56.355-08:002023 Year End Review (Part 1)<p>Part 1 will be relooking some of the transactions done this year as well some talking cock and spamming K-Pop photos. As there are still a few days left to the end of the year, it is still early days to be talking about returns.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8Fd7wnaCunjJnzdcI00dWbyiOEM5D5b01L7D_2OdLM0GZJfln_VamtrpXENHEIf48uXAGW-1qRRzY8x2731Jnb9QQm0BlI1JAzwkou7P7oxC4V9j9r2u4Jsj2Fpxtd-087WC6WDye-PruDAtNEtPfnAfBoYROW8Gwp2akbRPSU7hMQZNYrgZCY-tmNwY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="534" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8Fd7wnaCunjJnzdcI00dWbyiOEM5D5b01L7D_2OdLM0GZJfln_VamtrpXENHEIf48uXAGW-1qRRzY8x2731Jnb9QQm0BlI1JAzwkou7P7oxC4V9j9r2u4Jsj2Fpxtd-087WC6WDye-PruDAtNEtPfnAfBoYROW8Gwp2akbRPSU7hMQZNYrgZCY-tmNwY=w301-h534" width="301" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(One of the places i have been to this year)</div><br /><p></p><p>After all anyone with Tencent / Netease or china game stocks will know that doing the review on 21 December vs 22 December will have made a sizable difference on returns.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiBiy9kQSlw61leFN3LyS6fPGkLu4WlDX997QrqSaFO9ySIbVwdIsToPpX6iMIyn8C4mztQtWsaYMwXOXSpHNH8If_lIUGFFu3M6WLBwMBMQRie_IeaSOimZJW6XxgjuTWnWlrakCm8Ktvdw0PMN9rAkzJVlnh8_c4j1g5IK-DXRsFAmeEAcXpwxDjd3TM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="849" height="451" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiBiy9kQSlw61leFN3LyS6fPGkLu4WlDX997QrqSaFO9ySIbVwdIsToPpX6iMIyn8C4mztQtWsaYMwXOXSpHNH8If_lIUGFFu3M6WLBwMBMQRie_IeaSOimZJW6XxgjuTWnWlrakCm8Ktvdw0PMN9rAkzJVlnh8_c4j1g5IK-DXRsFAmeEAcXpwxDjd3TM=w321-h451" width="321" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj-YF87rkC6JZEdQmlglilj8eZPpuNdJUEeOzx1WRSr3WyC-mvVPIY9loOeRyc3K2SI5kVvfPHoOqaHIGm_AdRLDjZi0T-0cF9pI0MG7M9gEKdS20_L9yBVeD4c7kCB6HIG6X4qF0UKhq1GKnAm4mdoMy7wkKMR2w2c7n9J7BSCSHMhd9DxrCR2BycRJis" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj-YF87rkC6JZEdQmlglilj8eZPpuNdJUEeOzx1WRSr3WyC-mvVPIY9loOeRyc3K2SI5kVvfPHoOqaHIGm_AdRLDjZi0T-0cF9pI0MG7M9gEKdS20_L9yBVeD4c7kCB6HIG6X4qF0UKhq1GKnAm4mdoMy7wkKMR2w2c7n9J7BSCSHMhd9DxrCR2BycRJis=w319-h319" width="319" /></a></div><br /></div><p></p><p>The year started positively as the first slam dunk movie made a good impact in Hong Kong and Taiwan, which subsequently led to a rise in Medialink Group (Hkex:2230) Share Price and i was able to sell it at a decent profit. Medialink Group was the distributor for First Slam Dunk in Hong Kong and Taiwan.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJDb5EyPu67xvg7rJhP9Npd_ni_c3tzhsDCk4B1NDRqPs8gYN4Pp2inV5OjHRlszeELQHAZZdamrngGB0W4qtKM4ThX5HJ-oKbmCY0V28fypRv7TbxzFmfwaiC7RE26iva9Qe7ZxiypTAtmp7j3zfnGs4-PB_eR54ma43RXYa03wJk5ITeYlbJbt3D2Ck" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="572" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJDb5EyPu67xvg7rJhP9Npd_ni_c3tzhsDCk4B1NDRqPs8gYN4Pp2inV5OjHRlszeELQHAZZdamrngGB0W4qtKM4ThX5HJ-oKbmCY0V28fypRv7TbxzFmfwaiC7RE26iva9Qe7ZxiypTAtmp7j3zfnGs4-PB_eR54ma43RXYa03wJk5ITeYlbJbt3D2Ck=w481-h316" width="481" /></a></div><br />Following which, HG Metal reported poor results in February 2023 and i have sold them at 0.355. Although the share price did went higher than 0.355 on the back of some share sale news, last i checked, it is at 0.28 now and the 1H 2023 Results was bad as the company was loss making on the back of poor revenue<div><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYNgurxY-t_wL75ondo-Sui5vaqoJYcFVm6WPhujJFys2rs55Tp2SRCenIpkJiY31IEaLh2HztDyCgxA_VhGxmaxu5cg20JtYSwAGLwbEVkV_xQcfIEI1AzNp268jfeKzUuFRkJD87lP-nR9FZEa3Ny3OrGm5DWKiBjREaQ6TImSE00RuifJzUqEqxvEI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="589" data-original-width="642" height="465" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYNgurxY-t_wL75ondo-Sui5vaqoJYcFVm6WPhujJFys2rs55Tp2SRCenIpkJiY31IEaLh2HztDyCgxA_VhGxmaxu5cg20JtYSwAGLwbEVkV_xQcfIEI1AzNp268jfeKzUuFRkJD87lP-nR9FZEa3Ny3OrGm5DWKiBjREaQ6TImSE00RuifJzUqEqxvEI=w507-h465" width="507" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0ZmhNO4kSX45cPwErcXpp15aW8YrKur4IIGlUFvJXunITU67fgg6mdVopVPQqGaooXnXtD39uPcoCbhZ5rdWPDOjCot_SzK3yCxP60wZudgvgKGbiuS1Mmou0vxRJlxSM9NizfEvaFKQFcKhRZ7hhBU63TD_BukM05gB-cCUkJ1tBhtUIu1J5pHCzSMI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="188" data-original-width="533" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0ZmhNO4kSX45cPwErcXpp15aW8YrKur4IIGlUFvJXunITU67fgg6mdVopVPQqGaooXnXtD39uPcoCbhZ5rdWPDOjCot_SzK3yCxP60wZudgvgKGbiuS1Mmou0vxRJlxSM9NizfEvaFKQFcKhRZ7hhBU63TD_BukM05gB-cCUkJ1tBhtUIu1J5pHCzSMI=w507-h179" width="507" /></a></div></div></div><br /><p></p><p>Meanwhile, in the subsequent months, some results trading went well while some went south. </p><p><u>Trades that went south/ sold at a lower price</u></p><p>Zengames (Hkex:2660). Sold at 2.69 in Feb. It was 4.51 as of 22 December 2023 despite the crackdown that happened to game industry.</p><p>Sutl Enterprise. Sold at 0.545 in March 2023 and 0.55 in April 2023 and the current price is 0.67</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjXh38yl13bHB_s3AsS8OKj-NeKCX_JR3qCiq9NWLkGgTX9gWm-szewIzed1CLzHClKdmOqWCjLSr6NKnMlQ0eINBV-HJSfWWsUD0V8V_-Sp6yYWQIKWjdfTs68FW5w6e4ltv2-JWMGbNeMUYBXiW3LCdBV8rIzm7OdUddJd9JvGV8hIGtF-00Px8JZbug" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="189" data-original-width="680" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjXh38yl13bHB_s3AsS8OKj-NeKCX_JR3qCiq9NWLkGgTX9gWm-szewIzed1CLzHClKdmOqWCjLSr6NKnMlQ0eINBV-HJSfWWsUD0V8V_-Sp6yYWQIKWjdfTs68FW5w6e4ltv2-JWMGbNeMUYBXiW3LCdBV8rIzm7OdUddJd9JvGV8hIGtF-00Px8JZbug=w537-h149" width="537" /></a></div><p></p><p>Baguio Green. Sold at 0.59 and 0.60 in August. Current Price is 0.73</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLydD0C8KcHkl0UprwnOMsSUsgYNExv5k2cM_EAxwEKKZK8eWi8ewwQhhWZCYBBOJETBLaxcLAdSuSYmvRvOMOSki2HFsWKMLnXSVB_RdOD3Az5u6gNn2BmsxH_ff338TgIoJzXW8muZUzINMEwP4QJitnYiTSrMsraJp0dJKD8gSfWIxQKderLwC92q0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="584" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLydD0C8KcHkl0UprwnOMsSUsgYNExv5k2cM_EAxwEKKZK8eWi8ewwQhhWZCYBBOJETBLaxcLAdSuSYmvRvOMOSki2HFsWKMLnXSVB_RdOD3Az5u6gNn2BmsxH_ff338TgIoJzXW8muZUzINMEwP4QJitnYiTSrMsraJp0dJKD8gSfWIxQKderLwC92q0=w489-h188" width="489" /></a></div><p></p><p>AV Concept. Sold at 0.3. Current price is 0.36</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihcDWRwxaymy4PtbmKtK6LUYPmayqwSZ8_Kbd_o0MOpxkTS4BmmX0AwAg-4WYX63clj8Qa3kNm-XjuSKFKsItA_2UWDznibxPV0cwvYZFUIkN5TZLdGU4jFfJSgs5fq9f9Hq87QqXlnwNwjWkNg_Yh_kuFX-ny_BjqM3_hxdzl03Po1vtDt6EusFMkBpE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="152" data-original-width="597" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihcDWRwxaymy4PtbmKtK6LUYPmayqwSZ8_Kbd_o0MOpxkTS4BmmX0AwAg-4WYX63clj8Qa3kNm-XjuSKFKsItA_2UWDznibxPV0cwvYZFUIkN5TZLdGU4jFfJSgs5fq9f9Hq87QqXlnwNwjWkNg_Yh_kuFX-ny_BjqM3_hxdzl03Po1vtDt6EusFMkBpE=w498-h126" width="498" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>Among the 4, i am <b>most positive on Sutl Enterprise.</b></p><p><u>Trades that went well </u></p><p>AAG Energy. I guess it went well since profit was made. But the lowball offer went through. As such the returns made from YTD was around 10%</p><p>Ossia Intl - I shared my view in a <a href="https://zzxbzzinvesting.blogspot.com/2023/04/deep-dive-analysis-on-sg-micro-cap.html">previous post</a> in April 2023. After the post, i was still adding it . My buy price ranged from 0.114 to 0.133. It hit a price of 0.16 to 0.175 in May which i took the opportunity to sell all of it. Fate and Luck seems to have decided that it would be a profit after all.</p><p>Build King- Bought in when i saw Wai Kee mentioning in its profit alert that Build King did well. And as expected it did well and i was able to make 10% on it.</p><p><u>Verdict is not out</u></p><p>This applies to the stocks in my portfolio as i am still holding them and anything could happen. Although some stocks had a good run in share price (e.g Huationg), i am still holding them as i believe that they can do better but as always anything could happen so we will see.</p><p>Trends that caught my eye/ i observed this year (might be late in catching them)</p><p>1) Japan. </p><p>Japan Stocks have rallied greatly this year. Oriental Land (Operates Disneyland and Disneysea) is up 40% this year. Itochu Corp (A conglomerate pick by Buffett is up 42%). Toyota is up 39% this year. Nissin is up 39% this year. </p><p>However, coming with it has is the depreciation of yen. It was 97 at the start of the year and we are finishing the year at around 107. This has in turn led to high tourist numbers in Japan. October 2023 figures have already exceeded pre-covid 2019 numbers.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjLdQEbUnQVTbRJxWUPoc7vLlrHTsGpDaFUQkBqMbl0f37dwNPBh3fsvOPiydMW77k2cNwYELdxGn4pzpqrcUCRxgjsrXGCQYe7BWhWy0D5Zaw0IbLdL_zx7xNTMQ_NbnvOXLTU0IgFwLLhnBlWMxipSJZ-VQ3A6plcfN99NlW_zj547OvZiBDjB2gM7Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="864" height="463" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjLdQEbUnQVTbRJxWUPoc7vLlrHTsGpDaFUQkBqMbl0f37dwNPBh3fsvOPiydMW77k2cNwYELdxGn4pzpqrcUCRxgjsrXGCQYe7BWhWy0D5Zaw0IbLdL_zx7xNTMQ_NbnvOXLTU0IgFwLLhnBlWMxipSJZ-VQ3A6plcfN99NlW_zj547OvZiBDjB2gM7Q=w560-h463" width="560" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(2516500 Visitors in Oct 2023 broke the 2019 Number of 2496568)</div><br />2) Slowdown in Semiconductor in play<p></p><p>As seen from TSMC Revenue, we can see a slowdown in progress. While it varies differently across different companies, the general trend is in play and as such it is rather likely that the SG Semiconductors (e.g UMS, Micro Mechanics, Frencken will have a revenue fall)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxmfMwjDeClon3OwA1nN90vpS2OqpQ7ZJYeuwj9VAeOZYPnCiQbiIkQ7zwZ4blzddszUHRO42qkfhFWfSAGBGzMksRKIUq1l0fuUaVQwpFh7SSnb5Mvgcd9IlFEoPXxn_RKtJjpPwrbkvpPJ2Ikd0Mxme9C9VFNECpXeFdDL2ILrh5X_qZQGCtYKJ26S4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="914" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxmfMwjDeClon3OwA1nN90vpS2OqpQ7ZJYeuwj9VAeOZYPnCiQbiIkQ7zwZ4blzddszUHRO42qkfhFWfSAGBGzMksRKIUq1l0fuUaVQwpFh7SSnb5Mvgcd9IlFEoPXxn_RKtJjpPwrbkvpPJ2Ikd0Mxme9C9VFNECpXeFdDL2ILrh5X_qZQGCtYKJ26S4=w559-h301" width="559" /></a></div><div><br /></div>3) Container Prices reverting to normal</div><div><br /></div><div>After a super normal profits during Covid, Container Shipping companies are starting to see large dip in revenue as the price of such shipping start dropping. Although the recent red sea migh have some short term price fluctuations, the general trend since the start of the year has been a large decrease in price.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg3Lt15uBZeoRiimLV8sknfIA_lXN-tg4uJhLz4MCzA-Si-1rin1qhxwlJ62nBcKgwIa7RTBMc3uROiD9uM1C8WLv4NefYa0Y7OfxAieBBxEQIt3JIiSNDkCaW0NS4v_r0k2w4Z-QF5-oFm5RLe4IunzrLMnCdzinF4wFgOmgfcEDDlIV3MRDIAKPGeCQE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="967" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg3Lt15uBZeoRiimLV8sknfIA_lXN-tg4uJhLz4MCzA-Si-1rin1qhxwlJ62nBcKgwIa7RTBMc3uROiD9uM1C8WLv4NefYa0Y7OfxAieBBxEQIt3JIiSNDkCaW0NS4v_r0k2w4Z-QF5-oFm5RLe4IunzrLMnCdzinF4wFgOmgfcEDDlIV3MRDIAKPGeCQE=w554-h282" width="554" /></a></div><div><br /></div>4) Inventory Overload in US<br /><br />This is actually a worry for the factories that produce and export towards US. For example garment export to US has fallen as destocking continues.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLO2QnrJZBgAmR8pz_RceeBA3F8VvTkD4Gp6w0TblV4uy6M6sTlYSZ8KBXzzUhQl3O6k0VQui3tu65dyHHGaCFXt6iXjtiJFs8K9_pHEDw4nTwgsyk5A9MsgewBJ-D_Peksl1XS4c32q8AK_iMLkkvf56ggcS7R5o-vYbn8O_hXPw7GsuspWOobWoKAMY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="650" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLO2QnrJZBgAmR8pz_RceeBA3F8VvTkD4Gp6w0TblV4uy6M6sTlYSZ8KBXzzUhQl3O6k0VQui3tu65dyHHGaCFXt6iXjtiJFs8K9_pHEDw4nTwgsyk5A9MsgewBJ-D_Peksl1XS4c32q8AK_iMLkkvf56ggcS7R5o-vYbn8O_hXPw7GsuspWOobWoKAMY=w498-h304" width="498" /></a></div><br />In fact, when i was researching on Cap Export from Bangladesh to US, the data does not bode well either.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNM_dIA9TDzRMmaMgRJ1vP6KUoEKa16d4t_yTJHAIr0uKtR51x-tCnan1XoPKqCci-Ojg8LRzpsK_Jv0LmFWYnF4gInTqW2k-HjNdQa6R8S0qutrnXLvy4eymeCE3R0RZ2dKKfy7Fkdq5L6YKnFGMfW2oU6SzAK41jXM5OwDy-hrtFltMxMzqhlT-xCn8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="243" data-original-width="186" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNM_dIA9TDzRMmaMgRJ1vP6KUoEKa16d4t_yTJHAIr0uKtR51x-tCnan1XoPKqCci-Ojg8LRzpsK_Jv0LmFWYnF4gInTqW2k-HjNdQa6R8S0qutrnXLvy4eymeCE3R0RZ2dKKfy7Fkdq5L6YKnFGMfW2oU6SzAK41jXM5OwDy-hrtFltMxMzqhlT-xCn8" width="184" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>I took a look at the garment export figures as well....</div>Garment Export from July to November in 2023 was around 3.2 billion USD.</div><div>Garment Export from July to November in 2022 was around 3.4 billion USD.</div><div><br /></div><div>While not a sharp % decrease, it still represents negative growth</div><div><br /></div><div>5) Dry Bulk Continue to be in Shambles</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1ILIsC2yLDm26j0gvDWQ1uxmXT1HXPNMVZqAs6jinOwFUxOJNEuyRh8B_2nXMzCxDqndRdkI-dEnXHuYjUvngFpuB7QgDHAEuS-sM-tn_Paf2OFcMXtEQujaTP5KopShcTh55KJHm9m6hrUmXxabSf2D40VWY6U6DSkbjgNUpfmtYeiHLjRv1SxLFOpU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="863" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1ILIsC2yLDm26j0gvDWQ1uxmXT1HXPNMVZqAs6jinOwFUxOJNEuyRh8B_2nXMzCxDqndRdkI-dEnXHuYjUvngFpuB7QgDHAEuS-sM-tn_Paf2OFcMXtEQujaTP5KopShcTh55KJHm9m6hrUmXxabSf2D40VWY6U6DSkbjgNUpfmtYeiHLjRv1SxLFOpU=w527-h241" width="527" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Looking at the chart, it seems like this year the market looks like 2021 levels. The current levels are far from 2022 or late 2021 levels. Which means that profitability will be poor. It definitely is not an industry that i would be interested to be vested in at the moment.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><u>Short Thoughts on the year</u></p><p>Overall, when i look at the things i have done in 2023......it looks like i have done much lesser research this year. Which is a product of lack of motivation / some depression/ some willingness to spend more time on K-pop and travelling / work being somewhat busy which is unexpected.</p><p>Also, as the portfolio was in gain at August and in decent position, flashback of how i threw away double digit gains in 2018 to end the year in a loss lingered in my mind and i got more cautious in the 2nd half of the year, which explained for the lesser transactions in 2H (36) compare to 1H(58).</p><p>Instead, I tried to find out if i can find more different data for different sectors that i am holding and assess if they are useful to the companies i hold or i might want to hold. </p><p>For example looking at Domestic Retail Figures in HK to see if it affects San Miguel Brewery HK in the recent years.</p><p><b>Will share more on returns in part 2.</b></p><p><u>Time for posting K-Pop Pictures</u> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvc5JKml8YOeUtXPEnwajLODehivM3wmuLsJwNKcG_F6_TNLMvFyI-SXOeZbvWucfosm-aXVfAQnvzB1pobzIMUlgfzmNfQzUNnH4Bkfs1c7Ku6s_s_X4qiTJ06cdirKL_BKgwd0YgnPqYKTMaK2gingIJbWQkatOSpa8M3Yfhcm8B7E3fXU4j-0vMzIE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="590" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvc5JKml8YOeUtXPEnwajLODehivM3wmuLsJwNKcG_F6_TNLMvFyI-SXOeZbvWucfosm-aXVfAQnvzB1pobzIMUlgfzmNfQzUNnH4Bkfs1c7Ku6s_s_X4qiTJ06cdirKL_BKgwd0YgnPqYKTMaK2gingIJbWQkatOSpa8M3Yfhcm8B7E3fXU4j-0vMzIE=w332-h590" width="332" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(December 2023)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEioPGSAg_4QFstCdYQYzEZ7LYV6b1i2OmbVduy5UjJQhNkgOAws2cmi-mCuScJptr-utVZ6TE-_YGo1UFfL5tHb2yQpdDRed7WP0ivWvoSm9mATfBh2kiRDPNZ7BElRE3p8GRQuTt2PgfHBaCKXC4-1CTbtVX4i330siKWCwJOGtSbRQi2aSe-bj0UHWmI" style="margin-left: 1em; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="767" height="507" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEguWVuO2ZDUvEA7HsXPgdpTu2CM7c2nFZxTLno0vZzDUUfd-GBkWTaAsUfm9PPFowl8kshx2Vmwpj6jFyNnI81S5j8iS1YFhOVwvNLSX8rMuGnDPTsWHcoFoNcZdZc2N05b5YuGwHWp1SHKMf2OkghxAtCfEmo1VTpT9m-ZHu14jWIhurIlABrQrJJGhEs=w304-h507" width="304" /></a></div>(August 2023)<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi54UXmaweQ-1rbghE8nDmQQx5yUS4lBd7L-hm_YLiNDP542qBomU9bMFz35JfGcZsGhO1htCCZrBY-c2UF51fOrLWXGnzNgR_Q7g2hII5Yzmu8nIpW0yz_yv7oDGvI4iZP_z1kfxQk-J1yvUpdBQ26rveJPFtyx5s_H5-N97p1mm86zfVOXGKPzbre-v4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi54UXmaweQ-1rbghE8nDmQQx5yUS4lBd7L-hm_YLiNDP542qBomU9bMFz35JfGcZsGhO1htCCZrBY-c2UF51fOrLWXGnzNgR_Q7g2hII5Yzmu8nIpW0yz_yv7oDGvI4iZP_z1kfxQk-J1yvUpdBQ26rveJPFtyx5s_H5-N97p1mm86zfVOXGKPzbre-v4=w415-h312" width="415" /></a></div>(August 2023)<br /><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">If you know at least 3 out of the 7 girl groups that the photos are associated with..........wow we might be able to be friends if your interest are K-Pop as well 😂</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>If somehow you managed to survive to the end of the K-pop photos, then why not allow me to talk cock a little further into how i view china stocks in general recently. As usual i am talking cock so it most likely is wrong as i share my view.</p><p>The HSI has recorded a return of -18.89% this year. The tracker fund 2800 returned -15%.</p><p>In terms of stock picking, stocks that did well this year would be the 'resilient' stocks such as China Mobile (<b><span style="color: #38761d;">YTD Return 19.32%</span></b>) and oil stocks such as Petrochina (<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>YTD Return 38.66%</b></span>)</p><p>Stocks that did bad.....well too many Ping An (<span style="color: red;"><b>-36.30%</b></span>), Tencent (<b><span style="color: red;">-17.96%</span></b>), HKEX (<b><span style="color: red;">-24.26%</span></b>), Baba (<b><span style="color: red;">-16.70%</span></b>) .......</p><p>1) <b>Property Market</b></p><p>A quick check on the returns of Property Stocks and Property Management Stocks reveal that negative returns are seen on the share price. For example Country Garden (<span style="color: red;"><b>-72.28%</b></span>) and CG Services (<span style="color: red;"><b>-67.85%</b></span>) other smaller caps that are on my watchlist such as Road King (<b><span style="color: red;">-64.82%</span></b>) , Central China Management (<span style="color: red;"><b>-51.59%</b></span>)</p><p>The contagion has spread and also affected Hong Kong Property Counters such as Sun Hung Kai (<b><span style="color: red;">-23.21%</span></b>). Although that has to do with the high interest rate environment in HK as well as the poor HK Property Market.</p><p>In terms of profitability, property counters are still recording losses and defaulting on debts. </p><p>Country Garden recorded a loss and even gross profit is negative. Its property management arm will be making a large impairment as well.</p><p>I think in 2024, property companies will still continue to suffer as the industry continues to suffer. As long as the big companies are in danger, there will always be abundant of supply and this means that prices will remain depressed as companies are more concerned about cash flow instead of profitability.</p><p>The longer it drags, the more companies will be affected. Unfortunately, from how we have seen how Evergrande has took so many years and is still a zombie company, i feel that it will take a very very long time for the supply glut to clear. Especially when the economy is bad and folks are not thinking of buying property for investment any more.</p><p>For Property Services Company, most of them are writing off their receivables as property companies are unable to pay them. As such it will affect them as well as those 3rd party property agents like BEKE.</p><p>The thought that has been in my mind is, can the industry recover when the companies are still defaulting on debt payment / recording losses / impairing left right centre? </p><p>My thought is that it will not and as such if the company fundamentals do not improve or if we do not see any big transactions of land owned by companies in financial troubles being purchased by state owned companies, then it is unlikely that it will recover.