Q1 2026 Portfolio Returns - 5.02%

 

(I love to talk about my returns when they are bad because it is when its fun and reality is not every year is good)

Positives

-5.02% is higher than HSI Returns

-Some short term flipping positions are positive and worked well (Metasurface, XMH, IGG, AV Concept)

- Current Cash position of at least 15% represents opportunity to fire.

Negatives

-Returns lack behind STI (Better off buying STI)

-Sg Stocks Returns Negative 

-Top 3 Positions in SGX performance unsatisfactory thus far (Nam Lee 5% YTD. Hor Kew down 10+%. Infinity Dev Flat.

-Certain Positions remain Illiquid

-Front Loaded Hor Kew ahead of results backfired.

Thoughts on 1Q 26

-Flipping Short Term Holdings saved the portfolio. It makes me wonder if i should allocate a larger portion to this.

Positions Review (From largest holding to smallest holding)

1) Infinity Development - Export of Footwear remain positive in Indonesia and Vietnam. Albeit dropping from double digits to single digit. Largest Customer (Yue Yuen) has signaled some shipment woes but Infinity's top customer share has fallen to 19.7% in recent FY compared to 24% in FY 2022. On the more global end, running shoes remain their double digit growth. Seen in Adidas performance and Nike Running

As a whole, i think -10% to +10% revenue growth is likely the case for the upcoming results. Any larger increase / decrease will be how they are able to capture market share.

Margins as a whole should be fine as the oil price increase came in only in March. It might be worth to take a look at their inventory to see if there is any significant increase.

Ending off, the company surprised with a share buyback of 2% issued shares that is at a price of 2.43 to 2.53 HKD. From a corporate finance point of view, this makes 0 sense. The dual listing price is 2.32 HKD. The SG shares are traded cheaper than the buyback price.

They could have bought it cheaper in the sgx but yea.

The total amount used in share buyback is like 2.62 million SGD. If used in sgx, they could buy 6.6 million shares.

This should create a short term floor for the stock. It seems like whenever the drop in HK fell to 2.4x level, the invisible buyback hand strikes. Still, all eyes on the result in May

2) Hor Kew - Will await the AGM (likely April) before deciding if any reduction in stake is required.

3) Chuan Holdings - Illiquid + Lack of Dividends. 3.3 PE. Better 2H Profits (12.8M) vs 1H (6.1M) , 24% Earthworks Segment Margin (highest revenue source) an improvement from 2H 24 (18.28%) and 1H 25 (20.81%) Order book of around 2-3 years. Reduced Gearing. I think its cool to see if they can build on the better earthwork margins in 2H 25. Although orderbook of 415m is a reduction from 1H 25 of 453m and 427m in 2H 24, they have won a 36m project in Jan 2026. This improves the orderbook back up. Staff increase from 654 in 1H 25 to 724 in 2H 25 is also a possible show of increase of demand.

4) Nam Lee Metal - I am actually keen to add more on this stock given the retracement to levels seen at the start of the year. I believe 1H 2025 will be strong as seen in Vicplas Pipe Segment. I did not see any news that might affect them (which is why i am puzzled with the decrease to a 6x PE). 

5) Engro - Just deep undervalued play compared to Pan United in terms of earnings. VC Funds related to AI has surprised in 2025 and remains to be seen if it will surprise again in 2026. Negatives will be its bleeding China Operations that mask the profitability of the company. Will review again after AGM in April (Likely).

6) Solis Holding - Illiquid + Lack of Dividends. 

Apart from that, the company is turning around in its financials. 

Other Income mainly came from their Joint Venture Management Fee. It is a JV Project for a 139.75 million which will end in Sept 2026.

Revenue in 2026 is expected to be 4 times of 2025. They won 2 LTA Projects in April 2025 which led to the maintenance revenue increasing. They followed up with some wins as overall revenue in 1 year improved to 78m at 2H 25 vs 1H 25.

Coupled with the JV Project wrapping up, it is likely that their best profitability will come in 1H 2026 / 2H 2026

Current Market Cap is 228.9M HKD.

NAV is 438.3M HKD.

Coupled with possibly record profitability in 2026 and 2027/2028 order books looking healthy, it looks too undervalued to me.

In Ever Glory's recent corporate seminar , they also acknowledged Solis as a competitor in some M&E Segments such as LTA Projects (this reduces their possibility of being a fake company)

A Check on Gebiz also reaffirms as they are one of the bidders in recent projects.

In terms of balance sheet, currently the financial assets + cash is close to the total liabilities and covered the current liabilities.

Add to the recent announcement of a possible disposal of property (slated to be completed in 2027) at $21m SGD. This will make the company more cash rich.

Review of top 5 stocks that i think will do well vs not do well.