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEizUTHQTknlhETMEAulgdbxr3h5seUnMo83-Tu_VfcZ3FCAjHhDcRvJGhb1VYC9wD0Aun_bQJaArvdOp-cy_g00CubvWsWfNiaU6Rv33h1ayt2dMTLN4K4qnUbBTlrnno9eRJC4C48gSCeV7PlQXz7CrN340VEmQMQEcVlCtmsfK9sRsXSqY_LnmtHjBjE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="716" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEizUTHQTknlhETMEAulgdbxr3h5seUnMo83-Tu_VfcZ3FCAjHhDcRvJGhb1VYC9wD0Aun_bQJaArvdOp-cy_g00CubvWsWfNiaU6Rv33h1ayt2dMTLN4K4qnUbBTlrnno9eRJC4C48gSCeV7PlQXz7CrN340VEmQMQEcVlCtmsfK9sRsXSqY_LnmtHjBjE=w336-h300" width="336" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Top 100 Property Company Sales down 34.9% in November. YTD, Sales down 17.9%.</div><br /><br /><p></p><p>2) <b>Economy</b></p><p>China is expected to record 5.4% of economic growth in 2023. But when we take a look at the industrial profits, it seems to be saying a completely different story.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhL72tJsICfCjCo1c3FmtiFWQu3j2WRIAOgXSFDDJK0gToCBiqJAQmeM0bClS34SibAmVc2MTZi-T2rsAQUZHJmkyUXD706lhSOZdU9H4igadJzZlr9m0TlP27Ybm6VauO6aH2GG-klWfnOnkQ1FQIUJKMoxSrtpoltTWwL2welTRBd9lkRbEjbX9khRmE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="660" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhL72tJsICfCjCo1c3FmtiFWQu3j2WRIAOgXSFDDJK0gToCBiqJAQmeM0bClS34SibAmVc2MTZi-T2rsAQUZHJmkyUXD706lhSOZdU9H4igadJzZlr9m0TlP27Ybm6VauO6aH2GG-klWfnOnkQ1FQIUJKMoxSrtpoltTWwL2welTRBd9lkRbEjbX9khRmE=w493-h328" width="493" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDZ40NPzPBtrKX_2vDGSdsXqhglZ9_ohXmGhzLtXYS_oJs6_zS_se8csQw7Jt1JtHHmf97ns1OKxUWgZYe7RColeDi6J51BmXQcKvKPLPgIEYc-PzfPmQJlp5WGbcPrmxrIzvqenKTanu3VIVfh-tvbez9Slbp4Z0CVBHRgX95ngWMt9CNNEQFDrZtk3s" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="660" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDZ40NPzPBtrKX_2vDGSdsXqhglZ9_ohXmGhzLtXYS_oJs6_zS_se8csQw7Jt1JtHHmf97ns1OKxUWgZYe7RColeDi6J51BmXQcKvKPLPgIEYc-PzfPmQJlp5WGbcPrmxrIzvqenKTanu3VIVfh-tvbez9Slbp4Z0CVBHRgX95ngWMt9CNNEQFDrZtk3s=w511-h340" width="511" /></a></div><br /><br /></div>As such, for shareholders it seems to be bad as profits are on a downwards trend.<br /><br /><p></p><p>A look at the retail sales reveal there is growth seen</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhmIjap1JrQQM2v91E1ftNXWJS_u36sZU6RgAeeefynuDndL-aaRBpJeiz7a-k0ozBLy7Fg7GcRqiUDEKwCDKQmqrKtwGe3GXjy89H2gnHqfLYijZlsDa7svNQb2UMXxZbtx014p1W_uCjsuICSo0k268xzvGhhp3czj-t3HV7GIhZ5B6dolm2A_f8RgTg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="757" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhmIjap1JrQQM2v91E1ftNXWJS_u36sZU6RgAeeefynuDndL-aaRBpJeiz7a-k0ozBLy7Fg7GcRqiUDEKwCDKQmqrKtwGe3GXjy89H2gnHqfLYijZlsDa7svNQb2UMXxZbtx014p1W_uCjsuICSo0k268xzvGhhp3czj-t3HV7GIhZ5B6dolm2A_f8RgTg=w532-h440" width="532" /></a></div>Key double digit growth in November include Telecommunication, Clothes, Sports and Recreation as well as Tobacco.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUKRAeC4R4XxPW8Kf-DGsqrMQCujc2xWrOel3YBIbYQDrR6vA5cjFWuAVV8idfA7nurF_K0cIaaXV3JCPlslV5m7Wutyfk_sw_DXbyj1Z7rmSedeOuZUcfbpcIJBK0PVpnCzxZ_xHez8yHfJ-nr0BMxzhFaV0QnW0to_kq8GFe2QOniFBCfYd3GhEjqdI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="750" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUKRAeC4R4XxPW8Kf-DGsqrMQCujc2xWrOel3YBIbYQDrR6vA5cjFWuAVV8idfA7nurF_K0cIaaXV3JCPlslV5m7Wutyfk_sw_DXbyj1Z7rmSedeOuZUcfbpcIJBK0PVpnCzxZ_xHez8yHfJ-nr0BMxzhFaV0QnW0to_kq8GFe2QOniFBCfYd3GhEjqdI=w517-h482" width="517" /></a></div>(Profit Increase in Tobacco Company)<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgF-wJoK3Ajl1THWN87WfKmE9gi94RbtmtyJ6jUUHMTHB2d2qCMhsjTnWoMc7hDeefX1rTeFDY4dl9RY5D4vm8-rr4ulyp2XzIj7q_boZgNPMtVJHiFaYbbABOGoQeES9ZcPtiW9-kXTVJWgShp3sCAvQPSJug_WYdsAQX-OBLKVkWlgGb0fAcJzEqhjcc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="294" data-original-width="589" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgF-wJoK3Ajl1THWN87WfKmE9gi94RbtmtyJ6jUUHMTHB2d2qCMhsjTnWoMc7hDeefX1rTeFDY4dl9RY5D4vm8-rr4ulyp2XzIj7q_boZgNPMtVJHiFaYbbABOGoQeES9ZcPtiW9-kXTVJWgShp3sCAvQPSJug_WYdsAQX-OBLKVkWlgGb0fAcJzEqhjcc=w438-h219" width="438" /></a></div></div><p></p><p>Travel is back as well in China as China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited recorded a gain of 27% in revenue in 3Q 2023.</p><p>And when we look at other indicators such as PPI and CPI, it continues to fall as well.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg15BXkHwFabvykQDX9J2pROO-hrmJm3lGM7WYHDEscK7QIiJl1Mfjlu7pHCJ20KgQMDo1PI6XG7mzt-aJGeMPsJvrnABpDA7xRJhv-ux6pK_5KTp1oFcUnhN1sJF6MhqGPcIofQ4I_3F8X7Sva8by8LL45LeaGCfFm2l4WlebRhJlqu2l3Wjhjwx0gO08" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="756" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg15BXkHwFabvykQDX9J2pROO-hrmJm3lGM7WYHDEscK7QIiJl1Mfjlu7pHCJ20KgQMDo1PI6XG7mzt-aJGeMPsJvrnABpDA7xRJhv-ux6pK_5KTp1oFcUnhN1sJF6MhqGPcIofQ4I_3F8X7Sva8by8LL45LeaGCfFm2l4WlebRhJlqu2l3Wjhjwx0gO08=w555-h274" width="555" /></a></div><p></p><p>So it is a weird sight as corporate profits are down but sales are up and there is economic growth despite price fall and production price fall.</p><p>3) <b>Employment</b></p><p>We have heard of the youth unemployment rate data being removed. But the overall unemployment rate according to official data has been decreasing.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyw-KyJnGzKqIR9-q3btNDnyCr5UTuyfaSjmq35FpvRWGhLQ-WxxA6U8BNaAxRdDepYeOlQD5BMxZzHW01KPP7JYfWRrLQ2mxxiEk3VAg67Ub4C5NHrYz8DpILEB_UAIZYy37cMgaOzCBXwHcdjH5Daw6YV39t3wf9sOWHsSgwlK0TrfkNaXlfeFpDsJw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="650" height="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyw-KyJnGzKqIR9-q3btNDnyCr5UTuyfaSjmq35FpvRWGhLQ-WxxA6U8BNaAxRdDepYeOlQD5BMxZzHW01KPP7JYfWRrLQ2mxxiEk3VAg67Ub4C5NHrYz8DpILEB_UAIZYy37cMgaOzCBXwHcdjH5Daw6YV39t3wf9sOWHsSgwlK0TrfkNaXlfeFpDsJw=w493-h389" width="493" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>4) <b>Random 3Q China Sales</b></p><p>Nike in Greater China. 3Q 2023, 8% Revenue Growth Excluding Currency Effect.</p><p>XTEP = High Teens.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhqEjZ-4mI42swJuFqdc4_g3y3WuJgz0LEgXF1Yma6Dmu_moxKEKBfs4Mk8DktmWWAKJcHvaXQa1nkRIN0NpSaPxQ9a5UXFUBCPrOqplhSJbiIn5aliNrsfDhPyf-82jaY0v81qYr32FXrdl9iRvNJpRPFF_paN3h_XqzYF_zOz3-W49Gmx2ycs2DiBFII" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="674" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhqEjZ-4mI42swJuFqdc4_g3y3WuJgz0LEgXF1Yma6Dmu_moxKEKBfs4Mk8DktmWWAKJcHvaXQa1nkRIN0NpSaPxQ9a5UXFUBCPrOqplhSJbiIn5aliNrsfDhPyf-82jaY0v81qYr32FXrdl9iRvNJpRPFF_paN3h_XqzYF_zOz3-W49Gmx2ycs2DiBFII=w519-h253" width="519" /></a></div>As such, it supports the thesis of sports products in China being strong. <p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwLNcV__1lqxGiIgvZ1FKcwNZVloesmGn1zGaCd3xnnLqqH5mSa4p5Lldg3TBxx4B4vkdimZBeBSwJpp81pA1tiWHgk7lEeDwf9l7e_tLunFSrJjNpRPGnKoflqosM_POKU-ihvkQZJlLja3d2GhPULMBjjl-xOXAlmPXyO2EYqaps2s333lSctvT021M" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="801" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwLNcV__1lqxGiIgvZ1FKcwNZVloesmGn1zGaCd3xnnLqqH5mSa4p5Lldg3TBxx4B4vkdimZBeBSwJpp81pA1tiWHgk7lEeDwf9l7e_tLunFSrJjNpRPGnKoflqosM_POKU-ihvkQZJlLja3d2GhPULMBjjl-xOXAlmPXyO2EYqaps2s333lSctvT021M=w578-h221" width="578" /></a></div>While instant noodles sales at Nissin for the China Region has recovered, it seems like headwind still persist.<p></p><p>However, if we look at some tourist numbers, they continue to look good.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihyO0YJlWGH-eBI2fSLT7zSTJ4pI_YtV6NWy6GLO1eNySFvCHydDG0VudeKMtfH6CpZX5SIioa3NmzYcfEhNR_m46K4zCNMdv_iXwbeCSC8d89FKF1vVq-Sqo20AM9K5DUFvSo1ctsLtK_M-hbp4LSKQ3LGgyOvlot8PQ0AFHIlPYMj1NRYOqdGBZLDDU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="555" data-original-width="873" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihyO0YJlWGH-eBI2fSLT7zSTJ4pI_YtV6NWy6GLO1eNySFvCHydDG0VudeKMtfH6CpZX5SIioa3NmzYcfEhNR_m46K4zCNMdv_iXwbeCSC8d89FKF1vVq-Sqo20AM9K5DUFvSo1ctsLtK_M-hbp4LSKQ3LGgyOvlot8PQ0AFHIlPYMj1NRYOqdGBZLDDU=w565-h359" width="565" /></a></div>Shanghai Disneyland has broke pre-covid average daily numbers. With Zootopia opening in December 2023, it will serve as an impetus for 2024.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg_4eTE7ouaXDmfa7H6laQ-Tl7vJTxBp9fiqa7RPd8YqaZYatFJone2p3l2h0hs-bQtt88FmvgHlL6MdQ2_6nBwCBePEMmlX-RVIyjMq4xrAqmGeJ6W7UZFeIh519ntiW1gka2tb9stIDn9ypR_1KRqu3WjsW22k_HmbKbKHmSl44DilgQJToV3zvuIy4Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="780" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg_4eTE7ouaXDmfa7H6laQ-Tl7vJTxBp9fiqa7RPd8YqaZYatFJone2p3l2h0hs-bQtt88FmvgHlL6MdQ2_6nBwCBePEMmlX-RVIyjMq4xrAqmGeJ6W7UZFeIh519ntiW1gka2tb9stIDn9ypR_1KRqu3WjsW22k_HmbKbKHmSl44DilgQJToV3zvuIy4Q=w488-h256" width="488" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj37bKA3no0KXRM3sm9FzhdMOWQtWDibSissWVAMfx9OuAufuxCKw1XH1wI_Qt5f4N3ODiaUoQwxHRxch4vP_jUNObOllhnmVDT9bs2NKCgedqeHejbO87ZlLqVEGaQc8iU3Yh9y6p6s8heAfC23zzUYkNgp5kwR620YyyV5Y09bvHofGvQ-bHNbTqqq5s" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="641" data-original-width="731" height="439" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj37bKA3no0KXRM3sm9FzhdMOWQtWDibSissWVAMfx9OuAufuxCKw1XH1wI_Qt5f4N3ODiaUoQwxHRxch4vP_jUNObOllhnmVDT9bs2NKCgedqeHejbO87ZlLqVEGaQc8iU3Yh9y6p6s8heAfC23zzUYkNgp5kwR620YyyV5Y09bvHofGvQ-bHNbTqqq5s=w501-h439" width="501" /></a></div><br />So yeah, for the back end of the year, i guess travel related in China might be where i want to take a look at if any. With deposits falling, this might spur more consumption or investments. However, with investing looking very difficult in China with the many crackdowns as well as property downturn, perhaps some might prefer spending it instead,<p></p><p>5) <b>Crackdown on Tech Industry</b></p><p>After tuition industry crackdown in 2022, we have seen recent crackdown in the game industry in December 2023 as a paper asking for opinion was issued. The fear is that usually such papers do happen to be real and in chinese there is a saying '无风不起浪' which means that waves are formed because of wind. As such, i believe the officials would not prepare the documents to seek for opinion if it was not going to happen.</p><p>I think of it like going to supermarket but every item is not on discount. Will it deter folks from playing the games? I guess it might but it is unlikely. However, it is likely to restrict spending and revenue gained from promotions that promote spending. One of the biggest advantage of these games are the economies of scale of game products. Unlike buying a car / buying a property / buying a physical product where there is cost involved in producing an additional unit, the game products have no such concerns. Which means that they can easily give many promotions. </p><p>Having said that, the final verdict on what is allowed and what is not allowed is not out yet but it seems like some folks have had enough of it and it led to the big sell down.</p><p>Thinking about that, what can be hit next? One might ponder. Would it be pricing of premium alcohol? Would it be pricing of tobacco? Would it be livestreaming being benefitting companies too much or benefitting live streamers too much such that the products sold are not of good quality? Would it be taxing on companies that are too pollutive?</p><p>We might have to think what is vice or bad in terms of Chinese sense for the people. In Chinese there is a phrase 五毒 = 烟酒嫖赌毒 . Which means the 5 vice are Cigarette, Alcohol, Prostitution, Gambling and Drugs</p><p>While not taking the term literally, we have seen how mobile game can be drugs as people can be addicted to it. As such, could giving rewards to streamers or excessive buying on livestream shopping channels be a vice?</p><p>Could Douyin or Kuaishou, watching too much of these short duration videos be an addiction?</p><p>Could over-relying on food delivery riders be an addiction as this leads to people being fat or obese?</p><p>There are many possibilities and many ways to screw the tech industry if they want to.....</p><p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></p></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-87862966512234398392023-12-14T21:02:00.000-08:002023-12-14T21:02:16.495-08:00My last new stock purchase of 2023 (likely)<p> As the title goes, this will very likely be the last new stock purchase of 2023 unless something interesting pops up in the final weeks of December. While it is unlikely, sometimes never say never.</p><p><br /></p><p>The company that I newly initiated is San Miguel Brewery HK (Hkex:0236). Like its name (SMB HK) suggest, it is a beer producer. I will address it in short form SMHK / SMBHK in the post ahead.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1pBY2j8dOKhimR0DjJTaeB5MSVrDRUiTqog6LSj9GQW_7WmP8exJiWBG_OAcJ3YVz7Lz-EFRf2AAWp5jYH3f42aAgV2OwT0tMmmvwYc6kitrSmQI6vDyhXtwfcryUnApBAKsdetgs3XZBKRh-MdB2yevY1wR6flzUm6GKRsK7w0QnFqfwUyTFzX-fQ1I" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="355" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1pBY2j8dOKhimR0DjJTaeB5MSVrDRUiTqog6LSj9GQW_7WmP8exJiWBG_OAcJ3YVz7Lz-EFRf2AAWp5jYH3f42aAgV2OwT0tMmmvwYc6kitrSmQI6vDyhXtwfcryUnApBAKsdetgs3XZBKRh-MdB2yevY1wR6flzUm6GKRsK7w0QnFqfwUyTFzX-fQ1I" width="320" /></a></div>Lets take a look at some of its latest basic financials (taking into account trading price of 0.77 HKD as of 14 December 2023)<p></p><p>Trailing PE: 3.70</p><p>Price to Book Value: 0.46</p><p>Cash Cover Current and Non-Current Liabilities? = Yes</p><p>9 cents of free cash after Cash-Liabilities. </p><p>Investment Properties Stated at Cost? = Yes. At fair value it is around 396 million more than book value. This translates to around 1.06 HKD of 'hidden' value.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirp24KPrDZDH8xF7xsUZ52u45YyWoVfQyR827fopRms--W-2_7hrV7zCFE1aOSoMvLauCDlb32oAwMEOexT-iGHQJGD_IOsWG9owmiikgJxtBavG2hku6D6SxJ1I6H2Mmd6K0NR4uWtUgN855eGLd9783ejEv3T3OL9iJS6E9F76548a_vFaN9lt0uzbE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="83" data-original-width="549" height="88" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirp24KPrDZDH8xF7xsUZ52u45YyWoVfQyR827fopRms--W-2_7hrV7zCFE1aOSoMvLauCDlb32oAwMEOexT-iGHQJGD_IOsWG9owmiikgJxtBavG2hku6D6SxJ1I6H2Mmd6K0NR4uWtUgN855eGLd9783ejEv3T3OL9iJS6E9F76548a_vFaN9lt0uzbE=w587-h88" width="587" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWDTVuC86ihGErQl5a6JhGwXa2-dlwBF5_TKkmHTSdyPBn33hKjw2-uLnPXUwhj2x4Vq9JWEIaevecS6bTZNBL88iWNDOQf9ZMWS86S647dG105yQ7zPpK_FM4wXUyBnO_fsTH_m7Up_FtcsVV7O03wtH9sDgBWZ-QJv40Px6oct8e6uxbNeDBBNsz3OQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="112" data-original-width="382" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWDTVuC86ihGErQl5a6JhGwXa2-dlwBF5_TKkmHTSdyPBn33hKjw2-uLnPXUwhj2x4Vq9JWEIaevecS6bTZNBL88iWNDOQf9ZMWS86S647dG105yQ7zPpK_FM4wXUyBnO_fsTH_m7Up_FtcsVV7O03wtH9sDgBWZ-QJv40Px6oct8e6uxbNeDBBNsz3OQ=w511-h150" width="511" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>Of course based on above is this a buy? I think the zzxbzz of pre-covid might have just jumped in to take a small stake but i guess with discount rates so high now and opportunity cost getting even higher, there is really a need to take a closer look at the earnings side.</p><p><b>Earnings Thesis: Record 1H 2023 but really unlikely (90% chance) to repeat it in 2H 2023.</b></p><p>San Miguel HK had an earnings blowout of 0.13 HKD in 1H 2023. On closer look at its results, we can infer that the results are as a result of export growth.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNdswmerA_wu32CjsdD6xH2dmSEfBRc278Xecm3_HfCUQyjCFY2fOZSDtBGx1WzUY6HJU2j1bK1cEjiY1B0FYQ974ebXmp4qEFeYnGBuYTVxiZ6SWEKSxxTkPMeCY151kCiuCoeN559NDeP40ynliWAX4VvATQ0BZGRsKbz9ofJgcSVKPT0enFNMgGOGU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="395" data-original-width="540" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNdswmerA_wu32CjsdD6xH2dmSEfBRc278Xecm3_HfCUQyjCFY2fOZSDtBGx1WzUY6HJU2j1bK1cEjiY1B0FYQ974ebXmp4qEFeYnGBuYTVxiZ6SWEKSxxTkPMeCY151kCiuCoeN559NDeP40ynliWAX4VvATQ0BZGRsKbz9ofJgcSVKPT0enFNMgGOGU=w399-h292" width="399" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Both Breweries in HK and China turning into positive EBIT</div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh9XhfSOGXbfC-zktxNS3QmNEGkzIyQrL6NtP3sSCzwhXpP0iLepf4Rimt2-o_tDpdUBXrGM0MtTDwBOA2iAz-f-swMzah9IUheRN3G1ee4_E0VCtYbADUt-a_RNxtTPK4HCwPtTx6PAW_lWnF4tnZJjfsZo2CJC4Fa3EPDP5Vwom7gAMPpPV_JXBQuAB0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="597" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh9XhfSOGXbfC-zktxNS3QmNEGkzIyQrL6NtP3sSCzwhXpP0iLepf4Rimt2-o_tDpdUBXrGM0MtTDwBOA2iAz-f-swMzah9IUheRN3G1ee4_E0VCtYbADUt-a_RNxtTPK4HCwPtTx6PAW_lWnF4tnZJjfsZo2CJC4Fa3EPDP5Vwom7gAMPpPV_JXBQuAB0=w397-h396" width="397" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">International (Exports) was the main revenue driver for 1H 2023</div><br />Why did i say that this is not possible to be replicated? This is due to the export 'Cap' that the company has with San Miguel Group which exports San Miguel Beer to the international market<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgALjT6KOYiPDC3vdVHulbYYjtQwnrjlvA8U3ZDY-VXgCij1hrwQ-BzBE-HWNzOX89doElbA22kpYUtK8hM1X3NKrzMMtuBHwMuNTDWNpeoyIoVVsXzfeKhhBL-tDigV7_usJ3t98rDpbW_sxzoPYRJpLvcJ_4UOeDPzO1jed8nBnvptUCTxBgUBOzXQAA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="504" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgALjT6KOYiPDC3vdVHulbYYjtQwnrjlvA8U3ZDY-VXgCij1hrwQ-BzBE-HWNzOX89doElbA22kpYUtK8hM1X3NKrzMMtuBHwMuNTDWNpeoyIoVVsXzfeKhhBL-tDigV7_usJ3t98rDpbW_sxzoPYRJpLvcJ_4UOeDPzO1jed8nBnvptUCTxBgUBOzXQAA=w388-h308" width="388" /></a></div>As at 30 June 2023, the connected amount is 251 million. Which is close to 98% of the International Sales of the Company.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzwySyCVgR-LudI8CHwW4fU71leYS0PccaPHdwwu-iPtW2anV2zpu2WpOK1LDKfl9cYswF81R4DKsLZhhUW89Ce8A_03v3lWJLWRckI88lZB6RebExcQFW34U_SgLMLKC3gUxqML9f9BsXkc4DEQfAbi63DFjBDAMtBTilnOXD6M-Ha8SOpIg7yZgN4xQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="1052" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzwySyCVgR-LudI8CHwW4fU71leYS0PccaPHdwwu-iPtW2anV2zpu2WpOK1LDKfl9cYswF81R4DKsLZhhUW89Ce8A_03v3lWJLWRckI88lZB6RebExcQFW34U_SgLMLKC3gUxqML9f9BsXkc4DEQfAbi63DFjBDAMtBTilnOXD6M-Ha8SOpIg7yZgN4xQ=w575-h343" width="575" /></a></div>Unfortunately, this cap is at 407 million. Which means that at best, the company can only sell another 155 million to San Miguel Group under this arrangement. While SMB HK does sell some amount to international that is not connected, it remains to be seen if they can expand this portion in 2H 2023. Should it be unable to do so, then 2H 2023 will unlikely exceed 1H 2023.<p></p><p>However, the <b>guided amount of 2024 and 2025 is around 17% more than the previous year which is encouraging growth to be seen should it be delivered</b>. Any potential upside will come from the change of terms of this transaction.</p><p><br />However, if we look at the company's financials in another angle (From the parent company)<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJE41DpFKCgmUf0o0PgmZLn3d088v8wwC5AovorFF4hpg9NIT2HuFcz72KgsYOWkReskFr9cIwJeqrlaKl-IaRCN5jRCUlEtXyMM5q_V5_SgGl5Yxm7IJJ2Kunmgv1OHsyVmAjtAh6JvUkQEqBmmwIaqKLXXt1z5QIOepZF7ak3yQKBV2Ppqf6w6IICig" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="652" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJE41DpFKCgmUf0o0PgmZLn3d088v8wwC5AovorFF4hpg9NIT2HuFcz72KgsYOWkReskFr9cIwJeqrlaKl-IaRCN5jRCUlEtXyMM5q_V5_SgGl5Yxm7IJJ2Kunmgv1OHsyVmAjtAh6JvUkQEqBmmwIaqKLXXt1z5QIOepZF7ak3yQKBV2Ppqf6w6IICig=w491-h311" width="491" /></a></div><br />The wording for 3Q 2023 does not sound bad. However, we have to be mindful that last year was a low base and this commentary is for 9 months 2023 altogether instead of just 3rd Quarter.<p></p><p>This is where we need to try to do some deep dive to find out if we can find any correlation for the earnings. After some many nights of digging and sleeping on it and then digging again.</p><p>There are 2 methods that we can use to try to guess its earnings. </p><p>1) <i><b>The good old NCI Method.</b></i></p><p>In the 2022 Annual Report, there are 5 companies that are part of the NCI.</p><p>They are PTD (Indonesia), HK (San Miguel HK), SMBTL, BPI and SMHTL (Thailand)</p><p>The 2022 net income distribution among themselves are 71.54%, 16.05%, 0%, 2.64%, 9.75%</p><p>However, the NCI representation is weird and haywire which makes any counting not accurate</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi54WneBiuqFRlZf-42cH4YGTMXzi7X-PUsBLcyDkcyacm3J1DTnSkQ9LAUyCgHYuR5rmfg9V_j8sWuIilQzzJZ_4gHi90LUwyejBgm7dGU_FQ32WLNMaGF8GIWwL46ceWNQISc-xK3pdkXPavMP-Qm5gTIN5HeLDHKGgbJVc_p5XMbLnyXU2e9bzmZTzs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="355" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi54WneBiuqFRlZf-42cH4YGTMXzi7X-PUsBLcyDkcyacm3J1DTnSkQ9LAUyCgHYuR5rmfg9V_j8sWuIilQzzJZ_4gHi90LUwyejBgm7dGU_FQ32WLNMaGF8GIWwL46ceWNQISc-xK3pdkXPavMP-Qm5gTIN5HeLDHKGgbJVc_p5XMbLnyXU2e9bzmZTzs=w317-h406" width="317" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhfvEyg-wF4Nh-Lf7QEB7A_hofstIZ2kbKsvOo81DmnZLAxEaRYV7lJTmSLLHZLg7hr9T2sSCduQGTw20c2fKCzoD3rKPWgme6OCrLqV524fXDxa-h8N6R1h9QRA5Czb1iKqbt6FVlPDgsN5hgV37Rxh2y3BMASX0S5ihyCVKFqtEtLgfgMg886ecfcKw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="678" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhfvEyg-wF4Nh-Lf7QEB7A_hofstIZ2kbKsvOo81DmnZLAxEaRYV7lJTmSLLHZLg7hr9T2sSCduQGTw20c2fKCzoD3rKPWgme6OCrLqV524fXDxa-h8N6R1h9QRA5Czb1iKqbt6FVlPDgsN5hgV37Rxh2y3BMASX0S5ihyCVKFqtEtLgfgMg886ecfcKw=w445-h336" width="445" /></a></div><p><br /></p>Net Income Attributable to NCI on the segment page is P492 but on the financial performance page. it is only P275.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEix8uZiLDJZ5etQOPxfGahd84P9KMLMOIf3Si2Q3TSeA2w1kTmo3kIZf41EK7E-DbGlUr5rSI39-MXHYyxiCTeJpraNxw-ZNpZPd8I4GK75uS8tlYq70TRY7Ffnp-EINqWCiI05yUWdaZYUXC9iOaado6PUyrjLVv8gEuKN6Q-WpFWwWiDtGefQo20QN4s" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="378" height="407" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEix8uZiLDJZ5etQOPxfGahd84P9KMLMOIf3Si2Q3TSeA2w1kTmo3kIZf41EK7E-DbGlUr5rSI39-MXHYyxiCTeJpraNxw-ZNpZPd8I4GK75uS8tlYq70TRY7Ffnp-EINqWCiI05yUWdaZYUXC9iOaado6PUyrjLVv8gEuKN6Q-WpFWwWiDtGefQo20QN4s=w295-h407" width="295" /></a></div><br />To make things even harder to count, the SMBTL has a mind boggling financial results in 2021/2022. At 2021, it has positive carrying interest for NCI and Negative Equity of P2022. In 2022, despite turning in net income positive, comprehensive income positive and no dividends declared, equity fell to negative P2039 and carrying amount for NCI is negative.<p></p><p>As such, using <b><span style="background-color: white; color: red;">NCI is not a good option</span></b>. For example, <b>NCI decreased from 420 in 2021 to 275 in 2022 but SMBHK net income to NCI increased from 48 to 79 in the same time frame.</b></p><p><br /></p><p>2) <i><b>Estimating from International Beer Operations Method</b></i>.</p><p>International Beer Operations consist of 5 companies. PTD, San Miguel HK, San Miguel Exports, Other 2 companies (small hence not mentioned)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDLICd7O42cgwTqtuoKh6fR165kbYjVAib4BRTl0XyCHn09_CBOn-BQyhKoO5DYLSk7DQ_pmCsjCd2ML7I0FlwxRu3au1IO3Tb719YD8nzjU_tYE0iFBXMYYrzBJ580xciDBcOgsGXdpJ_3viPmIt80DW934QUpJXLd2MIWyM1xi0d0M8MxhOY8r0h0Ic" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="124" data-original-width="547" height="91" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDLICd7O42cgwTqtuoKh6fR165kbYjVAib4BRTl0XyCHn09_CBOn-BQyhKoO5DYLSk7DQ_pmCsjCd2ML7I0FlwxRu3au1IO3Tb719YD8nzjU_tYE0iFBXMYYrzBJ580xciDBcOgsGXdpJ_3viPmIt80DW934QUpJXLd2MIWyM1xi0d0M8MxhOY8r0h0Ic=w399-h91" width="399" /></a></div></div><br />In 2022, San Miguel HK contributed 10% of profits to international operations<p></p><p>PT. DELTA DJAKARTA TBK (PTD), another arm of San Miguel which does the Indonesia Operations, contributed 38.19%. Other 2 companies contributed 8% and 4% while the rest is exports. Which is weird as the 4 companies mentioned above made 84% of international revenue while only explaining 62% of profits.</p><p>Bearing the above in mind, we plotted PTD's profit as a % of international operations as well as SMBHK. We see a trend that is very obvious in 1H 2023 is that the increase in SMHK Profits has led to increased Int Ops Net Income weightage and reduced weightage of PTD's International Ops Weightage.</p><p>As PTD continue to contribute around 22.96% in 3Q 2023, we can guess that SMHK would not outperform 1H 2023 results when divided by 2 but likely fall around the range of 10-15% worst off.</p><p><b>That to me isn't bad at all. </b></p><p>Of course this method <b>has its drawbacks</b> as there could be <b>other factors which affect the Int Ops Net Income and weightage</b>. Also, when SMHK increased profit, the increase is not exactly the same as the increase in Int Ops Net Income.</p><p>Other News / Factors that might play a part in the analysis</p><p>1) <b>HK Alcohol and Tobacco Retail Sale Statistics</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgB0HK3zaPlGSVsJM8SEdv_iIOmvRScZnJpuM6QSwEDizUk7EuODgEUgAoCgEjvupda58Y6AVvB2InJBCQdNEbI5aQ7Gu3WQQjNcN0TyuK9U7sgrzorS8z4WfsAFwNpgtdKF00C1Bc55UmDtD9fyxE_fkVH3WV52RBzStMyYwLCP3GOlqso8A5vi-_2C34" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="705" data-original-width="330" height="643" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgB0HK3zaPlGSVsJM8SEdv_iIOmvRScZnJpuM6QSwEDizUk7EuODgEUgAoCgEjvupda58Y6AVvB2InJBCQdNEbI5aQ7Gu3WQQjNcN0TyuK9U7sgrzorS8z4WfsAFwNpgtdKF00C1Bc55UmDtD9fyxE_fkVH3WV52RBzStMyYwLCP3GOlqso8A5vi-_2C34=w300-h643" width="300" /></a></div><br />While there is no strong correlation between that and the sales of alcohol in HK for SMHK, it is still good to see that the value of retail sales in 2023 have rebounded strongly and also 2H 2023 is breaking new highs since Jan 2021.<p></p><p>2) <b>Bar Pacific Revenue</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIdPXqVQhJlEJ5RMFnQJO-QUyCBAq_CZVmICxc_deWwfFdVyak1fv7MTORhLm69ymhgV_wuuLzgBCZgIb24VDNk6T17Dov8rBKyTokzXeGDikavQB6kFrLbWtQHO_fARM2ANuRVqLFDCZNYaLLpx5WVkTqr-i3TrrHQ_fDnvA3To62cSQA_Qi3rEPzzY8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="207" data-original-width="607" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIdPXqVQhJlEJ5RMFnQJO-QUyCBAq_CZVmICxc_deWwfFdVyak1fv7MTORhLm69ymhgV_wuuLzgBCZgIb24VDNk6T17Dov8rBKyTokzXeGDikavQB6kFrLbWtQHO_fARM2ANuRVqLFDCZNYaLLpx5WVkTqr-i3TrrHQ_fDnvA3To62cSQA_Qi3rEPzzY8=w547-h187" width="547" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgy-G3KeoqMgG3LSO41mbZHXyM7wVidYbveMQq90iGJHfNhmlBS7_OfyzK81O-tqedP-j2e94jjgKOo_eGmwGz6Ej7bMWb31xPVtiPRM8tNC1kmumpN635NDWL3yBRYbszb3O1cPqMLzVibZHkTJKBUYLRzVopepUuwd5gGYY9m8uf1D6_P8jhwrxHOJrI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="430" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgy-G3KeoqMgG3LSO41mbZHXyM7wVidYbveMQq90iGJHfNhmlBS7_OfyzK81O-tqedP-j2e94jjgKOo_eGmwGz6Ej7bMWb31xPVtiPRM8tNC1kmumpN635NDWL3yBRYbszb3O1cPqMLzVibZHkTJKBUYLRzVopepUuwd5gGYY9m8uf1D6_P8jhwrxHOJrI=w468-h326" width="468" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo3_yd7zG_3dKbnMf9DWXuJ1PoV0pwVNSaWvUyT5DWA0kKz4_SD2OzWu-S9NKT305h3ncYxtypXGAL0DT6c-lBP5n82j69velHV4cwIKUHNPrru5EdNw_ZEO4qs1YfoWOHt_AShTuZgAQkKe5oGsKVLXrwKewn1-Dc8Eaz1B4chIljdVxEh7_1h2_S8CY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1238" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo3_yd7zG_3dKbnMf9DWXuJ1PoV0pwVNSaWvUyT5DWA0kKz4_SD2OzWu-S9NKT305h3ncYxtypXGAL0DT6c-lBP5n82j69velHV4cwIKUHNPrru5EdNw_ZEO4qs1YfoWOHt_AShTuZgAQkKe5oGsKVLXrwKewn1-Dc8Eaz1B4chIljdVxEh7_1h2_S8CY=w519-h312" width="519" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Saint Mig Products being sold at Bar Pacific)</div><br /></div><br /></div>Bar Pacific as its name suggest, operates bars/pubs in HK. As such we can see that revenue improved from 49.4m to 56.8m from 2Q 2023 to 3Q 2023. This is an increase of about 14%.<br /><p></p><p>As Bar Pacific does carry Saint Mig products under its outlets, this carries some relevance but the extent is not big. </p><p>Nevertheless, it shows that there is <b>increase in consumption trends for alcohol in HK</b>.</p><p>3) <b>SMHK Investment Property Long Term Sole Tenant</b></p><p>Perhaps a book value / deep book value investor favourite, there are some updates on the investment property that i have mentioned above earlier.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="835" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY=w537-h384" width="537" /></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="826" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixkCqfqglbyOftuTEm7aKMaAkRwBlDchmUuwl-4123Ko4XOyWjFxgI4UQEz0tv1SrijrsYsBEV2bXCAkNM78TeEsaZttqKhZFNpz9W0lCQWB5lGzuxqLh-tEumtQ9pzfns615OhSEof10yDIaPOUV2D_Yesz02YFCWp9n7Jb_awLr_-BJS311SfcMiKtY=w536-h323" width="536" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="109" data-original-width="385" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiC79uwcYk4iXW0rk_JZSejIk-2qgcl0-Pi-1phNJykzQd8oC3N2uDtjS6RB9c004tPAtSUzWMbRxJcm70nDkNFQJ4Lr49-TspOaX9TxqypGZ1rxplg1_X4N4One9LMzQR6Lx4X2_OzU13z8E3QmefO9fO3O3mYpX3FfX_KrsvemS35KU6funLU4mBgF0s=w471-h134" width="471" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgcs3YJl7JVZl8ArNVuXaY2W7hVbrO8i8gy3hY5I4XM0wuU1r58gFBnFZeMU2YNLnzFl1yCEMs63A8fbFMrvw_IqnBsxHNzyz1cUEjIGG8uveNlYau_PIniO33Tj__B3tQmRLN0spAxQKVYtxoasjdIdrKpF69HhfQbu8wPupv5RCnW4W76wcANGIdzH8g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="656" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgcs3YJl7JVZl8ArNVuXaY2W7hVbrO8i8gy3hY5I4XM0wuU1r58gFBnFZeMU2YNLnzFl1yCEMs63A8fbFMrvw_IqnBsxHNzyz1cUEjIGG8uveNlYau_PIniO33Tj__B3tQmRLN0spAxQKVYtxoasjdIdrKpF69HhfQbu8wPupv5RCnW4W76wcANGIdzH8g=w407-h333" width="407" /></a></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj9kC1vlbW9v2_12GzF9ES-zD614izyi9-EsLkw4aKHXvo1ortuv0oqMIZuXXli2qh97mfrKWTiuEJJpKRK7gUteTNc2EvPcLo_0_AimBKWJH0UVcTdVzNTES6pW6T8VM2N6n0TQvG-ae1hjesigMaJHOsstqMfSCcBlsOAv3AkPk7zcfipdCJYdeP_lY"><br /></a></div></div>In this article, it is written that airtrunk, a data centre operator has rented the whole building at 2.5m HKD per month. With a lease of 15 years. The rental price represents a premium of 50% over the current leasing arrangements of multiple tenants.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhNo0Hm2JQIoijzeVk4BE-8P2Jo1D3GAvqSB84z3lUaZoC5N-LB6s4PzFWEcq-2p28AAt3JmUeo1ZV4-ugMZ2yntrnJ6kK2at6Qyrj7xHJ25ePmyMBCe3ADe19PzbIuHfxQrCGAk4hHQG_-bKTANEQE3XibdxokJdhEacTUerd7q10wEEj5L2WnEnE92Fc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="125" data-original-width="630" height="96" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhNo0Hm2JQIoijzeVk4BE-8P2Jo1D3GAvqSB84z3lUaZoC5N-LB6s4PzFWEcq-2p28AAt3JmUeo1ZV4-ugMZ2yntrnJ6kK2at6Qyrj7xHJ25ePmyMBCe3ADe19PzbIuHfxQrCGAk4hHQG_-bKTANEQE3XibdxokJdhEacTUerd7q10wEEj5L2WnEnE92Fc=w488-h96" width="488" /></a></div>In this table, you can observe that the companies beer brewing business is really a joke from 2016-2020 as it is unprofitable. It has relied on its rental profit which has been increasing steadily since 2016 as well. <p></p><p>With this new leasing arrangement in place, it should pave the way for a further increase in 2023/2024 minimally.<br /><br /></p><p>4)<b> Improving International Operations Margins of San Miguel Brewery</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhA-Nek6tVk1xzY-2nMlS_k6380wYkcX-VhpQceeSVKtS56zSvy6I7lQG6v1Nv5mJyD1PObxlU4c04FJWA3liYS0KBSD8C8Rw6wOnh1z1IFU98K8gv0AItvqDQuoJIeNAUsZeOE0lN8lPC27T3CbHfM0h1fMG3G_0JW6t5aLthiNC3O4VZNsfFqjENJCIU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="398" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhA-Nek6tVk1xzY-2nMlS_k6380wYkcX-VhpQceeSVKtS56zSvy6I7lQG6v1Nv5mJyD1PObxlU4c04FJWA3liYS0KBSD8C8Rw6wOnh1z1IFU98K8gv0AItvqDQuoJIeNAUsZeOE0lN8lPC27T3CbHfM0h1fMG3G_0JW6t5aLthiNC3O4VZNsfFqjENJCIU" width="301" /></a></div><br />From 2020 onwards, operating margins have generally improved and net income / operating income has followed suit as well. 2023 will likely have best margins since 2020 and therefore the improvement in margins could be a sign of better cost control.<p></p><p>This is definitely laudable.</p><p><u>Conclusion</u></p><p>This year marks the 75th year of SMHK. While there are some activities held to celebrate the year, it remains to be seen if there will be any special dividends especially when it is very likely to have a good performance this year.</p><p>Even if in 2H it does not perform as well as 1H, the investment property's rental ability is expected to be strong and the company has enough cash to cover the whole liabilities while having an investment property that covers its current market cap.</p><p>With everything mentioned above, i feel that it <b>deserves a place in my portfolio. </b></p><p>However, the 'cap' on exports still lingers in my mind as it might have cap how high the profits can be in 2H 2023. On hindsight, i might be overly harsh for a 3.70 PE stock that has enough cash and deep value asset........</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-66622666090222222832023-11-30T18:28:00.000-08:002023-11-30T18:28:41.232-08:00(November 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6TBI6encbKbjyoFTBItHlIEOaO3YF_OmisWKq-RO9SGtrMVcYChnzW3AmgaqagAs7noH3qvaWgSR7niVJO9TbvOXGmoAjHrRneskuXxcxFV72Twjsthg4sWcHAWb3VJQZkee7dhGKmaXNiFohmABjJLYZuD-Jjxl9bNOPJpacorZIvt0VnOlApWWvZRk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="485" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6TBI6encbKbjyoFTBItHlIEOaO3YF_OmisWKq-RO9SGtrMVcYChnzW3AmgaqagAs7noH3qvaWgSR7niVJO9TbvOXGmoAjHrRneskuXxcxFV72Twjsthg4sWcHAWb3VJQZkee7dhGKmaXNiFohmABjJLYZuD-Jjxl9bNOPJpacorZIvt0VnOlApWWvZRk=w425-h335" width="425" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>November 2023 R</b><b>eturns: 2.75%</b></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 21.92%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 73.39%</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">A small increase in returns brings the year to date returns to 21.92%.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">With 1 month to go to end of year, lets see how the portfolio fares.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Results Release and Company 3Q Updates have come through for certain companies in November 2023</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Powermatic Data - The best of the lot. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">UMS - Dividend Increase a pleasant surprise while revenue continues to be lower year on year due to semiconductor slowdown which is expected. 3Q 2023 has outperformed 2Q 2023 in terms of profit but as this is due to change of inventories, it might not be worth any cheers. Overall a poor year for semiconductor puts this stock at a valuation of around 8-9 sgd eps which is 14-16 PE.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">It is a fair price to pay only if earnings does not fall any lower for the next 2 years as we are trading near year highs.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">TC Auto - 3Q figures look similar to 1H figures which indicates bad. Apart from that i have nothing good to mention other than waiting for a rebound in sales in BMW if there ever it would be as the sales growth this year has been largely seen in new energy vehicles instead.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">China Sunsine - An ouch moment but expected as the downturn continues. 3Q 2023 Net Profit of 65m is pretty bad considering 1H was 194.6m</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">Centurion - I still have not seen any indications that the revenue has peaked. This is echoed by management '</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;">full impact on rental revenue growth expected to emerge progressively over the coming months, as 1-year
tenant leases expire and are renewed at prevailing higher rental rates'</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;">Meanwhile student accomodation has seen revenue around same levels as 1H 2023 /2 .</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-46909956020179648902023-11-05T03:23:00.002-08:002023-11-05T03:23:10.704-08:00Predicting and Previewing Ossia International 1H 2023 Results (O08.SI)<p>Had nothing much to do for a sunday (finally) and decided to revisit a friend that has brought up some profits this year to see if more profits can be made.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDth2QHV4sUzCp34EsKPM5oQwBCxPcxUAkgvdsJYO-8dMvyGSkVA2QnFHBw-kGUe2fIJgvuUaZXtHVs3O1awoazS1203s4eueMEj2cvAqmPHF459hlIJmdrHmZpJ0fpiSa74r7sQ2f9jfVGIeGWOp-j26yGQGRJMOzSvOB2FYxCpkm-kqKuXSK3RKBk-M" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDth2QHV4sUzCp34EsKPM5oQwBCxPcxUAkgvdsJYO-8dMvyGSkVA2QnFHBw-kGUe2fIJgvuUaZXtHVs3O1awoazS1203s4eueMEj2cvAqmPHF459hlIJmdrHmZpJ0fpiSa74r7sQ2f9jfVGIeGWOp-j26yGQGRJMOzSvOB2FYxCpkm-kqKuXSK3RKBk-M=w305-h305" width="305" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>Ossia International is poised to release its half year results in November.</p><p>Once again for folks who are unsure what this company is about, i have wrote about it in a <a href="https://zzxbzzinvesting.blogspot.com/2023/04/deep-dive-analysis-on-sg-micro-cap.html">previous post</a></p><p><br /></p><p><u>Taiwan Retail </u></p><p>Looking at its closest competitor , Munsin, it has performed well from April 2023 to September 2023</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrhvlJKpAaDl4K28UR1g3xOpCKyUpVNCYBgJ_FT2phi1WtOhTV-A5-y7ppW_rUrHwwcU41-0wOR18ZSi51Aclor1iQJ2O0i02Dq7F4h_ucg2CIEHLn52kTna3aLvdhbCTgZ0lgw5vjJkFWU4aq4rraUKSLeNyZ_XMvumyfNNsm4jYo1rppjUxDDA6dBa8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="992" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrhvlJKpAaDl4K28UR1g3xOpCKyUpVNCYBgJ_FT2phi1WtOhTV-A5-y7ppW_rUrHwwcU41-0wOR18ZSi51Aclor1iQJ2O0i02Dq7F4h_ucg2CIEHLn52kTna3aLvdhbCTgZ0lgw5vjJkFWU4aq4rraUKSLeNyZ_XMvumyfNNsm4jYo1rppjUxDDA6dBa8=w575-h286" width="575" /></a></div><p>A rough calculation puts revenue at a 21% gain. As such, while the correlation is not high, it operates in the same space as Taiwan Retail Segment of Ossia. </p><p>If i were to take a look at the departmental store business in taiwan, it has been doing well as well</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtU-b3wz5zsk_OJ9YyhIQcR4oXHOy2LQkRAJ4ZvZq19Vsq7KY2zoalLPjIOVwOLTFk0tQn2yo0uU7Kf8s3MbQBbxe0JUGUj6GR5t7QIb29Ryk-gXvGj2NG9DoF0-tjsoGZh5UJPBwKsO7NB3Bk0-URasAghdrsrAVJeg8tY3t9HgRd0qxFCrreIMJhXU8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="742" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtU-b3wz5zsk_OJ9YyhIQcR4oXHOy2LQkRAJ4ZvZq19Vsq7KY2zoalLPjIOVwOLTFk0tQn2yo0uU7Kf8s3MbQBbxe0JUGUj6GR5t7QIb29Ryk-gXvGj2NG9DoF0-tjsoGZh5UJPBwKsO7NB3Bk0-URasAghdrsrAVJeg8tY3t9HgRd0qxFCrreIMJhXU8=w419-h359" width="419" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhsGHbJyzxpIIYEGXnpCWJNtn89UE7UFptPZ44MWYUKKXrimH90XqrUv1GxaLrnSqmTBWP2WZ9ngZVz4TmjN3ElOvC2xqw7iGx3cqH_YV1BhVIkCFTLtZr0b3D4uzZ7deRcvjT54tWobk-c0fsawfn712mBQN57DK5tLr-749JrSmYEWpXi4ekYIa60kEw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="235" data-original-width="728" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhsGHbJyzxpIIYEGXnpCWJNtn89UE7UFptPZ44MWYUKKXrimH90XqrUv1GxaLrnSqmTBWP2WZ9ngZVz4TmjN3ElOvC2xqw7iGx3cqH_YV1BhVIkCFTLtZr0b3D4uzZ7deRcvjT54tWobk-c0fsawfn712mBQN57DK5tLr-749JrSmYEWpXi4ekYIa60kEw=w422-h136" width="422" /></a></div><br />Once again, a common knowledge that the highest revenue generating departmental store is in tai zhong and not taipei as tai zhong is where a lot of the wealthy (semi conductor related industries) reside.<p></p><p>2 outlets have been opened as well from April to Sept. Columbia in Lalaport Taizhong and Kangol in Tainan.</p><p>As a whole, 1H 2023 is usually a lull period for Ossia's Taiwan Retail as the weather gets hotter and people have lesser need for cold wear but looking at the growth in departmental store and Munsin, there are some hopes that revenue can improve and a turnaround can be achieved.</p><p><u>Harvey Norman Operations</u></p><p>This is where it gets tricky. But that is investing and its fun when its tricky and unpredictable. If it is predictable then its really boring.</p><p>Looking at Harvey Norman's Revenue Update</p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgRXj1hA0XEZFEniCejhmPrJ-wTxC1vJ6IePc3UBNcslwy5gUADlWsJmY8DNHeWInQoYhqy892yBXc24OnJOeICF_7UZzn15KXgQAxcLUF6meNuQlR9WBd-IBcid44O0xMknTRSdq22hN2lEbY3XNkVmyIZOf3oEC2jTi4RkI3LgjDckIMc7B1c0_v329k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="104" data-original-width="547" height="103" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgRXj1hA0XEZFEniCejhmPrJ-wTxC1vJ6IePc3UBNcslwy5gUADlWsJmY8DNHeWInQoYhqy892yBXc24OnJOeICF_7UZzn15KXgQAxcLUF6meNuQlR9WBd-IBcid44O0xMknTRSdq22hN2lEbY3XNkVmyIZOf3oEC2jTi4RkI3LgjDckIMc7B1c0_v329k=w544-h103" width="544" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