Do Well (Post can be found here)

Nagacorp - Q4 is really bad actually. The revenue came down much to a negative surprise. I believe the dip in share price is a result of this. As tourism numbers are quarterly, we will only know 1Q 2026 in 1-2 months.

San Mig Brew- 2H 25 is operationally profitable. Turned around from 2H 24 losses. Cash Rich, conservative 30% payout. Nothing to be unhappy about the results.

Perennial Intl - 2H 25 was weaker than 1H 25 as expected due to frontloading. Way below book value and has good cash vs liabilities.

Chuan Holdings - I have wrote about it above so not writing again.

Mainland Headwear- Positive Earnings Announcement as expected. Orders Guided to be 30% higher in 2026 so we will have to see if it really happens. 

Not Do Well (Post can be found here)

Not going to talk too much about this cause its not like there is shorting to be done.

At least by avoiding this list, the hit rate is 75%

(March 2026 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

March 2026 Returns: -9.96%

Year to Date Returns: 1.99%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 381.36%

I don't think there is much to mention about as not much have changed over the past 11 days apart from more oil related news.

The interesting thing that happened is probably Infinity Development rebuying over 6.5 million of shares across 2 days. That is around 2% of issued shares and also the 1st buy backs the company has done.

The buy back price (2.44-2.53 HKD) is also higher than the current traded price of 0.39 (2.38 HKD).

(20 March 2026 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

March (Up till 20th March) 2026 Returns: -7.86%

Year to Date Returns: 4.37%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 392.59%

As previously mentioned, i would want to make some changes after reviewing the results that have been released on the last day on Feb.

Its has been quite an interesting March with Oil Prices and Semiconductor Hype taking the centrepiece in SGX.

Meanwhile we have seen retracement in other companies which have shown some ytd gains.

I think the big problem that i am thinking is whether we should accept the higher PE of semiconductors / should we get in to the oil exposure / should we cut the overall oil exposure in the portfolio.

It feels like i am going back to 2015 when i just started investing or the 2022 situation. 

But of course its just a feels and its not 10 years series investing where we do what we did at that point of time all is ok.

I took a look at Union Gas but no it will not be added into the portfolio list. From a fundamental analysis point of view, i don't see why we should be buying into it when the liquid fuel segment is loss making in 2H 2025 and 1H 2025.

Its profit making segment is actually gas fuel which did not do well when oil prices are higher in 2022. That was when natural gas is expensive which affected its business too.

I took a look at Ever Glory and also attended their corporate insights (open to public). The Q&A segment was quite insightful. Overall tone is positive. Does not expect much impact to oil prices. Expects revenue and profitablity to be much higher in 2026 as well compared to 2025. 

At a market cap of 282m. Stripping of Other Income, 2H 25 Earnings came in at say around 6m? Even if it doubles and we do like 24m in 2026. Its still 12 PE. Which to me feels inflated.

I think it would be weird to end the post by saying things are down 7% and i feel good and nothing needs to be changed and lets move on. That would sound lazy. 

So the changes are as follows.

Removals 

Far East Orchard - Slowing growth in UK PBSA Segment. 

Trimmed XMH Slightly to frontload.

Additions

Reclaims Global is a speculative position on the back of the positive profit announcement and the slight retracement.

Info-Tech Systems is a new initiation. I think that the academy's 12.3m revenue in 2H 2025 might actually be a new growth engine as more people learn about AI. Subscription revenue is steadily increasing at 13%.

At least the use of AI tells me that the 13800 increase in 2H 2025 is still a low number compared to the amount of people who actually takes skillfuture.

(Deep Dive) Hor Kew FY 2025 Results - A big dilemma and crossroads

Hor Kew (SGX: BBP) reported its 2025 full year results on 27 Feb (After Trading Hours)

I figured that i should release this post before trading reopens on 2 March to give some insights to how i go about thinking about the results.

On first glance, it definitely looks bad as revenue fell, gross profit margin fell, total profit fell and the company is unprofitable if receivables gain and other income is excluded.

I did a deep dive on its results breakdown and looked at the results at least a good 3 times to think about whether i should be selling out from this position.

If you are interested to see how i attempt to deep dive , do read on.

1) Finding out if the items on the balance sheet are likely recurrent or one-offs.

From the above, we try to find out what the likely profit excluding one-offs will be. Items like rental income are kept in the calculation while others like the gain on trade receivables , and other income portions are excluded. It is worth noting depreciation has increased which would eat into margins.

Bad Debts and Restoration Cost are excluded in the calculation as they are one-offs

Lastly, we estimate some increase in depreciation and finance cost due to the increased borrowings from 37.8m to 86.8m and PPE from 32.2m to 91.1m

Summing all up, we have the valuations below

We assumed that the revenue and poorer margins will continue. At current price of 1.31, this is a PE of 12 and PB of 0.72

What can alter the results negatively

1) Increased Restoration Cost. Any potential increase in restoration cost incurred in 1H 2026 will eat into profits

2) Increased Depreciation and Finance Cost. Although there is 300 000 and 200 000 allocated to the already increased depreciation and Finance cost, the increase might not be fully reflected yet. Have to wait till the annual report to know the terms of the loan and lease / machinery depreciation

3) Increased Competition leading to even poorer margins. This part is probably difficult to monitor.