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</table><br />We are interested in knowing from April to Sep 2023 how it has went. We know that there is only a modest 1% fall from July to Sep 2023. Considering the slow retail landscape, i will take this result all day every day.<div><br /></div><div>Could we actually record a positive sales from April 2023 to June 2023? Looking at the statistics, it is highly likely. At least we should be glad that a larger decrease is seen in January which has already been reflected in Ossia's past result.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, the profit contribution portion is the bigger worry</div><div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQ79P5dlOTK-apdMU79863vUGvuS614Qoyn7jkCeSONPz84kfS5RMx1aivtw-4a7Ha5YoArwZeb-VKRzCSXdci850cLbKncUTeR1F0MlVNdiwMzhVfQXxfmyiOPs99kQyho2fWYP0D3Mb2jt52l9Ly4hNR36gZnjws8go7-YnkcIfTFYnHwBzEYww2ljM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="64" data-original-width="607" height="44" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQ79P5dlOTK-apdMU79863vUGvuS614Qoyn7jkCeSONPz84kfS5RMx1aivtw-4a7Ha5YoArwZeb-VKRzCSXdci850cLbKncUTeR1F0MlVNdiwMzhVfQXxfmyiOPs99kQyho2fWYP0D3Mb2jt52l9Ly4hNR36gZnjws8go7-YnkcIfTFYnHwBzEYww2ljM" width="417" /></a></div><p>Due to Intercompany Brand License Fees, profit has came in at half of the previous period. There are many questions to ponder. We know it was introduced in 2023 but was it in Jan or in April? How is this fees expensed? </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWqTIZg5UtY8R2ASc7w1wBH7pUpL8c1xl8c_We8p7NJSEDO92yUwAoAXCAlL4n7vURRAxyUJqD1szxa9q50pqB22pKQT68RckAZW4IpNKmnjPPSKZTpc_8C_jwK0cFrL-prCpzAjc5M4D1uQsJ9Rq_NdrR9HbPogFV3Yobi6kHH65PnILIJ9HEpaKTy5g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="344" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWqTIZg5UtY8R2ASc7w1wBH7pUpL8c1xl8c_We8p7NJSEDO92yUwAoAXCAlL4n7vURRAxyUJqD1szxa9q50pqB22pKQT68RckAZW4IpNKmnjPPSKZTpc_8C_jwK0cFrL-prCpzAjc5M4D1uQsJ9Rq_NdrR9HbPogFV3Yobi6kHH65PnILIJ9HEpaKTy5g=w302-h366" width="302" /></a></div><br />In any sense, i feel this big drop in profit might affect the profitability. We will get a real 100% feel of it when Ossia releases its results. <p></p><p>After all, in its 6 months results from Oct 22 to Mar 23, there are only 3 months of 2023 and in the 3 months of 2022 there was 6% growth in revenue in the SG and MY sales but profit actually increased 4.5% in the 6 months.</p><p><u>Conclusion</u></p><p>Digging deeper, we found the reason for a weaker SG and MY profit contribution that might be a big worry for Ossia. Fortunately, the business's sales have held up quite well and operationally they are fine its just an internal charging via increase in branding fees. I might have been tempted to consider adding if the profits was 24.44 million instead of 13.1 million. </p><p>As of what i have seen, the answer is an easy no. Considering the 1.8 cents of dividend paid out this year, the current price of 0.149 still puts it at a relatively high position this year. I am afraid that the 6 months of brand licensing fees might put profitability under higher pressure and this would be a new norm going forward.</p><p><b>A profit reduction in the associate of anything less than 40% would be a great joy to behold.</b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>Though if i actually get it right that associate profit fell by over 40%.....it would be really wtf.</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><br /><br /><p></p></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-34336886665727580952023-10-31T05:30:00.000-07:002023-10-31T05:30:09.669-07:00(October 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgarPHaoNg3aJXKf0qeG0cd0NsqRhUi72LCOF8WkDXoyEzOVK38ikRL8gYhAoRCCQr0VDyBDGTtK16KNRvV9SQE8mAryr6kSShBW1GU-2f0qy0jgxVOuVfwClvnGeotVoggXkNxJtdBM-7LW0cQN5L5PA6jctBj8JEURPDLU1ujbKu3CFJgHKFWoCs8D6c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="473" height="403" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgarPHaoNg3aJXKf0qeG0cd0NsqRhUi72LCOF8WkDXoyEzOVK38ikRL8gYhAoRCCQr0VDyBDGTtK16KNRvV9SQE8mAryr6kSShBW1GU-2f0qy0jgxVOuVfwClvnGeotVoggXkNxJtdBM-7LW0cQN5L5PA6jctBj8JEURPDLU1ujbKu3CFJgHKFWoCs8D6c=w497-h403" width="497" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>October 2023 R</b><b>eturns: -2.05%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 18.66%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 68.76%</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">A small drop in October which is in line with the movements of major markets. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Will await results of Powermatic in November as well as Centurion 3Q Update.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-3091884361649111212023-10-28T03:15:00.002-07:002023-10-28T03:15:43.153-07:00Recent Actions<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUXl7iRcC8V63mVhYn9Am8ef7O-aym1-FJ8Mwqr-WR2Lcd_EKfg2rT4RX-gSxMC8RbEK8O_gnv8wbPxbQGmbClxw0G3NXHASiixETqf2i6W534P7UwTWjdlQFPUB0jmwG4uD8mFB_cZgK1IpY1SMtufiEQZ6r7y1UdxP866JsthXiG_AuRBFk7Va3ItMM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUXl7iRcC8V63mVhYn9Am8ef7O-aym1-FJ8Mwqr-WR2Lcd_EKfg2rT4RX-gSxMC8RbEK8O_gnv8wbPxbQGmbClxw0G3NXHASiixETqf2i6W534P7UwTWjdlQFPUB0jmwG4uD8mFB_cZgK1IpY1SMtufiEQZ6r7y1UdxP866JsthXiG_AuRBFk7Va3ItMM=w381-h215" width="381" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(The Song Name probably describes the mood currently for stocks in general)</div><p></p><p><br /></p><p>Recently i have not been doing much actually. Just really 2 short term plays. Hand got itchy and decided to do some stuff. I am not done yet with the itch, there should be a few more things to be done in Late Oct or in November depending on the upcoming trends that i observe. As there would be many companies reporting 3Q Results.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>1) Rebought into AV Concept (Hkex: 595)</b> </p><p>After i bought it, it went down a good 20% so i bought again. Literally Underwater yup.</p><p>The thesis for buying it is pretty simple, i saw a rebound in revenue in a firm (Co-Asia) that is operating in the same space.</p><p>In the previous few half year results, the revenue increase on a half year rolling basis have been in the same direction. As such, whenever Co-Asia has performed negatively, AV Concept's JV Arm would follow suit and vice versa.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>As such, observing an increase of 14% yoy and 57% on a half year rolling basis, i have decided to move in for some short term punting.<br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi61g-s3Xic_-0qUWizBdyji0ebKaULjCgHkGtGVEYz-NCPwk3wAcjotcKZwlZMdx_YJJkEkzCcKng420e_-ZxXcCl3nui2-AKj4Dbz9v6NAc337Mxu2d5vFWVyiJrFdh0Lt2RBIpOwGc9WqprReO6HSk3vC2kiIh4TG-_HcmKIKm3zxCXLC2Loi74bHEc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="658" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi61g-s3Xic_-0qUWizBdyji0ebKaULjCgHkGtGVEYz-NCPwk3wAcjotcKZwlZMdx_YJJkEkzCcKng420e_-ZxXcCl3nui2-AKj4Dbz9v6NAc337Mxu2d5vFWVyiJrFdh0Lt2RBIpOwGc9WqprReO6HSk3vC2kiIh4TG-_HcmKIKm3zxCXLC2Loi74bHEc=w445-h284" width="445" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>AVPEL Group’s main customers are China’s major mobile phone manufacturers and component suppliers.</p><p>Also in a <a href="https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/china-smartphone-sales-q3-2023/#:~:text=In%20Q3%202023%2C%20smartphone%20sales,by%20its%20SoC%20Kirin%209000S.">smartphone report in China</a>, Huawei has gained grounds while Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022 is only a drop of 3%. As such, results should at least be better than the same timeframe last year.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6ICJkfPC0wczsOsi9SrcPzEDWJGm7aehh1rw43OhlBfpQc1HNcq3VsHbaraJXYW3iYSsEDFSmwoDCuBYgfCpxx-zKtJGD7Aki0tU0AUCTfFYOhnhGg_gLh6LjKvdu_C6NJfn8vy8z1zsFtVvCc1npRqTq2MQBg8jvMjin04tSHCPaZHsErYueZWf4JE0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="1532" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6ICJkfPC0wczsOsi9SrcPzEDWJGm7aehh1rw43OhlBfpQc1HNcq3VsHbaraJXYW3iYSsEDFSmwoDCuBYgfCpxx-zKtJGD7Aki0tU0AUCTfFYOhnhGg_gLh6LjKvdu_C6NJfn8vy8z1zsFtVvCc1npRqTq2MQBg8jvMjin04tSHCPaZHsErYueZWf4JE0=w561-h277" width="561" /></a></div><br />After all, it is a punt and the risk are there that things will go wrong. As such, it will be short term and i will cap the exposure.<p></p><p><br /></p><p><b>2) Sheffield Green Ltd IPO Application </b></p><p>As per my previous post, i think this is an IPO to try and see how it goes. I am not really inclined to hold long even though the revenue growth trend and prospect looks good. In fact, after seeing Niks Professional close 13% down for the day from its IPO Price, i am pretty sure Sheffield Green has more chance of doing badly compared to doing well.</p><p>I am actually surprised with the number of public applicants. I guess any company that wants to list and saw the number of public applicants in 2023 will be shocked.</p><p>It has been a really sorry state of SGX IPO this year. Finally we have 2 public tranches in 2023 and we get really joker results.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh2OVzDAPLmB_zKcNzIIx1wqVRYidjOgnYASJUC5C13rIxnN54BO-UhnomfFU2YA2fn8VW40ZcVHn4mL2FQLha9SC6xXdF8TjRMwEwtGG0Fi-VAYuyaazUv0mpe3957uebX3lyp8Fp9ZGtWnisA7ffDcWfR9Kza87V9UgAPeCDorUd811W1Ifn9RTUo7PQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="284" data-original-width="478" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh2OVzDAPLmB_zKcNzIIx1wqVRYidjOgnYASJUC5C13rIxnN54BO-UhnomfFU2YA2fn8VW40ZcVHn4mL2FQLha9SC6xXdF8TjRMwEwtGG0Fi-VAYuyaazUv0mpe3957uebX3lyp8Fp9ZGtWnisA7ffDcWfR9Kza87V9UgAPeCDorUd811W1Ifn9RTUo7PQ" width="420" /></a></div><p></p><p>When i see a figure like this, i wonder how SGX can position themselves to get more IPOs as well as let IPOs prosper so that the market is vibrant. But as anyone who read the SGX Results will know, they rely more on derivatives and IPO contributes a small portion of revenue.</p><p>I guess the heydays of IPO in Singapore are long gone. I am just ranting cause i believe monday sheffield will open underwater lol.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-81016994942438689172023-10-16T12:02:00.001-07:002023-10-16T12:02:47.804-07:00Thoughts on Sheffield Green Ltd (Latest SGX IPO) <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhKmIX-HPoOIzMUCq0YRCfPbZ8Ky_hBKor8MwLsdtDIqPlIrPj1CVASJdnf0mzNGutsQkVV8lACw3K-oPRwTo9jHooINlDMnDoz0Gs8TL6eEF8OLDnrT_nbFGEz-0h2-CDD4ddaG670_1uGWDLM8DNkfYTtQ_lvevI4z-uqYCCoc5XALCbkwbeubGGhiFw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="400" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhKmIX-HPoOIzMUCq0YRCfPbZ8Ky_hBKor8MwLsdtDIqPlIrPj1CVASJdnf0mzNGutsQkVV8lACw3K-oPRwTo9jHooINlDMnDoz0Gs8TL6eEF8OLDnrT_nbFGEz-0h2-CDD4ddaG670_1uGWDLM8DNkfYTtQ_lvevI4z-uqYCCoc5XALCbkwbeubGGhiFw=w377-h189" width="377" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Sheffield Green Limited will be looking to raise $6 million via the Catalist board. With an aim to IPO on 30 October 2023.</p><p><u>Introduction</u></p><p>IPO Closing Date: 26 October 12pm</p><p>IPO Price Per Share: $0.25</p><p>Public and Placement Tranche: 3.6 million Public and 20.4 million Placement</p><p>Implied Market Cap: $46.6 million</p><p>Nature of Business: Human Resource Service for Renewable Energy Sector</p><p>Company Net Profit: 2.4 million USD for 1st 9 months of FY 2023. (FY is from July to June)</p><p>Assuming a 3.2 million USD Profit. This translates to an implied PE of 10.6</p><p><u>What i dislike about the company</u></p><p>1) <b>CFO Credentials</b></p><p>It is fair to say that this is a new CFO that has just joined in November 2022. However, he does not have a very ideal portfolio. <span> </span></p><p><span>He was executive director for CW Group Holdings Limited from 2008 to 2018 (The company went bankrupt in 2020)</span></p><p><span>He was also CFO for Zheng Li Holdings from Jan 2016 to May 2019. While things were ok when he left, the company has went from 1.35 hkd in May 2019 to 0.11 HKD in Oct 2023.</span></p><p><span>It just feels like getting him is for the listing of the company. To be fair, CW Group Holdings has done decent while he was there. But it is just eerie things go bad after he left.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyI9WDJhWW0vFPtHPu6k0Nxvt_zQGy78u8P6Kposinz8mVpP2u5qYWDP8H26DIjhxzDO7JfncsxQrj21mO_XjloG_XUE6g00D7ODSDWuxio-ZPJoiBOmDvVTn_C8qbLy8zTD7FnqrzXlEBKeHfV3X9P6rRHIQl2KBWcl1qDcGNVeSmLoOnMD7n1J8zXFc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="672" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyI9WDJhWW0vFPtHPu6k0Nxvt_zQGy78u8P6Kposinz8mVpP2u5qYWDP8H26DIjhxzDO7JfncsxQrj21mO_XjloG_XUE6g00D7ODSDWuxio-ZPJoiBOmDvVTn_C8qbLy8zTD7FnqrzXlEBKeHfV3X9P6rRHIQl2KBWcl1qDcGNVeSmLoOnMD7n1J8zXFc=w437-h384" width="437" /></a></div><br />2) <b>There is no need to list the company</b><p></p><p><span>With a net profit of possible 3.2m usd or around 4.38 million SGD, there is no need to raise just 1 year + of net income.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqWPKM3TZblJSbU-xWGAumUJ7NzLKKWDBrgvotwd1PuQ_k8l2mJ6C30sX3-lhJ9ugVSLa8ZM46qToPrQg5QdNkoaTpNABdyNourMo95PPffq5feeABOiRu-CzVR28JrjCLndDvOllYv2rWq0s_Xl-hjjc-G7AF55BFwbyxu1ehjwjQm_c83w0S6quu3UY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="861" data-original-width="654" height="533" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqWPKM3TZblJSbU-xWGAumUJ7NzLKKWDBrgvotwd1PuQ_k8l2mJ6C30sX3-lhJ9ugVSLa8ZM46qToPrQg5QdNkoaTpNABdyNourMo95PPffq5feeABOiRu-CzVR28JrjCLndDvOllYv2rWq0s_Xl-hjjc-G7AF55BFwbyxu1ehjwjQm_c83w0S6quu3UY=w404-h533" width="404" /></a></div><br />Looking at the balance sheet, the revenue recorded from June 2022 to March 2023 was 19 million. As such, i would not be too concerned with the receivable increase as i think that they have kept it well.<p></p><p><span>As such, it does not look like a balance sheet that needs extra funding to be listed through listing.</span></p><p>3) <b>Key Man Risk</b></p><p><span>Kee Boo Chye is the CEO and i think whatever success is really due to his efforts. Having been in the oil and gas, marine industry since 2000 and doing </span>manpower supply and human resource services
business.</p><p>Moving into Taiwan in 2018 and Japan in 2021. This has definitely born fruits finally as the profits have come in. </p><p>Unfortunately, what this means is that are the clients trusting him or his company? After all the company is newly established in 2021.</p><p><span>The key counter-argument is that he will still be the major shareholder with 72.88% of shares after IPO.</span></p><p><span><u>What i like about the company</u></span></p><p>1) <b>Good Margins</b></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkp3QAbAdQ6bFmaxgW3oDDyuwR7BkbA3C9h0E9gylMzBaO2gtw5KEdRlnljN67bYSVPJETx6hv5BqPW8Rtl9C_3afcNpgYKswznrUr--e6T_wwDHNz7ake1_JDkE6KZTPljKkt0pXI3pNFUZMkSO1vRBWLrGp0cGuBYS6uLWu8ojflvow1hpejjrKYQqg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="647" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkp3QAbAdQ6bFmaxgW3oDDyuwR7BkbA3C9h0E9gylMzBaO2gtw5KEdRlnljN67bYSVPJETx6hv5BqPW8Rtl9C_3afcNpgYKswznrUr--e6T_wwDHNz7ake1_JDkE6KZTPljKkt0pXI3pNFUZMkSO1vRBWLrGp0cGuBYS6uLWu8ojflvow1hpejjrKYQqg=w508-h306" width="508" /></a></div><br />The company's gross margins have jumped leaps and bounds with the increase in revenue. It seems like it is able to reap some economies of scale in this aspect.<p></p><p><span>Profit Before Tax Margin of 17.4% and Gross Profit Margin of 27.6% is incredible when considering the large increase in revenue and it shows that the company might not have hit the ceiling yet in terms of profitability increase.</span></p><p>2) <b>Easy to understand industry exposure</b></p><p><span>As long as demand for renewable energy increase in Taiwan, there will be an increased demand for construction of various facilities and as such there will be a need to continue requiring staff as well as more staff and the company will benefit from such tail winds.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifVr5hnqm1_3-Mh7nBqJtMr16MbnoSYpVc0WNm1O-HFZcy4nF3InSV_C0FEaKDL7v-xIJPlH2LLVXckBXEFlzO8QK3DFWUzbxWJkMquvWo0Vd8Jp20IbguQIEcUjcNj60rB_BRLMSmtnLsmuAacdWba287djXsFFl8wkepYeifNrULyMfMCEz8U-QL9Xg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1650" data-original-width="1600" height="515" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifVr5hnqm1_3-Mh7nBqJtMr16MbnoSYpVc0WNm1O-HFZcy4nF3InSV_C0FEaKDL7v-xIJPlH2LLVXckBXEFlzO8QK3DFWUzbxWJkMquvWo0Vd8Jp20IbguQIEcUjcNj60rB_BRLMSmtnLsmuAacdWba287djXsFFl8wkepYeifNrULyMfMCEz8U-QL9Xg=w500-h515" width="500" /></a></div><br />If we look at this picture, we can tell that there is still some massive potential and catching up to do if Taiwan (the main market of the company) wants to hit their targets. As such, they might need more of the services by the company.<p></p><p>3) <b>Revenue Visibility</b></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1TVIdkRGoiITOHP7swATOKprq9ihbBSI3jDWrytO9Lv0iwn2HkTbzfwrgAd66ecwmNeTWiTBkL4atE6HZCBbosptTe06gqOkn3rkFcoP37kbst_m4r1IbELEarrHMCcCZNftd-GTAFIvjIJgoYQ1qYwFqBo4QRZTHskQjchBuC7S5aOvHlvdx7F4OTJY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="113" data-original-width="608" height="91" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1TVIdkRGoiITOHP7swATOKprq9ihbBSI3jDWrytO9Lv0iwn2HkTbzfwrgAd66ecwmNeTWiTBkL4atE6HZCBbosptTe06gqOkn3rkFcoP37kbst_m4r1IbELEarrHMCcCZNftd-GTAFIvjIJgoYQ1qYwFqBo4QRZTHskQjchBuC7S5aOvHlvdx7F4OTJY" width="488" /></a></div><br />I can only infer that it means that the last quarter of FY 2023 should have at <i><b>least 6.5 million</b></i> and that would be good as the 1st 9 months revenue contribution was 19 million.<div><br /></div><div><p></p><p><span><u>The food for thought</u></span></p><p>1) <b>Customer Concentration</b></p><p><span>2 Customers stood around 72% of the company's revenue. While it is tough to tell who the customers are and whether they will continue to use their services, it is revealed that one does steel manufacturing / offshore wind farm construction while the other customer does coasting solutions for the marine, offshore and industrial sector in Taiwan.</span></p><p><span>As such, i am not really sure how much the company really benefits from the renewable energy boom in Taiwan as it seems like not all customers are from the same industry</span></p><p>2) <b>Number of Staff currently</b></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmJmL5NcgBiFSZgDFPP7bNq_vzxdv44CV5QYl9iMs64e7U9PwcS7xwch-nRr0_AiJLkYCOgCacsGJ6oeLKIplPTp9rteuFiChB4yvhCKrl8e78oIm55FBh5mlNUmdnXcDBEFv2Jq4JE-OuQJnvBnuGgmWKt3XgDqFJHysfs0zi0M0bGWHe_tc6P1ZYvDU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="663" data-original-width="632" height="423" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmJmL5NcgBiFSZgDFPP7bNq_vzxdv44CV5QYl9iMs64e7U9PwcS7xwch-nRr0_AiJLkYCOgCacsGJ6oeLKIplPTp9rteuFiChB4yvhCKrl8e78oIm55FBh5mlNUmdnXcDBEFv2Jq4JE-OuQJnvBnuGgmWKt3XgDqFJHysfs0zi0M0bGWHe_tc6P1ZYvDU=w404-h423" width="404" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh33oWtDck0gsxzXBKkvEnEXQRhCCD-9Sq9nYDnE8BIrGYr5PCEdUyg0SwBTCORkwyL8UTJN89zM_7IdcONQ0npiy9GsLyuTz1ELyVKLL7HLn3gwqCfYJ_NpqScJ00kwaSGQf_sMCaPRPENuC2wF1ZoPOVCQeIrX3GgMFsEEmiJXDq33DN9KFe3MEWPInk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="640" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh33oWtDck0gsxzXBKkvEnEXQRhCCD-9Sq9nYDnE8BIrGYr5PCEdUyg0SwBTCORkwyL8UTJN89zM_7IdcONQ0npiy9GsLyuTz1ELyVKLL7HLn3gwqCfYJ_NpqScJ00kwaSGQf_sMCaPRPENuC2wF1ZoPOVCQeIrX3GgMFsEEmiJXDq33DN9KFe3MEWPInk=w422-h292" width="422" /></a></div>Looking at this, what i think is that the number has peaked after 31 March and from 31 March to 15 September, it has reduced from 777 to 583.<p></p><p><span>What this means is that revenue for FY 2024 might not be as high as FY 2023 for now. But we still have to consider that it is a large increase in FY 2022 to FP 2023 hence we are not sure how long the higher numbers of 818 have been maintained.</span></p><p><span><u>Concluding</u></span></p><p><span>The company has plans to set up a JV in US and capture revenue in Japan , France , Denmark and Poland.</span></p><p><span>Looking at how it took them some time to set up a footing in Taiwan, i would probably say it would take some time for them to capture similar success in other countries as well and it would be a very long term project. </span></p><p><span>As this is a 'blue collar worker' focused company, i am not keen to call it a head-hunter company.</span></p><p>Looking at the <a href="https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/e50b5c34/global-offshore-wind-taiwan">Taiwan Offshore Energy Projects</a>, it seems like there are quite some pipeline in the works and the expansion of wind energy is on the minds of the government.</p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgiLDpnojpPJd6gFeSQmQUTMkNfzcFPFtPd3nETC0EkOhu_snVG-cRrQ8k67x5AUXdrGCaBO1XoRHgmwL-R6zuBkhEjO9griXvn3xAU0pfHwuzuCNMuKZW7lgJC2HEoaps0TaUO7h3xEL5n3BMEv1t6VGkmRft1S2-eWcN73Vl5db8pGwGv7-7c6-3h3l0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgiLDpnojpPJd6gFeSQmQUTMkNfzcFPFtPd3nETC0EkOhu_snVG-cRrQ8k67x5AUXdrGCaBO1XoRHgmwL-R6zuBkhEjO9griXvn3xAU0pfHwuzuCNMuKZW7lgJC2HEoaps0TaUO7h3xEL5n3BMEv1t6VGkmRft1S2-eWcN73Vl5db8pGwGv7-7c6-3h3l0=w447-h336" width="447" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQZjrc8uJEDxx7TEJxoELPfys-RPkD_gqSqszPMvuTdfYdWWAsrYvnBI_fwl5wstr21rfDDN3SRGqiMmmHiIL7shw3fpajDLnUjqDDxEfeWP0yquT1ZF_juE-_1fZCylzz_TbwPZCpe3JGbZqK2RT-Q7p83lXZE4VTopZo_Lu2956C11iZtnNruTpncAg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQZjrc8uJEDxx7TEJxoELPfys-RPkD_gqSqszPMvuTdfYdWWAsrYvnBI_fwl5wstr21rfDDN3SRGqiMmmHiIL7shw3fpajDLnUjqDDxEfeWP0yquT1ZF_juE-_1fZCylzz_TbwPZCpe3JGbZqK2RT-Q7p83lXZE4VTopZo_Lu2956C11iZtnNruTpncAg=w445-h334" width="445" /></a></div><br />Whether the company can capture the tailwinds of these offshore projects will be another question altogether.<br /><br /><p></p><p><span><u>Verdict</u></span></p><p>Potential of Growth: 5/5 (Taiwan is expanding offshore wind power projects)</p><p>Earnings Visibility: 1/5 (It is hard to tell if the company is doing well or not apart from macro trends of various country and their usage of specific renewable energy)</p><p>Valuation: 2/5 (Given that risk free rate is high now and this is not trading below 10 PE while HRnet is around 11 PE)</p><p>Conviction to List: 2/5 (Given that they are doing well and balance sheet is healthy)</p><p>Finishing the FY Well: 4/5 (I believe they will do well not considering the listing expenses)</p><p><b>Overall: 14/25 (Hit and Run on IPO Day or Sell on Result Release Day)</b></p><p>I think the current climate does not warrant for any long term holding of any small ipo as the required return is very high at the moment. Looking at how small caps seems to have little interest in the SGX, the expected return should be much higher.</p><p>However, looking at the improved financials, it could attract a few people to be onboard for this IPO and the renewable energy story in Taiwan is attractive as well. </p><p>Just that it is hard to monitor how well this company is doing as its customer base has shown that a new customer can stand around 30+% of revenue while a recurring one is also 30+%. Which means that a lot really depends on the execution of the company and in finding new projects / clients.</p></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-14034238307277614472023-09-29T09:53:00.000-07:002023-09-29T09:53:50.119-07:00(September 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjv_COed1sBiZ7aMC-xyu4e9OURiLzNYmhqSkpZHDIlhRESXzyfnh6odXHCRsHWb8AvWJEIpYdodYRrpbWlMU3kpJQqb2jIlPVASLOIlg-s8P5jLFntV31NWSzCCxEosvujZ8Y0VqyAqJHKcK5yLvMbm6G-_2FOSinw2v6fQrX2JhTxIlVkNiZ_ngOnBEk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="487" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjv_COed1sBiZ7aMC-xyu4e9OURiLzNYmhqSkpZHDIlhRESXzyfnh6odXHCRsHWb8AvWJEIpYdodYRrpbWlMU3kpJQqb2jIlPVASLOIlg-s8P5jLFntV31NWSzCCxEosvujZ8Y0VqyAqJHKcK5yLvMbm6G-_2FOSinw2v6fQrX2JhTxIlVkNiZ_ngOnBEk=w459-h360" width="459" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>September 2023 R</b><b>eturns: 1.01%</b></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 21.15%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 72.29%</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Relatively Subdued September with not much happening to the portfolio. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Nothing much to update either. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Will await results of Powermatic in November as well as Centurion 3Q Update.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-72397785380068564702023-08-31T10:34:00.000-07:002023-08-31T10:34:08.404-07:00(August 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn4ARwp4c259EryIyLrTjfYsP821zH2VoS6gYpfvzwA_jVf4YJdWbLbNh6YS5wmC4xMcEWWJCCYcva_O8yK9hj0JCiuEnToo99woUWix8zuzc6Tl3o3HSO7tYTQfPq4a3jpQO_gROVEBedg3BVn4aqugOp_DN38v39qDIJMvvH7MvHEg2a06WhQN0tikM/s474/August.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="474" height="387" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn4ARwp4c259EryIyLrTjfYsP821zH2VoS6gYpfvzwA_jVf4YJdWbLbNh6YS5wmC4xMcEWWJCCYcva_O8yK9hj0JCiuEnToo99woUWix8zuzc6Tl3o3HSO7tYTQfPq4a3jpQO_gROVEBedg3BVn4aqugOp_DN38v39qDIJMvvH7MvHEg2a06WhQN0tikM/w432-h387/August.JPG" width="432" /></a></div></div></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>August 2023 R</b><b>eturns: -6.12%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 19.93%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 70.56%</b></div></div></div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">From July to August, the biggest positive mover in the portfolio would be UMS and Haw Par. </span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">The negative movers would be pretty much the rest with Huationg Global being one of the higher negative returns.</span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">A lot of companies reported results. Some i have mentioned b4 so i will not mention again. I will just pick 1 that is good, 1 that is maybe and 1 that is bad to highlight upon.</span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Good: Haw Par - Interest Income (Possibily from T-bill) came in at 11m or 1/10 of the profit. Higher Dividend Income from UOB as well. Improvement in Tiger Bahm business as revenue rose but gross profit rose even more. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Maybe: Centurion - Rental Revisions have not been fully priced in yet. I still believe that the best is yet to come. Perhaps the only worry is that the result looks bad because finance cost is up. But the margin expansion has been decent (more than revenue increase). As such, any increase in revenue from reversions should be directly to the gross profit hopefully.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Bad: Tuan Sing - Lower Hospitality EBITDA, Increased Finance cost, IPO in China halted with a view to purchase back previously sold shares. All thesis out of the window.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">With that, i have decided to finally shuffle the cards in the portfolio. Probably the last? shuffle of the year.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCNYTv-b6bN_3LQihfftXJR2yDf2N7pB1mWb-TQou1EoLHTmtqDg-FIb2uQOw0Qc5KrxtFhrrOWzJow7LHZq0Fgx0_6j6vmkvI76UOjoB15HHQnp6Avxb2YwqiDfrTg8BmnMEaSHZV0rJSj_ni0Edf261N-FfCnKZrnUPx8K3u-4uu4XqNC5AxXkTKfuM/s471/August%202.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="471" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCNYTv-b6bN_3LQihfftXJR2yDf2N7pB1mWb-TQou1EoLHTmtqDg-FIb2uQOw0Qc5KrxtFhrrOWzJow7LHZq0Fgx0_6j6vmkvI76UOjoB15HHQnp6Avxb2YwqiDfrTg8BmnMEaSHZV0rJSj_ni0Edf261N-FfCnKZrnUPx8K3u-4uu4XqNC5AxXkTKfuM/w442-h359/August%202.JPG" width="442" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>I had a really tough time thinking how to shuffle this time around, it is not difficult with the removals</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Propnex - I believe the good run has come to an end. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">KSH - Reduce Construction Exposure and looking at the China Property Crisis, i am becoming more skeptical of Gaobeidian doing well due to the fall in price as a whole in China. On the construction front, more companies are reporting lower margins. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Tuan Sing - With the ipo potential gone, it is time to switch it out.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Added SUTL, good results , new management contract not sure how it will turn out we will observe but the growth in revenue and the interest income is encouraging</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Added more Powermatic Data - My take from AGM is that the cogs should be slightly lower, longer term we have the property redevelopment theme so all is cool. Cash rich as well.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">Added more Centurion - 2H should see core profits going higher. Interest Expense should have peaked or should not see any significantly higher increase from 1H. Which means bottom-line should finally pick up more pace.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;">I would have wanted to add some Hawpar as well but some how somewhere somewhat i just wanted to gamble a bit more on the others .............we will see how things pan out.</div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></div><p><br /><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-61531495825292568712023-08-29T11:06:00.000-07:002023-08-29T11:06:10.439-07:00Some thoughts on my portfolio<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjo-qNgKrPp4eOtUElkOuqUxh0_kN4TQFMVFDzvU-nsUjx6ZOC0MUU5gV5QD6LBcTmcyY3UWIPmbjx6j-daJ6jHV55tD0efEjGb2bGSyEHyTTZw0jvuqYtrX4ae-u5sAYSjAI9rbITi-jwpxFQwfkwqmVGcf6nRzEsimehOgj9eIEvBU7lgjKDNpXHKmUw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3548" data-original-width="1714" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjo-qNgKrPp4eOtUElkOuqUxh0_kN4TQFMVFDzvU-nsUjx6ZOC0MUU5gV5QD6LBcTmcyY3UWIPmbjx6j-daJ6jHV55tD0efEjGb2bGSyEHyTTZw0jvuqYtrX4ae-u5sAYSjAI9rbITi-jwpxFQwfkwqmVGcf6nRzEsimehOgj9eIEvBU7lgjKDNpXHKmUw=w211-h438" width="211" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(Somewhat accurate depiction when i try to think about the results of the stocks in my portfolio)</div></div><br /><p></p><p>It is coming to the end of August and stocks in my portfolio have reported results. I will give my quick thoughts before giving a more detailed and very boring thought on individual companies.</p><p><b><u>Quick Thoughts</u></b></p><p>Dream International: Overall A-, the 65% profit gain , dividend and margin of plush toys is really an A+. The reason for its A- is that it guided for 65% profit gain in its positive profit announcement and it delivered exactly that (no surprises) and it's plastic figures segment fell slightly more than my expectations.</p><p>Huationg Global: Overall C. I have shared it on my <a href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02r2H29HLqvvDpSKstezvsuHq4MekaM6JPkoc9A4Kgft6AZdiqBFdX729MGuVJgzikl&id=100084734274006">facebook post here</a> . The TLDR version is that margins are all over the place and it has missed my absurdly high expectations.</p><p>Mainland Holdings: Overall B. Despite a profit fall of 23% and EPS fall of 27%, this was within expectations as an interview in May/June 2023 has revealed that performances would be weaker and i was prepared to see a drop in revenue and profit. There are a couple of bright spots in terms of cash flow and some comments with regards to the business operations. All in all a B Grade.</p><p><b><u>Portfolio Thoughts</u></b></p><p>In terms of keeping them on the portfolio, it is a <b>completely different story</b>. I actually am thinking of selling all 3 actually. </p><p>The main reason is opportunity cost. I do not see any of them having any significant rise in share price in the following 6 months. They will unlikely be reporting any results and unless there is significant ownership or coverage, is unlikely to see any appreciation in share price. </p><p>Any meaningful rise in share price will be unlikely this year and perhaps will only be seen if they manage to do well in the 2H 2023.</p><p>But at the same time, a factor that is putting me off is that if i were to do this, i will have to put in some large effort to research companies to put the conviction on, after all this is one of the rare few times in the past few years where certain parts of my research actually was somewhat accurate.</p><p>Which then again, when you do new research into companies, you are usually unsure if your research and estimations / expectations will tally with the results as well as what the market expects.</p><p>Going back to the basics of finance 101.</p><p>1) Dividends are declared by the company,</p><p>2) Profit and Revenue is determined by the operations of the company as well as the demand supply factors affecting the company</p><p>3) Share price is decided by folks who actually want to own these shares.</p><p>I will probably need some time to think about how desperate i want to hit my aim next year and whether these companies can do it or i should try my hands at a new company.</p><p>Detailed Thoughts</p><p><b>1) Mainland Holdings</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiezRhsVOfulVzk3dz-aE2KefE2ss1-MgzVQCr1fSeF4o0rwbfHyyqe7CWCtxNZwR9BFFY9ca3H5yhPGr-901r7MA6icH_wHmh169Zgb5W8gseLkulJEpxyhEwrcTC_7NNtupQ3Tf1_IKFhE6bCPFfb4DRwqzdYOB_B3wyaeKvy14fRe2Vz3Xzt50MDMwI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="879" data-original-width="673" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiezRhsVOfulVzk3dz-aE2KefE2ss1-MgzVQCr1fSeF4o0rwbfHyyqe7CWCtxNZwR9BFFY9ca3H5yhPGr-901r7MA6icH_wHmh169Zgb5W8gseLkulJEpxyhEwrcTC_7NNtupQ3Tf1_IKFhE6bCPFfb4DRwqzdYOB_B3wyaeKvy14fRe2Vz3Xzt50MDMwI=w491-h640" width="491" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo02XyXsIqoyf0tGF6KVjqxom-lICbygcRZqoi44Ogs45TrK7KiW4NXKlwsLrQ0Pgrj3d5D9MPOebuYk0EnDyU34zapHmJWyd-e8hFv5AXqSYdIUhc0zII9IfuFH6H8sWKPesHrVXyFCfNCdn7s5QwYk_OotOYjJpPwlA9DmOVKio5i-_j9HPBIjN5D1k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="638" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo02XyXsIqoyf0tGF6KVjqxom-lICbygcRZqoi44Ogs45TrK7KiW4NXKlwsLrQ0Pgrj3d5D9MPOebuYk0EnDyU34zapHmJWyd-e8hFv5AXqSYdIUhc0zII9IfuFH6H8sWKPesHrVXyFCfNCdn7s5QwYk_OotOYjJpPwlA9DmOVKio5i-_j9HPBIjN5D1k=w546-h482" width="546" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">My view is that results should get better or at least i should start to see more intersegment revenue for 2H and we will then reassess across 2H 2023 and 1H 2024 if the margins start to improve.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Given that a new plant was completed and the amount of staff actually decreased, this is somewhat a shock as it goes against the common sense of manufacturing. As such, i would like to see how the margins . According to online sources, the factory was completed somewhere around late April or early May hence the 2H 2023 should start to see this factory going into productions.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Probably 2 calls for concern was that <b>A) </b>the Mexico base would incur higher cost than expected,</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinaNW24p_qS0dv-REJV-L8RyeluYnRgep0tsbfbfirDWqSIkPW0T3W7yrqD2i_NwMFHAP2XbR_W_Fs_eoTZqNu4w7AVeTEGwfs3kiZ4iz8xc1Tz5MPhP9SvmaDyjTmYenU87BpFiGHsluJz1Ot423rESopX6JdCcQmKBhF0eOYSNSaxoF7mSvnyxM2kvg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="181" data-original-width="621" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinaNW24p_qS0dv-REJV-L8RyeluYnRgep0tsbfbfirDWqSIkPW0T3W7yrqD2i_NwMFHAP2XbR_W_Fs_eoTZqNu4w7AVeTEGwfs3kiZ4iz8xc1Tz5MPhP9SvmaDyjTmYenU87BpFiGHsluJz1Ot423rESopX6JdCcQmKBhF0eOYSNSaxoF7mSvnyxM2kvg=w562-h163" width="562" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Initially in March the estimation was 6.75 million USD</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg0aPqQFvOjbNYemCQbDonAVEcY5ng1SeKmni1pR7h_y8tSxKOsCW3NPpiSaD646or2tYJSab0Upq2rG13KLM57Ihg6H6nu31K6HlqqZGoHT7zCi4IegJDjD3Vb3kCpAfyf5t7DxBnpichPDdfho2R3s2Hetk5pK560wSiftqNBC-h3ewbNAUIPp920T3k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="191" data-original-width="663" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg0aPqQFvOjbNYemCQbDonAVEcY5ng1SeKmni1pR7h_y8tSxKOsCW3NPpiSaD646or2tYJSab0Upq2rG13KLM57Ihg6H6nu31K6HlqqZGoHT7zCi4IegJDjD3Vb3kCpAfyf5t7DxBnpichPDdfho2R3s2Hetk5pK560wSiftqNBC-h3ewbNAUIPp920T3k=w551-h158" width="551" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">In July the contract price was 12.11 million USD</div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>B) </b>Financing cost has doubled.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgiAn1yu2Q0Y7-R1tFcWP_w49MRJ5NX8JfIM-JUK7cuMsJb_D3AMTCCCVgWJtplu1Uusr_2EqkBsphb1oaw0rYbehlX6CsnswnIhnnebKCo-dauRMJttd7hiwQdW9cbcEpAGHlae628qWy7mE1r17yVNoDBt9sGxjoTthi8tUFbpwZg3b6s7ebdZWgz3h0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="627" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgiAn1yu2Q0Y7-R1tFcWP_w49MRJ5NX8JfIM-JUK7cuMsJb_D3AMTCCCVgWJtplu1Uusr_2EqkBsphb1oaw0rYbehlX6CsnswnIhnnebKCo-dauRMJttd7hiwQdW9cbcEpAGHlae628qWy7mE1r17yVNoDBt9sGxjoTthi8tUFbpwZg3b6s7ebdZWgz3h0=w437-h231" width="437" /></a></div></div></div></div><br />In terms of balance sheet analysis, i think these 6 months have been good cash generation<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIW6xNOhMDNBl9VEu3MI2VIlFBKBfJdu52fHu2KjffkEo-j26g1JcTXfN8VlQG3jj7hQ5TQDh-_Ar9FqTCLuxIonAE-cwVQVeedBCG5gm5KqWRxyXr7vSQhmiLktcJh7btFE6Dx6H3BIVE83sp9bKhrekPUzmunKpmxkLbeFdUzBiqeU1ldqrAcQTKmI8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="652" height="541" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIW6xNOhMDNBl9VEu3MI2VIlFBKBfJdu52fHu2KjffkEo-j26g1JcTXfN8VlQG3jj7hQ5TQDh-_Ar9FqTCLuxIonAE-cwVQVeedBCG5gm5KqWRxyXr7vSQhmiLktcJh7btFE6Dx6H3BIVE83sp9bKhrekPUzmunKpmxkLbeFdUzBiqeU1ldqrAcQTKmI8=w487-h541" width="487" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhd3rlRxI05gxSSR_zTZGF8vCm2u_GpQEhOn2-ZSVXuvI8v9VrWaE5zrzyYSQbJrFidjux36qWKVZUJ84hoJRHeWNXGeaZeRcMsDS-0655cA2qZ-_jJCwjlQj0__Y7D4LllzQ15QcK_ByWQ1owM2yY-Ulh9i1GkHwIx0BXKZL_tjAcWC3lGJK01DjBgdac" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="648" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhd3rlRxI05gxSSR_zTZGF8vCm2u_GpQEhOn2-ZSVXuvI8v9VrWaE5zrzyYSQbJrFidjux36qWKVZUJ84hoJRHeWNXGeaZeRcMsDS-0655cA2qZ-_jJCwjlQj0__Y7D4LllzQ15QcK_ByWQ1owM2yY-Ulh9i1GkHwIx0BXKZL_tjAcWC3lGJK01DjBgdac=w516-h348" width="516" /></a></div><br />Total liabilities decreased more than total assets. Cash position increased while borrowings and payables have seen a decrease. Receivables and Inventory have also decreased.<p></p><p>Overall i would say it is good for the cash flow. Although i still cast my queries on how financing cost has doubled.</p><p>I am not sure what reactions the market might have but i will probably wait to see if there are any news articles or interview that is released with regards to the 1H 2023 results before assessing further.</p><p>2) <b>Dream International</b></p><p>It is strongly advised that the <a href="http://zzxbzzinvesting.blogspot.com/2023/08/previewing-dream-international-1h-2023.html">my previous detailed writeup</a> is read before reading on.</p><p>I have mentioned about the strength of the plush stuffed toy segment due to theme park and it has indeed worked out. Much better than i thought</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOca-4nvKkqiLOejwx9q0Xip9x0gpOQf32m7PIQiFKsPeSNWkkkHt5hR28ti0byh12p3-5fr4iskQ_Fl07tDL9GxMqp_H2x-cGTfeFiva1bRltHZUYiX7hlOTXT6N_lcCU9bpb3V6pE9Li-2uqpcSyLNt7VIxjuUsanf9ZahzzVXdL6rmODwpbR3geWvs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="613" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOca-4nvKkqiLOejwx9q0Xip9x0gpOQf32m7PIQiFKsPeSNWkkkHt5hR28ti0byh12p3-5fr4iskQ_Fl07tDL9GxMqp_H2x-cGTfeFiva1bRltHZUYiX7hlOTXT6N_lcCU9bpb3V6pE9Li-2uqpcSyLNt7VIxjuUsanf9ZahzzVXdL6rmODwpbR3geWvs=w437-h262" width="437" /></a></div><br /><br /></div>The EBITDA Margin for Plush Stuffed Toys came in at <b>30.17%</b>. This is the highest in the past 3-4 years.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjASwDzcceyAoYCQsyboVD2rZBb4FFBapDCQtqn5sKKrDeoY2BN2Mj-ELGStJI3wTGcIn--JMzdsOeHoVrbuFrScmp7B5ZYhL8nnBwdotMOHfbFnhEWNgLgxsDc5ob19L9X4rsmDlVlnFbn7mNYOnp7qJ86F0myrMUoKtCFNtgLFj9ebiI7dfmZoOLG2vQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="823" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjASwDzcceyAoYCQsyboVD2rZBb4FFBapDCQtqn5sKKrDeoY2BN2Mj-ELGStJI3wTGcIn--JMzdsOeHoVrbuFrScmp7B5ZYhL8nnBwdotMOHfbFnhEWNgLgxsDc5ob19L9X4rsmDlVlnFbn7mNYOnp7qJ86F0myrMUoKtCFNtgLFj9ebiI7dfmZoOLG2vQ=w574-h234" width="574" /></a></div><br />Looking at the geographical breakdown, we can easily ascertain that most of the margin contributions should come from Japan and China. This is because the increase in plush stuffed toys segment coincides with Japan and PRC revenue increase and to a small extent, Hong Kong.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhfowYUSriaRhH_x67ND85FuveBbJhV-Z4w2L9ODcEfzHB4_YdljgvKdXnAgPbVtZK3QG1JM9m7nM6Raja-wy3dwQkdG-np-V1SBHwQEyUQ7U9rRpDL6eDcuGqp4WgK-mHOlIpUMkmwSrY79Wv1DCyDTOYi2VOiICZ0_MEXOfVB-rumqSMR6zpcsj5_Du0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="883" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhfowYUSriaRhH_x67ND85FuveBbJhV-Z4w2L9ODcEfzHB4_YdljgvKdXnAgPbVtZK3QG1JM9m7nM6Raja-wy3dwQkdG-np-V1SBHwQEyUQ7U9rRpDL6eDcuGqp4WgK-mHOlIpUMkmwSrY79Wv1DCyDTOYi2VOiICZ0_MEXOfVB-rumqSMR6zpcsj5_Du0=w532-h456" width="532" /></a></div>My initial thoughts after the seeing the results are<p></p><p>1) Are the margins sustainable?</p><p>2) What were the main factors in making these margins so high?</p><p>3) How far are the orderbooks being placed (as such to estimate the certainty/ uncertainty)</p><p>4) Was revenue increased in Plush Toy Segment as a result of production or rise in prices?</p><p>5) How lean are operations? Are the segments interchangable for the plants?</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBBRnLpq2-Nz77-NYOogUaq_sT4EbcO5YL5lW7m72tMoGDzdE9tjeP8KjzjcnPEQSFVxdt1eQ4eksE6mOBg9OCMN7MwNl6cQJeWrMWqlGxIJ8x1fTGyslCKs23sJRzrgXdkB-2P4jAIILADv5PcPIYM2V-sQngwGsknlWTV2Vp1OZBDtxP2bYslArp-dg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="993" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBBRnLpq2-Nz77-NYOogUaq_sT4EbcO5YL5lW7m72tMoGDzdE9tjeP8KjzjcnPEQSFVxdt1eQ4eksE6mOBg9OCMN7MwNl6cQJeWrMWqlGxIJ8x1fTGyslCKs23sJRzrgXdkB-2P4jAIILADv5PcPIYM2V-sQngwGsknlWTV2Vp1OZBDtxP2bYslArp-dg=w566-h196" width="566" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Q5 popped up as i read this.</div><br /><br /><p></p><p>As usual, i went to email the Dream Investor Relations to see if i could get a reply. The summarized reply is as follows</p><p>1) Many parts of production process are interchangeable between segments. Currently Plush Factories is higher than Plastic ( which means that Plush is actually more labor intensive and as expected)</p><p>2) Theme Park Sales to Asia are of high quality and as such have better margins. Stable Raw Material Cost was also a crucial factor.</p><p>3) Increase of over 30% in production volume for Plush Stuffed Toys imply that the price increase if any was minimal.</p><p>4) Orders are placed 4-6 months before shipping date.</p><p>Therefore, the focus on raw materials and Asia theme park performances will continue to be crucial. In my previous analysis i have mentioned on it as well.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p><p><br /></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-67238309026039426162023-08-04T02:59:00.000-07:002023-08-04T02:59:02.547-07:00Previewing Dream International 1H 2023 (Unlikely to be Good) (Deep Dive)<p>Dream International is currently my 2nd largest position in my portfolio this year.</p><p>After gathering various sources of information, i will be sharing my view with regards to its upcoming results. The TLDR Version is that<b> i think it will not be good but i will hold onto it putting my faith in the teddy bears</b>.</p><p>As Dream International usually releases its profit guidance on 2nd to 3rd week of August and its Half Year Results at the last week of August, we will see if there is any guidance as well this time around.</p><p>The company has a spectacular record of releasing either a positive profit alert / profit warning as per the table below.</p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Financial Year<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Profit
Announcement<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2022 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Positive (3x
in Net Profit)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2021 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Negative (43 –
53% fall in Net Profit)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2020 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">None but
Profit fell 30%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2019 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Positive
(Considerably Higher but % Not Mentioned)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2018 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Negative
(Considerably Lower but % Not Mentioned)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2017 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Positive (Amount
not mentioned)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2016 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Positive (Amount
not mentioned)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2015 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Positive (Amount
not mentioned)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">2014 1H<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 225.4pt;" valign="top" width="301">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;">Negative (Amount
not mentioned)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p>Looking at stats, 5 Positive 4 Negative, we can bet on it being positive... oh wait no its not Baccarat sorry.</p><p><u>Introduction</u></p><p>Dream International is a global toy manufacturer that manufactures plastic figures and plush stuffed toys. Its plants are in Vietnam and China.</p><p>At end of 2019, it has 4 plants in China and 15 plants in Vietnam. </p><p>At end of 2022, it has 7 plants in China and 20 plants in Vietnam.</p><p><span>Perhaps an interesting stat is that in 2019 revenue is 3.9 billion HKD while 26717 staff is being hired.</span></p><p><span>In 2022, revenue is 6.2 billion HKD while 28924 staff is being hired. </span></p><p>In terms of the Plastic Figure Segment, the most notable customer would be Funko</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7msu-atVA7FUJXuVN_2n_lKLUfJVqnTQxBDVimpaAnzWR4sXaSOLFei-FGn2WeGPSBLUjB3alNOx84XcGCEx5NFPTHhFB2Uv2C24u7gxtWZ00u9jGSxwPN4NBjiZrz0EDfODt2oDtbPIaB67hYuZLMqkqlI26_brG0OGaxfKER2NzCKwu4T4V2TwEm0Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="480" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7msu-atVA7FUJXuVN_2n_lKLUfJVqnTQxBDVimpaAnzWR4sXaSOLFei-FGn2WeGPSBLUjB3alNOx84XcGCEx5NFPTHhFB2Uv2C24u7gxtWZ00u9jGSxwPN4NBjiZrz0EDfODt2oDtbPIaB67hYuZLMqkqlI26_brG0OGaxfKER2NzCKwu4T4V2TwEm0Q" width="240" /></a></div><br />In terms of the Plush Stuffed Toy, the most notable customer would be Disney<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfL6zbLEN5P-agmadvA6Guj1emcxM8Naf1i95SOOpliLUcXYNVFte3p26Sq73NmCiC_y5hpeAmh7ja5Z2l_eJ2LCaDQmw3JMVEuV_b36UQDNWMT2rU3nF1TTJZUZrIrRj2fJy01xGcKnpnhAGhAQlniCC_S3Eho-vmzOUu9jqkrmiKCdG-MxoU0BZ8YEk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="1076" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfL6zbLEN5P-agmadvA6Guj1emcxM8Naf1i95SOOpliLUcXYNVFte3p26Sq73NmCiC_y5hpeAmh7ja5Z2l_eJ2LCaDQmw3JMVEuV_b36UQDNWMT2rU3nF1TTJZUZrIrRj2fJy01xGcKnpnhAGhAQlniCC_S3Eho-vmzOUu9jqkrmiKCdG-MxoU0BZ8YEk=w465-h257" width="465" /></a></div><br />In terms of the revenue spread, the 2 major segments revenue and profit is as follows<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8rR6KiaITR49F00QauXHQNMvIkPj1WIh-BsbnUSeWTauEWzZZlQgrDbiiful1L2v4CR6VejKH3uYJZNJ8UWNbUc24f8cU_Bg6nb_a_3ERKqRzBOtqricMz6hngfVF3Cc1ewcqhbgYGTczfRaavJhs4QKIIgwRqZ_E3AYaZ_Lh7uhShfM5eAt90tnNIgo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="223" data-original-width="576" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8rR6KiaITR49F00QauXHQNMvIkPj1WIh-BsbnUSeWTauEWzZZlQgrDbiiful1L2v4CR6VejKH3uYJZNJ8UWNbUc24f8cU_Bg6nb_a_3ERKqRzBOtqricMz6hngfVF3Cc1ewcqhbgYGTczfRaavJhs4QKIIgwRqZ_E3AYaZ_Lh7uhShfM5eAt90tnNIgo=w497-h192" width="497" /></a></div></div><br />As such, we can conclude that 2022 had a much higher margin and in terms of profit, plush stuffed toys has overtook plastic figures in 2021. <p></p><p>In fact, revenue has kind of peaked in 2022 2H for plastic figures compared to its amount in 2021 2H.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4XyPzJZfX_84sbUrtqIWKckdh5nBcID6C2S605ZBCwxaUBVB0X93bArbrpDJtHzgVmIbe-CcCAPIcflY92t_R3gNI08jtkhQFUQ_ZY74dDG-80JbFmsj50MLa6ix2NvQWRDXWeAVpboAvf9JsjkCiQAKZwNqCn5OF9kMD52gKPIq5qo6pqQmj4Q6Kg-c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="222" data-original-width="297" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4XyPzJZfX_84sbUrtqIWKckdh5nBcID6C2S605ZBCwxaUBVB0X93bArbrpDJtHzgVmIbe-CcCAPIcflY92t_R3gNI08jtkhQFUQ_ZY74dDG-80JbFmsj50MLa6ix2NvQWRDXWeAVpboAvf9JsjkCiQAKZwNqCn5OF9kMD52gKPIq5qo6pqQmj4Q6Kg-c" width="320" /></a></div><br />Some of its ratios that i just plugged off from Stockscafe.<p></p><p><u>Why i believe results might not be good</u></p><p><b>1) Funko Depression</b></p><p>The elephant in the room is probably Funko, Although it has recorded an increase of contribution from 1.6 billion HKD in 2021 to 2.1 billion HKD in 2022, Funko has reported its 1H 2023 results and while it was already expected to be bad, there was a downwards revision of around 10% of revenue.</p><p>In its earnings call, management has spoke about ordering less as its strategy for now as it is trying to digest inventory and to avoid over inventory problems as it wrote off inventory in 1Q 2023.</p><p>This replicates what Dream International mentioned in their FY as customers might have inventory pressures.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1aeHt_BbHuXNfET8GjJjacAttUvWoplVrXRTTvAONDXNzzbe3tfiCtDsuJ54IH74kH5UVJFv4DCkxwMLumi2etDEfxYNXKRNvNIUaeuUNhkdHUuREuY5xy1tGSG4WbP81kDTlGTz_4qWtsfmxGps_gTf38RcPcwWSTpg7XFnmpxT_C55zmHLeMMY8KPQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="664" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1aeHt_BbHuXNfET8GjJjacAttUvWoplVrXRTTvAONDXNzzbe3tfiCtDsuJ54IH74kH5UVJFv4DCkxwMLumi2etDEfxYNXKRNvNIUaeuUNhkdHUuREuY5xy1tGSG4WbP81kDTlGTz_4qWtsfmxGps_gTf38RcPcwWSTpg7XFnmpxT_C55zmHLeMMY8KPQ=w522-h157" width="522" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>In my own analysis, i estimated that around 27 to 35% of Funko's sourcing is from Dream International. While on Dream's end, Funko accounts for around 34% of its revenue.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqIYOAtz6r7G7k4ldLgi2yuTs4mIdP09dzjUHZVXwYPhykfUId_ggFZAbty6Bigp4vFopVVgqsP6WZSK0g7vFm8aaJOVVhLcWsZk9NCR9TQDlS07wtHS3h0qcIgs34_bFQqFWmgbbb84AJi08TAPneBEofDYKSOcXh47dHV4tW6k8xuPLhXVelJYOocH4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="64" data-original-width="778" height="47" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqIYOAtz6r7G7k4ldLgi2yuTs4mIdP09dzjUHZVXwYPhykfUId_ggFZAbty6Bigp4vFopVVgqsP6WZSK0g7vFm8aaJOVVhLcWsZk9NCR9TQDlS07wtHS3h0qcIgs34_bFQqFWmgbbb84AJi08TAPneBEofDYKSOcXh47dHV4tW6k8xuPLhXVelJYOocH4=w580-h47" width="580" /></a></div><br />In fact, in recent years, the movement in additional orders from Funko has been same direction as its Dream's revenue from Funko.<p></p><p>As such, in 1H 2023, the estimated addition is 283 Million USD, which is 40% lower than 2022 1H addition and as such we can estimate a similar fall in revenue as well from Dream's Plastic Figures Segment.</p><p><span>To prepare things for the worst, i emailed Dream hoping to get a reply on whether the reduced orders are from other partners or does it include Dream as well. Fortunately i got a reply but unfortunately it is not good.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEii6z0f94vVnJDHEzgQ5eYP3Rr4qqAj-o5uXXTWsOSUt0n-GPcqII2sIhCphmVRIDeMnVJTXtR1FFVkyz8GVx_d6qi1iJkgnkiXK1x4J0bn6ePtT3x2Yxoe0mJ1-2UB4Zb8N19huA9ClVov8H80iPGe1IDGQNNTHMYHCudcupk_qPOElNFPvP_Y7mEOqms" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="133" data-original-width="665" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEii6z0f94vVnJDHEzgQ5eYP3Rr4qqAj-o5uXXTWsOSUt0n-GPcqII2sIhCphmVRIDeMnVJTXtR1FFVkyz8GVx_d6qi1iJkgnkiXK1x4J0bn6ePtT3x2Yxoe0mJ1-2UB4Zb8N19huA9ClVov8H80iPGe1IDGQNNTHMYHCudcupk_qPOElNFPvP_Y7mEOqms=w520-h104" width="520" /></a></div><b>2) Bad export data from Vietnam</b><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjl5hPm7H3gSOQ8swVlETTB7CRQIHNy3BTjQVPdtgD9QdkLIl_DpFDhekpTOUfEtfszrWl4N8ZDLlSbzacIo-yJsBstUTI277d7kNCjacETvzJTQrAjZwpHm1nRtdXhbTycbthvx4UjZXR12CTzDi59KYNZABm6CdN0JWXPQCfmOwhBxYDxNE2ztjrwbMo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="182" data-original-width="407" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjl5hPm7H3gSOQ8swVlETTB7CRQIHNy3BTjQVPdtgD9QdkLIl_DpFDhekpTOUfEtfszrWl4N8ZDLlSbzacIo-yJsBstUTI277d7kNCjacETvzJTQrAjZwpHm1nRtdXhbTycbthvx4UjZXR12CTzDi59KYNZABm6CdN0JWXPQCfmOwhBxYDxNE2ztjrwbMo" width="320" /></a></div><br />1 critic of my research from an interviewer is that i tend to not include macro analysis. As such, i went back and crunch some figures to find some macro numbers.<p></p><p>Unfortunately, Vietnam's exports classify toys as under the segment of </p><p>'Toys, games and sports requisites; parts and accessories thereof'</p><div>As such, a pure figure cannot be achieved but at least a reference can be achieved and it paints the same negative story as US Exports is down -25%. While EU has recorded a good increase, Dream has very little revenue to EU so while it can be done, it would be something out of the data.</div><div><br /></div><div>I went to crunch a bit more numbers to see if the story matches in 2021.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0EAxTZC6Foz515hcmF7J-DRc-Vou8j2V-0VYRIcRxhqKl4U0A8gjpoTHqXx-TMPGG0OBM6_uXeM0UEA8TS2doxDKetoaXVXybClB7Oexf3tQN-D6iOIfdsiDIYGPXs2SEAo6bKtvncSa2rdGOU2bEajpAIghlRczAFOgonHmgwucBJY6gYjR-LGj8uBA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="85" data-original-width="407" height="67" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0EAxTZC6Foz515hcmF7J-DRc-Vou8j2V-0VYRIcRxhqKl4U0A8gjpoTHqXx-TMPGG0OBM6_uXeM0UEA8TS2doxDKetoaXVXybClB7Oexf3tQN-D6iOIfdsiDIYGPXs2SEAo6bKtvncSa2rdGOU2bEajpAIghlRczAFOgonHmgwucBJY6gYjR-LGj8uBA" width="320" /></a></div><br />While not exactly the same magnitude, the increase is quite apparent. As such if i look at export numbers, i estimate at least another 25% fall from Funko and US in general. Once again it tallies with part 1.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>If by now you can still read on further and want to know why i would be holding it till at least the results or any guidance is announced, do read further </b></div><div><br /></div><div>Points of Optimism or just Chicken Soup</div><div><br /></div><div><b>1) Oriental Land Boomz</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Oriental Land is the operator of Japan Disneyland and Disneysea. As mentioned previously, it is a key customer of Dream. In fact, Dream's revenue to Japan has doubled from 490 million in 2021 to 1.1 billion in 2022.</div><div><br /></div><div>In fact, the revenue from its 2nd largest customer (Believed to be Disney) increased from 480 million in 2021 to 1 billion in 2022.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivVdnKg6mif50AxVFlv5fFyLq2oYlBsBUNGaFhGkn0u6gpseU9uCeIXbMEtCcGJHtIbujWR0jgEFPPm3f0vcD7-dN5OY9Al4kuuUUgzzw_DOErDEYUOkks7zSam95ZXY8HM98fwMhXK0XJB2-VKaXNhGxJPa8d7EIPhiFCvCIOkKUrr8j7Yu9fDW-fkXw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="159" data-original-width="664" height="108" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivVdnKg6mif50AxVFlv5fFyLq2oYlBsBUNGaFhGkn0u6gpseU9uCeIXbMEtCcGJHtIbujWR0jgEFPPm3f0vcD7-dN5OY9Al4kuuUUgzzw_DOErDEYUOkks7zSam95ZXY8HM98fwMhXK0XJB2-VKaXNhGxJPa8d7EIPhiFCvCIOkKUrr8j7Yu9fDW-fkXw=w449-h108" width="449" /></a></div>Dream has also attributed the growth to theme parks welcoming crowd. Fortunately this looks like it has kicked on to a higher level in 2023.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo4NIgpTJAS03cf9yXnr5YeUhRb4OcQ5heFqSzUyhDUBxhFG9dKT7Xbb6J3M9g-z4ZNdFxt4MGnVazvqOQjg6SQdBPre8qFokirX6vX7bmyjCbRI4Hxd-gqjPJsselmf1EIn61gxrHSC0o7Zys6r1DzP2KkdzM6V8EaqC6ixJcq7pzPD2XkzBe1ht08Oc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="101" data-original-width="808" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo4NIgpTJAS03cf9yXnr5YeUhRb4OcQ5heFqSzUyhDUBxhFG9dKT7Xbb6J3M9g-z4ZNdFxt4MGnVazvqOQjg6SQdBPre8qFokirX6vX7bmyjCbRI4Hxd-gqjPJsselmf1EIn61gxrHSC0o7Zys6r1DzP2KkdzM6V8EaqC6ixJcq7pzPD2XkzBe1ht08Oc=w547-h68" width="547" /></a></div><br />I pulled out Oriental Land's Inventory level and merchandise revenue for 1H 2023. Both of which are significantly higher than 1H 2022. A figure i forgot to include was Jan 2022 to March 2022 but it is around 18214.</div><div><br /></div><div>As such, merchandise revenue at Japan Disney in 1H 2023 was around 72000 while in 1H 2022 it was around 42000. An increase of more than 50%.</div><div><br /></div><div>Looking at this and the higher inventory level, i believe there will be seep through impact to Dream.</div><div><br /></div><div>The caveat to this analysis will be</div><div>1) How much capacity is available to produce more bears</div><div>2) Export figures do not indicate any double digit increase to Japan</div><div><br /></div><div>For Point 1, i believe there is still ability to raise the production as utilization rate is only 80%.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh3rbC6bvprJhDBBJd938ay4hQ136NdRDhYnNzR0xTNO3sEy1pFPe2urTZUnMztW6_-ViXT9pEDEcRrrVwTLQzx5wVghFu6ORX4Etb2fk3JzLt662BR72REHBoyR9_m-POEKZq-sbbKWNxSTO4RhG9huCbHO7FP6j42n3E_RPLs3nrOfy1b8nqLR_d3La0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="100" data-original-width="651" height="70" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh3rbC6bvprJhDBBJd938ay4hQ136NdRDhYnNzR0xTNO3sEy1pFPe2urTZUnMztW6_-ViXT9pEDEcRrrVwTLQzx5wVghFu6ORX4Etb2fk3JzLt662BR72REHBoyR9_m-POEKZq-sbbKWNxSTO4RhG9huCbHO7FP6j42n3E_RPLs3nrOfy1b8nqLR_d3La0=w458-h70" width="458" /></a></div>There is also the option of doing overtime.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGPMcDU_jNVyX14lR7B0H8QmM6rhrmPdAucqatNRPXBzACXFrgBeCoqToYquxoXRda2DddkOhTWjTOLbye2M6PPmg-gJIDAsIxxDE0n5iwXiETIdItrFI9Hf2YtTBotKgyTjoM1-gVWWfzJsswJmwCTjR2eISGXm5KArvJ8tPnflFR2dMzd0Bt7bDuZCY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="638" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGPMcDU_jNVyX14lR7B0H8QmM6rhrmPdAucqatNRPXBzACXFrgBeCoqToYquxoXRda2DddkOhTWjTOLbye2M6PPmg-gJIDAsIxxDE0n5iwXiETIdItrFI9Hf2YtTBotKgyTjoM1-gVWWfzJsswJmwCTjR2eISGXm5KArvJ8tPnflFR2dMzd0Bt7bDuZCY=w392-h147" width="392" /></a></div><br />For point 2, there is no rebuttal but the category is too wide to be specific, for what we know badminton rackets could have reduced demand as folks decided to go for China made ones. Also we have to think if the increase in China Plants could be the one that exports to Japan instead.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>2) Positive Results from USS and Sega</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Perhaps to a much lesser extend, Dream does produce for USS and Sega as well.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZMQis8biRyIeZFnysBoDdFZ0IkXO6U5mWuH60u6StwINtmSHoVTAYdo-Nzkr5bBe7ZF8OAprFT_oIlXi71pqUZ1BUM18sXk9mLXXhvpVKIJkgQl4MpUbvqkVnB60pt3Njd6CPbWeDC4SmDIGzOIN0PiSHHPgG0uzNYUrsgvGz8z5iiulU2A1IjvimRAo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="720" height="395" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZMQis8biRyIeZFnysBoDdFZ0IkXO6U5mWuH60u6StwINtmSHoVTAYdo-Nzkr5bBe7ZF8OAprFT_oIlXi71pqUZ1BUM18sXk9mLXXhvpVKIJkgQl4MpUbvqkVnB60pt3Njd6CPbWeDC4SmDIGzOIN0PiSHHPgG0uzNYUrsgvGz8z5iiulU2A1IjvimRAo=w297-h395" width="297" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(I had to google to find out this was Anpaman from Sega?.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgczdMadtee3n7PUjMGhz-N92yQy8raFrzPprGBer-2v8riFvhpMs8KNd41gVxRGtnYe3BbH9cDreCHBslRdNoh5WCerhBb1mft4arq3D2KkMHpzpAro3B5XxPSp7I3vcKja-tLdEdppfpnn1gJ-6Ac9wtfkYCcCOXnPWR8leT4OWWbDeZFliJyBPyxCfE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="720" height="375" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgczdMadtee3n7PUjMGhz-N92yQy8raFrzPprGBer-2v8riFvhpMs8KNd41gVxRGtnYe3BbH9cDreCHBslRdNoh5WCerhBb1mft4arq3D2KkMHpzpAro3B5XxPSp7I3vcKja-tLdEdppfpnn1gJ-6Ac9wtfkYCcCOXnPWR8leT4OWWbDeZFliJyBPyxCfE=w282-h375" width="282" /></a></div>(I believe so...maybe its bandai but my research shows that Sega is a customer either way)</div></div><div><br /></div><div>I am much more certain on Sega but less so for USS (Although in a human rights report 2012, it has been reported that Dream does produce for China and Japan USS Disney)</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi928sUnCOKlavvqJcaocjPjvjy_KQ9VCIvuaOj8AIU5ApajUoHRmp2UP00N1v7P3e7Fn1pFZbmqQfOIwCwxBAOQxh0xeQhRF83hJ7FZYo9YYanVYHr7zHQ3HQ7jiklZrW0qp8KWIeLl9J6C1ToKrLk3HYs9zbknbumUXYHQhf5VKsATYeHJ5te1cRvlUc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="905" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi928sUnCOKlavvqJcaocjPjvjy_KQ9VCIvuaOj8AIU5ApajUoHRmp2UP00N1v7P3e7Fn1pFZbmqQfOIwCwxBAOQxh0xeQhRF83hJ7FZYo9YYanVYHr7zHQ3HQ7jiklZrW0qp8KWIeLl9J6C1ToKrLk3HYs9zbknbumUXYHQhf5VKsATYeHJ5te1cRvlUc=w465-h331" width="465" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi928sUnCOKlavvqJcaocjPjvjy_KQ9VCIvuaOj8AIU5ApajUoHRmp2UP00N1v7P3e7Fn1pFZbmqQfOIwCwxBAOQxh0xeQhRF83hJ7FZYo9YYanVYHr7zHQ3HQ7jiklZrW0qp8KWIeLl9J6C1ToKrLk3HYs9zbknbumUXYHQhf5VKsATYeHJ5te1cRvlUc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhLtkDrY87qUkvSGGrQpCSw3eZ4fOTrk1goVzFmR_hCM_8Vxt5EAizq9xlaZ6U83_7VvGgs0_lScRXLZHqlImpuehLqgP-QNqQFmYR-l-EW7F3a5aZm77KuMI4PrmaRjjgCghccDtzyye_rdI09bFZ78PVsCthF5j6w3mLgQVyIDSAe6fFerwKm2PoAGlE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="888" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhLtkDrY87qUkvSGGrQpCSw3eZ4fOTrk1goVzFmR_hCM_8Vxt5EAizq9xlaZ6U83_7VvGgs0_lScRXLZHqlImpuehLqgP-QNqQFmYR-l-EW7F3a5aZm77KuMI4PrmaRjjgCghccDtzyye_rdI09bFZ78PVsCthF5j6w3mLgQVyIDSAe6fFerwKm2PoAGlE=w510-h351" width="510" /></a></div><br /></div>As such, from Comcast's theme park segment which is Universal Studios, we can see that there is a rebound in revenue.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgvH24DlIlyGpPGY_U3rN5U8YY1FWt-7BvhvJKKPe_D2M2natvi-b7axk7cd1wM6W5ZM-alcqhfefdn5junU-VN_83k2JLlkSYS_xYQFsudLOVn46ZdTsBlPc9aXpJMeA0sPo7KuWCuL7IWQi3J4gm1Xb1vGGdXwstk_px_cWOop2xrb-HZV6w_M0vXAeI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="614" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgvH24DlIlyGpPGY_U3rN5U8YY1FWt-7BvhvJKKPe_D2M2natvi-b7axk7cd1wM6W5ZM-alcqhfefdn5junU-VN_83k2JLlkSYS_xYQFsudLOVn46ZdTsBlPc9aXpJMeA0sPo7KuWCuL7IWQi3J4gm1Xb1vGGdXwstk_px_cWOop2xrb-HZV6w_M0vXAeI=w431-h315" width="431" /></a></div><br />Currently results look good for Apr to Jun 2023 for Sega. Jan to Mar 23 also came in at 46% higher revenue.</div><div><br /></div><div>Overall, the Japan Sentiments looks strong.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>3) Dream Vietnam Operations Information</b></div><div><br /></div><div>By now my head would have hurt trying to process the info, but that's investing on a deep dive basis and it is to assess the pros and cons.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sometimes googling the company's factories brings wonder after using google translate. I am always happy to be able to find more information even if the information might be 1) Misleading. 2) Irrelevant to the grand scheme of things. 3) Give too much Chicken Soup Assurance. After all, it is up to the reader to interpret the information read.</div><p><span>To do a layman version, we go from the top to bottom.</span></p><p><span>1st Google Dream Plastic Ninh Binh as it is a subsidiary found on the Annual Report of Dream International.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiO2YXfpZiHv7AK1OrHScMZe0bgkeiJyD9yOpX2msB-IWlr_umTIIF_6QK4TZ0YEX1Z2uchc9W_PcRGmPf54hLfgX31G7lLrYc1GdujZfU4BGp3fMGx3_LsdN4tsHHdGjJy1w1Af4dSWJYpzocnV9_xccI0zUAL_4en8R0i3LaGrIkCZS6qXHa01J2ziG0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="1514" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiO2YXfpZiHv7AK1OrHScMZe0bgkeiJyD9yOpX2msB-IWlr_umTIIF_6QK4TZ0YEX1Z2uchc9W_PcRGmPf54hLfgX31G7lLrYc1GdujZfU4BGp3fMGx3_LsdN4tsHHdGjJy1w1Af4dSWJYpzocnV9_xccI0zUAL_4en8R0i3LaGrIkCZS6qXHa01J2ziG0=w481-h209" width="481" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7lciV_p8PofXlSVOXD7fyy5h7n6vAlsIUTM2BPlifymzd0e_HnU87FnX87kc_z4eQhu-upecfnC89ee9N9_WBPd0m6uZMbXyxld4AQDkDsyW4gcCIA647W5jO4PY-AKYKY_Q_6FiqVNYxYBnUflAPb_t2NunHUPGY8NkGmjMYdP2UeNyF8xB2bFGYIXU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="960" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7lciV_p8PofXlSVOXD7fyy5h7n6vAlsIUTM2BPlifymzd0e_HnU87FnX87kc_z4eQhu-upecfnC89ee9N9_WBPd0m6uZMbXyxld4AQDkDsyW4gcCIA647W5jO4PY-AKYKY_Q_6FiqVNYxYBnUflAPb_t2NunHUPGY8NkGmjMYdP2UeNyF8xB2bFGYIXU=w484-h218" width="484" /></a></div><br /><br /></div>Yup i saw Dream International Logo hence it is the right company.<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh-GpUSzs-13Wpo6d_txnlbbeb3rSGePXuxTDp8oGXYEZzRbNPrIWVgKegYAy8sT2ijN0EH16HMNtKr3_xilYP3R7XCb1ggcJLGYeF-DKnMpuktz2DbPdBbcaiU8q77JGi26aNiByDgbnVRnZYk4o-JPVkRxtAChmU7tyQxJg4ofDdWup_sCM10Fu_pjUQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="652" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh-GpUSzs-13Wpo6d_txnlbbeb3rSGePXuxTDp8oGXYEZzRbNPrIWVgKegYAy8sT2ijN0EH16HMNtKr3_xilYP3R7XCb1ggcJLGYeF-DKnMpuktz2DbPdBbcaiU8q77JGi26aNiByDgbnVRnZYk4o-JPVkRxtAChmU7tyQxJg4ofDdWup_sCM10Fu_pjUQ=w423-h378" width="423" /></a></div><p><span> I found this article on Dream on 8 Feb 2023 published in a vietnam news portal. Glad to hear that there has been no major retrenchment or layoffs which is common when demand is low.</span><br /></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglkiCzaG4hxwvU7TW2D8N3zvjGZf5PSWBdwPXgC0YM-QCvD3GJ2Gx5FBX_n__Xq4jDA7rMlZxTmqVboDuRsCxQXix4HC_ikFz3p0_0XybwTdx_7EmD9p-N8oVfxoOs6_vfi_uSY9tRlzrHFDsXw3FHRHr0w-9vuR9tPtvoBrBzFmPqnpN6of-qUBwc1ZM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="453" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglkiCzaG4hxwvU7TW2D8N3zvjGZf5PSWBdwPXgC0YM-QCvD3GJ2Gx5FBX_n__Xq4jDA7rMlZxTmqVboDuRsCxQXix4HC_ikFz3p0_0XybwTdx_7EmD9p-N8oVfxoOs6_vfi_uSY9tRlzrHFDsXw3FHRHr0w-9vuR9tPtvoBrBzFmPqnpN6of-qUBwc1ZM=w365-h301" width="365" /></a></div><br />Another information found indicates hiring of 200 staff when the previous reported is 1000. Hmm that is some food for thought but i am always glad that a factory is hiring compared to a factory that is not hiring.<p></p><p><span><br /></span></p><p><u>Conclusion</u></p><p>As an opportunist who wants to flip the prata for a good results and make gains and run road, i would not have picked Dream International for the upcoming flipping as the elephant in the room is that Funko is the headwind.</p><p>If i were to look at the segment profits, margin has been dominant in the teddy bear segment and this relates to the theme parks which has been strong.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibkhqNH8DJ9ZJgtxuLpkOqJNQ2fwcpx7ukKsi0R3-M24tQ-z_OCKJlG9jnoco6c3v6Y5AqjJumul_E7wTEGJBa-qtkcVxa29D8M5GMK-c6p0NFDt6uY5EZFuagtZUUB5vUkrTYZAjSyD1UMTu46WNcnnGHciT_StmCg8Z8HjRl8kkHSnw5OcGVvZ6bseA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="622" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibkhqNH8DJ9ZJgtxuLpkOqJNQ2fwcpx7ukKsi0R3-M24tQ-z_OCKJlG9jnoco6c3v6Y5AqjJumul_E7wTEGJBa-qtkcVxa29D8M5GMK-c6p0NFDt6uY5EZFuagtZUUB5vUkrTYZAjSyD1UMTu46WNcnnGHciT_StmCg8Z8HjRl8kkHSnw5OcGVvZ6bseA=w477-h264" width="477" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Company wise, it has been hiring despite the Funko drop in revenue and possibly orders from Dream.</p><p>The last time Funko had lower revenue, Dream posted an overall drop of revenue as well but it was less than 10%. In fact, Dream's revenue has been increasing from 2018 to 2022 with 2020 being the exception.</p><p>Profit was the bigger issue as raw materials cost affected profit in 2021 and 2020, as such despite higher revenue in 2021 compared to 2019, profits is more than 50% down.</p><p>A possible reason will be the price of PVC, price of PP and price of ABS. All of which commonly used in toys.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgJAgmWcopye4F8ACTuC5qNNz3bp7a5QAz4r0Tw1Qee8HnxKRrfs2HB6gFqY3velS7jAD65otoq3Tv-hMX2buysaD6W1srjdYlLmVt7uVKvpYVBkOvb2mF9bxMgc7Bd3r5ib5DZilcg-HNoFhPAsv32eU0JBF8_fvO8eVLr_ESOtDZ90cO2tNkLDZ85bRA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="557" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgJAgmWcopye4F8ACTuC5qNNz3bp7a5QAz4r0Tw1Qee8HnxKRrfs2HB6gFqY3velS7jAD65otoq3Tv-hMX2buysaD6W1srjdYlLmVt7uVKvpYVBkOvb2mF9bxMgc7Bd3r5ib5DZilcg-HNoFhPAsv32eU0JBF8_fvO8eVLr_ESOtDZ90cO2tNkLDZ85bRA=w451-h334" width="451" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTBQKJO8q_NZYv3LpPYCv0Sfa3qs0WG728MA6sIWH33LlwD6hcSAhUQgqPfXYSywtg1IYzYGlYYU8g1tpCxKZ3PJYETXpjsjwSCiHX264Sj5ryWKB-VD3Ri6Ep45b-JoHnzDqA51ynWmMSaIYkoiXEdBWDmbCj67XV_y00bJeuOCzf69RrQf_lfOY8SF4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="889" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTBQKJO8q_NZYv3LpPYCv0Sfa3qs0WG728MA6sIWH33LlwD6hcSAhUQgqPfXYSywtg1IYzYGlYYU8g1tpCxKZ3PJYETXpjsjwSCiHX264Sj5ryWKB-VD3Ri6Ep45b-JoHnzDqA51ynWmMSaIYkoiXEdBWDmbCj67XV_y00bJeuOCzf69RrQf_lfOY8SF4=w454-h281" width="454" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTBQKJO8q_NZYv3LpPYCv0Sfa3qs0WG728MA6sIWH33LlwD6hcSAhUQgqPfXYSywtg1IYzYGlYYU8g1tpCxKZ3PJYETXpjsjwSCiHX264Sj5ryWKB-VD3Ri6Ep45b-JoHnzDqA51ynWmMSaIYkoiXEdBWDmbCj67XV_y00bJeuOCzf69RrQf_lfOY8SF4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiJhLJ3FlyKZxp_sGR-enYX70NeiHaBvDWbfbdwi_I2ss7QCmWAnxBsTC-YOvR2hvAmUuiuPXX43veckvmo60yuXVQrqFth6W12xB5KZE8SsuD1m7h_CvkMZfpnDx9mxymwhxjp_TaycFgW_H_yYEDjGMXBdsULsEFaqmu7MvQmJ6HJB14xFzFq3-6SkLw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="566" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiJhLJ3FlyKZxp_sGR-enYX70NeiHaBvDWbfbdwi_I2ss7QCmWAnxBsTC-YOvR2hvAmUuiuPXX43veckvmo60yuXVQrqFth6W12xB5KZE8SsuD1m7h_CvkMZfpnDx9mxymwhxjp_TaycFgW_H_yYEDjGMXBdsULsEFaqmu7MvQmJ6HJB14xFzFq3-6SkLw=w455-h337" width="455" /></a></div><br /></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;">All of which showing a higher level in 2021 compared to 2023.</span></div><br /><p></p><p>Given the analysis of the above, knowing the plastic figures segment will have lower revenue, it is up to the company to see if they can source for new customers to that segment as well as optimize to improve the margins.</p><p>I am hoping the teddy bears work wonders and cover the shortfall from plastic figures. With an investor relation that actually bothers to reply, i am somewhat more inclined to hold it longer.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtIdOv7PCiUK4VvkvXGDUJUwFlv5APi7VvJcQpscRQ-HEALGj7flzyGVjcliSI-uKttO5aC4_0QJCpOBqQ-MUfrMIB0PLGNcFJmKx4YcLd60RochJfKE40P7CGhX1jvcHuI_tjElIgJCMvpRNDDHOAWuS6cd2EsfOHWeOUH016I9akpYdrW7cnL9Jt9pU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1364" data-original-width="2048" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtIdOv7PCiUK4VvkvXGDUJUwFlv5APi7VvJcQpscRQ-HEALGj7flzyGVjcliSI-uKttO5aC4_0QJCpOBqQ-MUfrMIB0PLGNcFJmKx4YcLd60RochJfKE40P7CGhX1jvcHuI_tjElIgJCMvpRNDDHOAWuS6cd2EsfOHWeOUH016I9akpYdrW7cnL9Jt9pU=w503-h335" width="503" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-6255575141102861022023-07-31T02:53:00.004-07:002023-07-31T02:53:56.211-07:00(July 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjTGRlxG5b0hK4Ql2ItQ_nGrpU5lFlTLgAfjC0Ga4uI4o3lNjVQZInCgLmZAPyOQ4ayuDjANKhuHyt6jIrKIx1sluDstHh07VtoLUWoxfwQnV7fW7-Ycyq3yRDMUAIo0YDOcSSsoEweUOeaFUcsdmv7h5w3e5-kFZsgosnwPSQZUuyrRb5IWGxZOvxodCY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="484" height="401" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjTGRlxG5b0hK4Ql2ItQ_nGrpU5lFlTLgAfjC0Ga4uI4o3lNjVQZInCgLmZAPyOQ4ayuDjANKhuHyt6jIrKIx1sluDstHh07VtoLUWoxfwQnV7fW7-Ycyq3yRDMUAIo0YDOcSSsoEweUOeaFUcsdmv7h5w3e5-kFZsgosnwPSQZUuyrRb5IWGxZOvxodCY=w458-h401" width="458" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>July 2023 R</b><b>eturns: 6.00%</b></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 27.75%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 81.69%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">From June to July, the biggest mover in the portfolio would be Centurion and Powermatic Data.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">On the results / business updates front, TC Auto has once again done it again as they continue to publish a profit warning. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><b>YTD Returns looks satisfactory</b> as the portfolio continues to try its best after a bad 2022. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Across this month, I have attended the Centurion SGX Sharing as well as the Powermatic AGM. I have been very impressed with both sessions and it has enforced my believe in holding these 2 positions in the portfolio</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Particularly with Powermatic, i like their idea of finally taking steps to attempt to realize the value of the building. At least we can tell that the finishing line for this value appreciation would be in 2-4 years time. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">For the year that has just past, i believe Powermatic Data did well despite having to do some impairments for orders that was done 2 years ago. They have also explained that the orders were pushed back and 30+% of the inventory has been cleared and therefore 1 can expect some one-off improvements in gross profit for that portion of inventory cleared.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Moving forward, with the chip situation alleviated, i believe it would reduce inventory risk for the company.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">While not everyone might have been convinced with the takeaways from the AGM, i took away more positives than negatives.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">With all companies apart from Powermatic Data and KSH reporting in August, it will likely be volatile days ahead for the portfolio.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I have decided to deploy the 2% idle cash into Huationg Global. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">The update portfolio would look as follows.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfhyFzM0Sze6x-8QD2yaROG0567DFsOqBTHwVQNeW3TsHYK6iVIPVpBv06K17vl3Pnu0cqBb5gGhnW01YWxuk4JfCnxm3nkAyY2bZ1XFbP2FvnZzuphZNZdHU0_0pF5n5yaD5F6fipM1pOmCA9D3FESYLUn28pID9j7LyvTISkYdVRXBX_Rdw0cRIWF-o" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="486" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfhyFzM0Sze6x-8QD2yaROG0567DFsOqBTHwVQNeW3TsHYK6iVIPVpBv06K17vl3Pnu0cqBb5gGhnW01YWxuk4JfCnxm3nkAyY2bZ1XFbP2FvnZzuphZNZdHU0_0pF5n5yaD5F6fipM1pOmCA9D3FESYLUn28pID9j7LyvTISkYdVRXBX_Rdw0cRIWF-o=w442-h386" width="442" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-31429175675795220432023-07-07T10:16:00.000-07:002023-07-07T10:16:04.947-07:003 Stocks i would consider if suddenly spare money appeared<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">As a filler post, i would be sharing 3 stocks that are not in my portfolio currently that i would consider if suddenly someone appeared with spare money and asked me to buy something that is not in my portfolio currently. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">I have posted them on facebook for easier viewing so i will just attach the hyperlink below.</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">1) Lam Soon HK (HKEX: 411) </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02sgF3AxyhCMwvdBUhXi7p19LctELHFHGWwczaYkEVGfspUihXcfmbvu2hvbRVQiEVl&id=100084734274006" target="_blank">Facebook Post can be found here</a></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">2) Chu Kong Shipping (HKEX:560) </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid037WHKvbPez1jRUw6iBPYEyYGFuxKCyqpUfiRp3oKaRj1SLC41SRnry43dPeTW8djEl&id=100084734274006&__cft__[0]=AZXo5r89q2illPj0zoJAookbTOdFY3Uc8-wQGhG1-TBBdDUFhlqKn_FIq-fYS7_VPgNWW6ErvpUkcNUu-BGTAj9FVKfCCwa8Ptfl1co4SJJKuy7vprlIYc7L3cS-ox2K69XkyTUUg3-ARk1ckA_y9R7dFy3_A436LusPQ-Xa_RMFd6EaxlHO_W3N_qiI4LIccNM&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R" target="_blank">Facebook Post can be found here</a></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">3) Baguio Green (Hkex: 1397). <a href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02XCh57vMJGLwbSmrvB1u6hgWMFx2aQYzmpUaZVFYLrXP6Bb82aAPjvXM4Kf2KQGA8l&id=100084734274006" target="_blank">Facebook Post can be found here</a></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><u>Ranking them in terms of Balance Sheet, </u></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">1) Lam Soon as it has lots of spare cash</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2) Chu Kong Shipping as its cash covers liabilities </span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">3) Baguio as it has borrowings and current ratio looks dangerous</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><u>Ranking them in terms of Earnings Estimation (Self)</u></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">1) Baguio as it has contracts on hand </span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2) Lam Soon as i strongly believe they have hit the floor in their recent half year results </span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">3) Chu Kong as they have many segments and have wide earnings volatility</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">To sum up the 3 companies in terms of the rabbit and turtle race,</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Lam Soon - A Grand-Uncle Level Ninja Turtle that just got heavily smacked by a rock but survived</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Baguio - A Ninja Turtle that has overtook a rabbit (Johnson Holdings) by showing its quality.</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Chu Kong - Rabbits and Turtle mixed together, its hard to tell if it has more rabbit and turtle or not. Cause if it does well for 1H 2023, its totally understandable and likely on the back of the sea tourism travel between HK, Macau, China. But if it does not, it is likely due to other segments volatility and profitability level has not been reached for its sea tourism.</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Time for some non stock related k-pop picture spam...........</span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiV-bTBu9rtP_hy2UiHqzUNy6A_S071sRsKFSxWiZUMF6otGOS4wUp2NMPXQQSxBX0rNNIMj98UGkCfra5AQup9QmaxZ6vVuGcj8-Mlofk308rgUfBH8IZJUQFD_1cnUCtLv2wx63bxu-I3nVmRmPqh3DcSFvuOsQOFyN4N9B9yOpOpnyeH-FrzQvOXXlo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="560" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiV-bTBu9rtP_hy2UiHqzUNy6A_S071sRsKFSxWiZUMF6otGOS4wUp2NMPXQQSxBX0rNNIMj98UGkCfra5AQup9QmaxZ6vVuGcj8-Mlofk308rgUfBH8IZJUQFD_1cnUCtLv2wx63bxu-I3nVmRmPqh3DcSFvuOsQOFyN4N9B9yOpOpnyeH-FrzQvOXXlo=w315-h560" width="315" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgvP4r5OySJP7rudlKLbsZpvk2PxJsJnAosnK47BZTS2EA0-mkGLfJXVrJZZhMNRYyVgE8Lr0zN7zq6vbxl0smpvTDHH1iukXDkAUZFXcCB_TfW3k2dmb99RVSqnJAumNnL3GJNE8_avYO9Ep35KKeJuAbu9THvTpG0XzOdXzP5APnMw--D5UjeI0scOLk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2252" data-original-width="4000" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgvP4r5OySJP7rudlKLbsZpvk2PxJsJnAosnK47BZTS2EA0-mkGLfJXVrJZZhMNRYyVgE8Lr0zN7zq6vbxl0smpvTDHH1iukXDkAUZFXcCB_TfW3k2dmb99RVSqnJAumNnL3GJNE8_avYO9Ep35KKeJuAbu9THvTpG0XzOdXzP5APnMw--D5UjeI0scOLk=w574-h322" width="574" /></a></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPGM8VMsMRh_2zseHpad3mHRQitiH_7bXE4kKcY5snuHLT3UztlxNXDQVxEuSBFwz_YTuwzards2Z6h7G0PU9tjrO58svLeHjEcaZvU7hX3_1yDU-xJGdLk3bfCZA-DH5jtC4hVTuZzlZKXVQHN0AiLuz00VkpbIBU0tsZmcxXD9TRlFfYl9DghljFpas" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2252" data-original-width="4000" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPGM8VMsMRh_2zseHpad3mHRQitiH_7bXE4kKcY5snuHLT3UztlxNXDQVxEuSBFwz_YTuwzards2Z6h7G0PU9tjrO58svLeHjEcaZvU7hX3_1yDU-xJGdLk3bfCZA-DH5jtC4hVTuZzlZKXVQHN0AiLuz00VkpbIBU0tsZmcxXD9TRlFfYl9DghljFpas=w575-h324" width="575" /></a></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhh-r4haL1jIsSLz-nc2igLd8o-kshP4sO0vNIC642pm3vAn6FFd1RoZJFcbkq3Q65jz2pStLt3ef6vMG_QiBVE8qsfTTZRVT-jwwYrpYYvhiQswkeXIiZVhQkeZ1q1qVOvrHyIeFlTDrcm9bKAY-aTq4Q70tC8WXnQbAyyMFvAhE6N5-33CmTiVgbmxLo" style="margin-left: 1em; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2fHdKAg-DnS_W09nK9ZQR4Gnpm5KjGKNx0whCYeZTmfNhuu_C5y3wPBhCnTTb2Plim5nWYP4GpPOyORXxZTOomVwFlTwpT0JWSAE1FEPvymU_5YyzCEhkjRrQOZEj7zNAAyU4fZh5MRcZHBooAiEooSTm7kUBepI_qwgF9rw9dcrFuLnBFdJGBc8gtUY=w304-h540" width="304" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHRLrVhJPNzZ16kPuFSxWfRXVAnILReDVraXAVebWkXx21RyVHExG3eaoDGz0_h3-QcRfSBahU2mQVwmrJPsH1O2P3OT9tXjjJWcH1LmteF2tt7YvbkvUtM3WPkQBB8wLffiwk4qXQTqudgqvUqighHA4XfS9PDJUpQjarrAPFIorYk3xkRXILkD1-lcs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="2252" height="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHRLrVhJPNzZ16kPuFSxWfRXVAnILReDVraXAVebWkXx21RyVHExG3eaoDGz0_h3-QcRfSBahU2mQVwmrJPsH1O2P3OT9tXjjJWcH1LmteF2tt7YvbkvUtM3WPkQBB8wLffiwk4qXQTqudgqvUqighHA4XfS9PDJUpQjarrAPFIorYk3xkRXILkD1-lcs=w310-h550" width="310" /></a></div><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: Segoe UI Historic, Segoe UI, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-2252389735148460562023-06-30T11:05:00.001-07:002023-06-30T11:05:30.075-07:00(June 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQC9DvUul1eKiIxi_Hibrk2jCKCgdjkahj_7tm60Wh-qIJ1lyF89z5vl9Cxsa8rmb7uH4HACzJy-BbU_rTz-nSxo7Mw8a-ROm7dSHPx8uKyvJlpsf8Owd9cgR6V7Qjjt1c4q70BbXZO7M4aM3-aHThZDsp8utBSzIpH6Y1CWRlv7WOWIFjD86rryRLyY8/s472/AAAC.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="472" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQC9DvUul1eKiIxi_Hibrk2jCKCgdjkahj_7tm60Wh-qIJ1lyF89z5vl9Cxsa8rmb7uH4HACzJy-BbU_rTz-nSxo7Mw8a-ROm7dSHPx8uKyvJlpsf8Owd9cgR6V7Qjjt1c4q70BbXZO7M4aM3-aHThZDsp8utBSzIpH6Y1CWRlv7WOWIFjD86rryRLyY8/w470-h422/AAAC.JPG" width="470" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>June 2023 R</b><b>eturns: 15.13%</b></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 20.52%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 71.40%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">From May to June, the biggest mover in the portfolio would be Huationg Global. The rest of the stock had relatively lesser movements in terms of %. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">On the results / business updates front, there is nothing much to report as there is no results release in June.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">YTD, the STI Index is down around 1.39% and in June it is up around 1.49%. Just relieved that the results this year has been much more pleasing compared to the poor results seen in 2022 where i clocked a -16.56% performance.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">July and August should see more volatility ahead as results release is upcoming and speculating of results might occur as well. </div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-69465408835470717582023-06-27T03:18:00.001-07:002023-06-27T03:18:26.183-07:00Recent Actions<p> The past few months have seen some changes in my portfolio. Will just jot down the changes and the reasons (shortened version) for the changes. </p><p>Should i be able to find some time i will consider writing a longer version of certain changes</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiW9jBk6a2_bc2ocU1Z_S2slL0xD0MD6pVY9t6i-ss6LXvhsjdiV3WwpvUp0I_VKkCfCxO9D4pCIms-5bPkIF3CEBhSf7-_V6RrE3_woeapjHY2W_nuv5YPSAKumnYs6SWsO4kPYC4acuNmYMvPO_lsqemn-ZeNcAYBbPKW82O9IooGEMiZ5bBsHbehCAw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1200" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiW9jBk6a2_bc2ocU1Z_S2slL0xD0MD6pVY9t6i-ss6LXvhsjdiV3WwpvUp0I_VKkCfCxO9D4pCIms-5bPkIF3CEBhSf7-_V6RrE3_woeapjHY2W_nuv5YPSAKumnYs6SWsO4kPYC4acuNmYMvPO_lsqemn-ZeNcAYBbPKW82O9IooGEMiZ5bBsHbehCAw" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">(1 of the associates of my recent additions)</div><br /><p></p><p><u>Removals</u></p><p><b>Ossia Intl </b>- Following a result that has met expectations, the share price has increased by over 20% from the results release. As i have only initiated positions since March my average price is around 0.12x.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo_yZjfrl5DXvDcewu2tF9G3N7BMEY1-aEarJkY4CfnGjXqtlbrBxcue3_uSUZBL2oyVzZEiJiEjlQM24kZuDqEOrtxl88_8Y3MQbDsRLeSx7Fa9DFRCwgFe--h8s-n8O8Do4rEqwwMHt9wbiVC2P-r7QyZw4VmrUvTLbz0XDsq7fBPSC0Lse1dAEn3ms" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="689" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgo_yZjfrl5DXvDcewu2tF9G3N7BMEY1-aEarJkY4CfnGjXqtlbrBxcue3_uSUZBL2oyVzZEiJiEjlQM24kZuDqEOrtxl88_8Y3MQbDsRLeSx7Fa9DFRCwgFe--h8s-n8O8Do4rEqwwMHt9wbiVC2P-r7QyZw4VmrUvTLbz0XDsq7fBPSC0Lse1dAEn3ms=w451-h307" width="451" /></a></div>Stripping aside the presidential bid craze and all, the dividend yield of 10.5% and PE of 4.3 is attractive. However considering Harvey Norman has a PE of 5.3, expected retail environment to be tough as well as my intention to channel limited funds to something else, i have decided to divest it and review the company 3 months later.<p></p><p>It is fair to say that the estimation was on the lower end of my expectations as well.</p><p><b>AAG Energy</b> - With the offer at 1.85 approved, i have divested on the last day of trading at 1.83 as the 1+ months wait would be too long for myself as i have decided to take a risk and try to use the funds to do channel to something else.</p><p><b>Central China Management </b>- I only have less than 2% of my networth in this stock but i have decided to clear the deadweight anyway. This brings an end to any involvement i have with central china stocks for the time being. As such i can keep lesser eyes on the property market and more on other stocks in my portfolio. The final divestment was done in May at a price of 0.415. Price as of 27 June is 0.335 so guess i am right in the short run for now.</p><p><u>Additions</u></p><p>When in doubt, just add things in your portfolio. Yup that is what i did so the usual suspects have seen an increase in their positions. However, there is one new addition to the list.</p><p>Yeebo International (Hkex: 284) - A company that has its own business that has shown improvement in bottomline in the past years. Financially healthy and way below book value as the associates it holds has far outweigh the market value. </p><p>Being associates, they contribute to the company's bottom line as well which has improved over the years. </p><p>As a whole, it is trading at 0.3 to its book value. With some divestments done in 2022 to its associates, it remains to be seen if the same will happen in 2023 but since its associates are recording better profits, it will benefit slowly as well if it chooses not to sell the golden goose to the market.</p><p>I have took up a stake following proceeds of AAG Energy. I foresee adding more when the company divest more of its associates shareholding or when the associates report better results and have a good roadmap being executed. But for now, buy some and observe and if by luck anything delightful pops up then its all good.</p><p>Dream International, Mainland Holdings and Huationg Global which has already been in my portfolio are the other additions. To sum each addition in 5 and less points each.......</p><p><b>Dream International</b></p><p>-Weak US Orders Expected due to Funko Q1 Earnings Poor and Full Year Expected to be Weak.</p><p>-Betting on the increased orders from Disney Japan and China.</p><p>-Increased expansion and hiring through Covid shows faith in business</p><p>-Good Dividends, best financial health in years and below book value</p><p>-IR replied, while quality of answer might not be the best but it will suffice.</p><p><b>Mainland Holdings</b></p><p>-New Factory came into production in May, will observe how the production and margins improve</p><p>-Guided double digit growth for 2023 in Dec 2022. To see if this plays out</p><p>-Factory in Bangladesh being lauded for success of OBOR and Common Prosperity </p><p>-Reputable Management, Hosting of Key Customers to new factor in May .</p><p>-Hiring of Jap Language Knowledge Staff might indicate new customer / market as jap revenue is low now.</p><p><b>Huationg Global</b></p><p>-High Risk Stock, Financial Statements and Audited Reports actually look difference with huge disparity.</p><p>-Red Flag of CFO Leaving adds to the high risk. Although removing a CFO that prepares statements with disparity from audited reports does make some sense</p><p>-Inland Logistics Support related to construction activity showing strength. With projects lasting 1 year, can we expect results to sustain this year? Hopefully.</p><p>-Possible Divestment of Office might be catalyst as in the audited report, the sale value > book value.</p><p>-Dormitory revenue low compared to peers. Might see a catch-up or higher amount this year due to demand supply factors?</p>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-84143645303635772252023-06-07T09:23:00.000-07:002023-06-07T09:23:11.195-07:00Premium Brand Trading at Less than 10 PE. A Buy?<p>The computer is back up so i will celebrate by posting a post.</p><p>As the title goes, today's stock focus will be on Honma Golf (Hkex: 6858)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTll4zuyKAu4ysZvBICK6lW5xeog_uE81X-JmLnxLV8E43aHZ7U21_Zgc7vGqjSKtNGXVmSv_Nj64uM8lzeUXa8NC_NoWyv6tn9GO1vpK7yr1kh1e306xF9JgD35MNFvaIlLKK7Sytr4JXDuJKh6u1JPqH89xOCuzoRtudv0gR9_1DtXXkUUuhGyMa" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTll4zuyKAu4ysZvBICK6lW5xeog_uE81X-JmLnxLV8E43aHZ7U21_Zgc7vGqjSKtNGXVmSv_Nj64uM8lzeUXa8NC_NoWyv6tn9GO1vpK7yr1kh1e306xF9JgD35MNFvaIlLKK7Sytr4JXDuJKh6u1JPqH89xOCuzoRtudv0gR9_1DtXXkUUuhGyMa" width="240" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>Honma Golf is considered to be a small player in the golf industry and a premium brand by many. A video of their golf club making can be found on youtube.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HSMT5eZv7lA" width="378" youtube-src-id="HSMT5eZv7lA"></iframe></div><br /><p></p><div><u>Layman Technical Analysis</u></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZ4NuqjmRNAE97yAmm4CHUCjnK6S3VuZXsUbwVO9KlbfwHp5OMx31amcz8HEbbOknLGZ11Ad-btBawdsLWCkS2kd7D_XFYa-HUGzoF7Awjzxp2jf_MQDEOSQjVh_IfsU9PFi6IFvjX6HtpPBxZYhU0_f2kysB88EVmQi2hamyoB0X8PwziFYoubai6" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="697" height="431" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZ4NuqjmRNAE97yAmm4CHUCjnK6S3VuZXsUbwVO9KlbfwHp5OMx31amcz8HEbbOknLGZ11Ad-btBawdsLWCkS2kd7D_XFYa-HUGzoF7Awjzxp2jf_MQDEOSQjVh_IfsU9PFi6IFvjX6HtpPBxZYhU0_f2kysB88EVmQi2hamyoB0X8PwziFYoubai6=w550-h431" width="550" /></a></div><br />Looking at the 5 years price chart, the stock has came down close to 66%. Looking at the current price, it seems to be trading at close to 5 year lows.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>Financials</u></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0-x9f-JY9m3SwOzU9WoXYzuVMqfTHGx3S9wWV4ybV0DcUCtLszixqv33AwhxVpn70NlioUaEcy4vWLwMtqqfHxHHQ7rn98ic1mtnHj4kqKkXL7K7vexu3FdMCkspsC0gqdbYguNdrKM3Xx_AdnvQdsYnUa41NYQQm5gFbQI1MnNm3U68VU-1eIk6Y" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="407" data-original-width="927" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0-x9f-JY9m3SwOzU9WoXYzuVMqfTHGx3S9wWV4ybV0DcUCtLszixqv33AwhxVpn70NlioUaEcy4vWLwMtqqfHxHHQ7rn98ic1mtnHj4kqKkXL7K7vexu3FdMCkspsC0gqdbYguNdrKM3Xx_AdnvQdsYnUa41NYQQm5gFbQI1MnNm3U68VU-1eIk6Y=w576-h252" width="576" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Looking at its revenue and income trends, it does not have a stable trend and it has been affected during 2020 and 2021 as well. What is worth noting is that it has made a good recovery in 2022 to pre-covid levels.</div><div><br /></div><div>As of 2022 FY, its operating earnings is around 0.4 HKD, this translates to a pe of around 8.3 at current price of 3.32.</div><div><br /></div><div>Reasons to consider this stock</div><div><br /></div><div>1) Growth in revenue of golf club. 1 of its most important source of revenue, golf clubs have seen a growth in revenue under constant currency basis. Traditionally, 1H has been lower in revenue so there is a good chance that if the momentum continues, the company could see record earnings in this FY.</div><div><br />Mizuno's golf department recorded an increase of around 30% from April 2022 to March 2023. As such, i believe that Honma has some chance of doing well as well.</div><div><br /></div><div>2) Golf as a sport. In the past i have the idea that golf is for the rich due to the need to book a golf course, hire caddies etc. But as technology and more mainstream golf has been introduced, folks can now play golf at simulators first as well as tee-up at driving ranges before going onto playing golf course golfs. As such, the market has opened up with the use of technology. These simulators are also available as 'club try outs' as players can now tee up at the stimulators to see if the golf clubs are suitable for them before purchasing it.</div><div><br /></div><div>I believe the introduction of technology in Golf will allow Honma to have higher brand awareness as folks can try their club before deciding to buy it, Honma being an expensive brand would deter others to purchase and try it in the past without such simulators.</div><div><br /></div><div>3) Small Market Share Compared to Industry.</div><div><br /></div><div>In 2022, the golf club revenue came in at around 200 million SGD. This is similar to Mizuho (244 million SGD) but small compared to others like Callaway (1777 million SGD) and Titleist (748 million SGD)</div><div><br /></div><div>As such, it is less likely to be affected by any headwinds and more of the revenue will be focused on its execution.</div><div><br /></div><div>Lastly, the internal target / guidance given at the recent half year result release will be 10+% target in growth in revenue while keeping net profit at 25% Margin. </div><div><br /></div><div><u>Reasons to not consider this stock</u></div><div><br /></div><div>1) Choppy Earnings - As the yen has been depreciating against many currencies, this has resulted in net profit to be very volatile. As such, it is more important to consider the operating profit instead. Should yen continue to depreciate further, the company would be worth lesser as well as its balance sheet since it is traded in HKD.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgCj_6lUKpXblEagohWINqk8boLmybssppQTH1gBtWo-fEp52Jqc1ocbtBDsz-Wz3yRKuwkTNTdIzpdilhXCm3oisBuqQiAGr0XyZhK2k9mLjHkCfkGOSPvEU6D4Wp0EFS5yYZN8AxC5SrqBbGcHuyIBWvNm0-vUOEYVL6j-I812TMVNFElXxWS9Yci" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="701" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgCj_6lUKpXblEagohWINqk8boLmybssppQTH1gBtWo-fEp52Jqc1ocbtBDsz-Wz3yRKuwkTNTdIzpdilhXCm3oisBuqQiAGr0XyZhK2k9mLjHkCfkGOSPvEU6D4Wp0EFS5yYZN8AxC5SrqBbGcHuyIBWvNm0-vUOEYVL6j-I812TMVNFElXxWS9Yci=w552-h381" width="552" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>2) China and Korea are the biggest markets. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWGQpg7KdC10YsNc-9tHsBRxIIBCNlMrRmmJGe8iwY5smXiIDwocmzkGItWNis0bDzku5A2sWdUKm353mbOca5Q8RwYxvYmTtqLR5MzByVGqqbfjtHeoGc0oR9J9SZ3r9xB8PUvdLlRuHIhClnId5_CG2ShVxSOlrAFV_o6ZjGMd3ZkmQXQ-8kyFyN" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="732" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWGQpg7KdC10YsNc-9tHsBRxIIBCNlMrRmmJGe8iwY5smXiIDwocmzkGItWNis0bDzku5A2sWdUKm353mbOca5Q8RwYxvYmTtqLR5MzByVGqqbfjtHeoGc0oR9J9SZ3r9xB8PUvdLlRuHIhClnId5_CG2ShVxSOlrAFV_o6ZjGMd3ZkmQXQ-8kyFyN=w575-h382" width="575" /></a></div>This can be seen in 2 ways. Firstly, golf in Korea and China are both fast growing and under penetrated.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, i think it might be a concern as China has seen soft consumption since 2023 while Korea's rapid growth might not be repeated and even see declines. Golfzon, a indoor golf simulator provider has seen a revenue decrease of close to 20%. Similarly, a post by Invest Chosun has mentioned about the headwinds in the golf market in Korea in 2023.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgv1s5KsomP6-qkWApVBvHPf0luXfZmm3GvXf_dFseNViwKUus0qOno_1txo6QcsiQul3hpwsJz9iu3w7bsmBMqA7S9GuCSDxbmntx-zTVkJM-FwpH0poLnnKe4RSFW2xZgvoPC9ZQjVOKsKNxM8EXavNs0X2fQw-BwfwrTwnwDdiQi5dL4GXia6BJi" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="799" height="523" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgv1s5KsomP6-qkWApVBvHPf0luXfZmm3GvXf_dFseNViwKUus0qOno_1txo6QcsiQul3hpwsJz9iu3w7bsmBMqA7S9GuCSDxbmntx-zTVkJM-FwpH0poLnnKe4RSFW2xZgvoPC9ZQjVOKsKNxM8EXavNs0X2fQw-BwfwrTwnwDdiQi5dL4GXia6BJi=w541-h523" width="541" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoRxMXiTfvhFxVjWf1AQpgMkpfJZm0CKgbSQXv3DeAyotKBKWlgUjKVOWWJnRLksSFUbXFtXobyHByEKvdIwEGi6N4_86-33-GDTdDDkG-OggYXCqCdsPJiDYrWsceGI_GF3-HdLIaxC4UpJ4Wf1YK2nVI6xJS-44ZZ8n2nNiQ_qGmZe0_OAukT8pm" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="640" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoRxMXiTfvhFxVjWf1AQpgMkpfJZm0CKgbSQXv3DeAyotKBKWlgUjKVOWWJnRLksSFUbXFtXobyHByEKvdIwEGi6N4_86-33-GDTdDDkG-OggYXCqCdsPJiDYrWsceGI_GF3-HdLIaxC4UpJ4Wf1YK2nVI6xJS-44ZZ8n2nNiQ_qGmZe0_OAukT8pm=w542-h335" width="542" /></a></div><span style="text-align: left;">Nevertheless, these are operating difficulties that the company has to navigate through.</span><br /><br /></div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>3) Inventory a Big Problem </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9FR-fpUHKs1lj6pcMevQ447Zn69Wi4YtDSSYp918qKeZ2tuQQay9TgE_egpxK0IguAfod5box3Pt1ba8p0uB7cNiuzopCXvHndFjNf2_00m0UFahhVo_VbpsNWSGuTaZTqYHvo14fhf_vm4jafpGOq7yF7be_xoi5kkxOGHVcONaDeamCwdt9y_nd" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="718" height="383" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9FR-fpUHKs1lj6pcMevQ447Zn69Wi4YtDSSYp918qKeZ2tuQQay9TgE_egpxK0IguAfod5box3Pt1ba8p0uB7cNiuzopCXvHndFjNf2_00m0UFahhVo_VbpsNWSGuTaZTqYHvo14fhf_vm4jafpGOq7yF7be_xoi5kkxOGHVcONaDeamCwdt9y_nd=w528-h383" width="528" /></a></div>Inventory is around 6 months of Revenue. Provisions have also increased by 50% across a span of 1 year.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhewpfn35epNnPfOKZI0bMrXa74Av3znRVoArlJy_sgrddoHEmM59INB-FZfekdyVY3a1W8FUKvbObHPh1QlUOvHL5hanRRv4eY4o50ARCbjpYaPu2UCWRMVSHnh0kLRPpX8iQBRozpaB-nshMx5HAiQyGW5T5X06itFUoVZxipYkrsak-ZykLUW_FZ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="706" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhewpfn35epNnPfOKZI0bMrXa74Av3znRVoArlJy_sgrddoHEmM59INB-FZfekdyVY3a1W8FUKvbObHPh1QlUOvHL5hanRRv4eY4o50ARCbjpYaPu2UCWRMVSHnh0kLRPpX8iQBRozpaB-nshMx5HAiQyGW5T5X06itFUoVZxipYkrsak-ZykLUW_FZ=w536-h381" width="536" /></a></div>The company also does not have a good record in clearing inventory. </div><div>2.2 million out of 4.4 million fresh inventory was cleared in the first year resulting in 2.2 mil brought over.</div><div>Out of 3.4 million (1-2 years) inventory, only 855k inventory was cleared resulting in 2.5 million brought over.</div><div><br /></div><div>As such, there is a probability on increased provisions.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><u>Conclusion</u></div><div><br /></div><div>Premium Brand, Healthy Balance Sheet but revenue and inventory remains a concern that the company has to overcome. The fall in share price to a single digit PE is probably justified given the concerns of the company.<br /><br /></div><div>Given that peers like Callaway and Acushnet trade at 15 to 25 PE, Honma is definitely undervalued at 8.3 PE.</div><div><br /></div><div>Unfortunately given the current landscape and how other golfing peers have performed from Oct 2022 to March 2023, i believe the 2H growth might be cap at 10-15% max. </div><div><br /></div><div>Having said that, the company is still small and has ample abilities to make up for the macro headwinds. If the share price is anything to show for, it shows that the company has depressed investors more often than not.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-28009854966785886962023-06-05T22:22:00.000-07:002023-06-05T22:23:05.251-07:00Temporary Halting Updating of Blog Post and FB Page<div>Will not be able to update for both fb page and blog due to my pc has broken down and will need to be repaired/ replaced.<br></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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</div><br><br>See ya till then.<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4797600041937589789.post-28173496334396818392023-05-31T04:36:00.005-07:002023-05-31T04:36:47.713-07:00(May 2023 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg7smrW-Pi_HSoRWkX9lV5LxEq6Dsp_K1ThMQlAjt9en3ff3OQ3bvuSAbh0GFiM1pcDqddU7ZiNJP7vZY1D3jgHJz00nCUH8f4DUCqRTbY57XvcI9kQDOnSplmiQeY73O223nDPdFbzu6Du8-ncsTCMSnOWl8aCfXB3qzNM34jmyeplEbSvRp01p0Ga" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="604" height="399" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg7smrW-Pi_HSoRWkX9lV5LxEq6Dsp_K1ThMQlAjt9en3ff3OQ3bvuSAbh0GFiM1pcDqddU7ZiNJP7vZY1D3jgHJz00nCUH8f4DUCqRTbY57XvcI9kQDOnSplmiQeY73O223nDPdFbzu6Du8-ncsTCMSnOWl8aCfXB3qzNM34jmyeplEbSvRp01p0Ga=w519-h399" width="519" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b>May 2023 R</b><b>eturns: -3.56%</b></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Year to Date Returns: 10.67%</b></div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 57.40%</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><br /></b></div><div><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Nothing surprising as Propnex crashed in the first week of May, fortunately i took some profits off. In other aspects, UMS guided for softening quarters ahead while the general sti is also down in May.</p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">On the results / business updates front, Centurion released acceptable numbers. Powermatic released good numbers as well, i covered it on my <a href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02KViFLeTcHwVKQos6aRvgUVfxune7szcZmi7tkirxvgSuCq2fHk5Df2aKWvhB67nol&id=103411192498436">facebook post</a></p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">Poor Consumption Numbers from China but i think it would be better to ride it out then to change it to something else for the current moment. </p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;">I will take some time to think about it if there is a need to change anything.</p><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><br /></p></div></div></div>zzxbzzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15541589752567515989noreply@blogger.com0