What can alter the results positively

1) Inventory at an all time high since Covid.

I have not checked pre-covid 2018 and before inventory but post covid, it is at its highest.

End of 2025 Inventory of 16.1m is 70% higher than 1H 25 and generally, in the following half year result after a higher inventory, results are better apart from Covid 2020.

Could this signal a significantly higher revenue ahead?

2) Sale of Malaysia Land. 

Estimated at 200rm-250rm (65m to 81m), currently 18 million sgd on the books. The recent increase in borrowings might accelerate the sale of the idle land that has been in the books since 2010s.

3) Commentary on Outlook remains positive.

The commentary for FY 2025 is the same as FY 2024. But in 2025, revenue fell.....so yeah

Food for Thought

This post came out in a search when i was looking at the new lease at Kaki Bukit Road 6.

Seems like Hor Kew is the new operator and joins the 6 ICPH List.

My thought is that the company is going through a change-over phrase. The decision to occupy an ICPH when 2 other previous operators have failed and been vacant for 2 years (despite the construction boom) is really a bold move.

They could have settled for lesser 

I wonder if the lease is 30 years and if any grants been given for this as it is a high upfront cost. The 60m spent is actually cheaper than its peers currently. They might have got a good deal as they do not have to take out everything and rebuild it from scratch.....but the fact its vacant for 2 years has to ring bells to why no one would take it when 'construction boom' is happening.

To refer to a listed peer who has precast operations in SG (ICPH) and MY, it would be Soilbuild which is looking to spin-off its segment.

2H 25 Segment Result Margin for Soilbuild

Singapore: 12.65%

Malaysia: 11.68%

Hor Kew: 17.82%

Conclusion

This is a real cross roads actually. ICPHs have traditionally not done well and have poorer margins. 

The increased inventory and a lower cost ICPH entry along with decent commentary might paint some positive light on results moving forwards.

Along with the future listing of Soilbuild Precast, it might give everyone a valuation uplift and shed more light on the industry outlook currently.

The result is not great and the dividend cut (which is justified given that they have exceeded their 30% debt to asset ratio that they intend to target.)

Along with ICPHs tend to have lower margins.

When it comes to whether i would sell, i believe opportunity cost (which i am seriously bad at) and the post result reactions.

There is probably 3 phrases to think about selling. When markets reopen, When Annual Report is out and AGM is over, When 1H 2026 results is released

Any buying will only be after the AGM minimally for now unless any research report is released.

If it drops too much on reopen, it makes no sense to sell as the analysis has shown that core earnings are positive and there is some positive factors. If they announce the sale of land in the next few months or they guide for good revenue and improvement in margins at the AGM, it would look bad to realise these losses due to knee jerk reactions

Of course, there is every chance the AGM mood is bad and outlook is bad, entering ICPH is the only solution left and 1H 26 is bad. Then selling on open would have looked so much better then.

If it does not drop on re-open, without listening to the management's view during AGM, it remains a story that is made based on the above findings. 

I believe it will fall on open as dividend cut and profit drop is never good news to investors. Based on the positives above, if it falls too much, it makes no sense to sell. But if it does not fall a lot, it might make some sense to sell a portion to allocate to other stocks and review again after AGM.

Selling all is currently not on my mind after the analysis. Because of the deep value (Msia Land), possible increase in production capacity (New ICPH), 70% increase in Inventory (played the most part in the decision).

(February 2026 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

February 2026 Returns: 0.85%

Year to Date Returns: 13.27%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 434.60%

6 Companies reported results. Will start from the most crap one. Will not make any changes to the portfolio as some reported on 27 Feb, will think about it in the next few days/weeks and see if a mid month adjustment or end of month adjustment is needed.

Hor Kew - 2H Results is crap. Revenue is lower and Gross Profit Margin is lower. 2H 2025 Business is actually loss making and profitability is held up by Other Income and Reversal of receivables and contract assets. Dividend has been cut by half as the group increased borrowings due to a new lease. 

Any Bright Spots? Inventory increased from 9.3m in 1H 25 to 16.1m in 2H 25 to cater for higher upcoming deliveries

A reversal in receivables, could it indicate better economic environment?

Overall, it is still a poor result and this is a pivot towards a value stock for now and whether the Msia land will be sold.

Will have to see the Annual Report and AGM to decide if the new lease will contribute more to revenue and whether revenue / margins can improve. The commentary on business part has no mention of poor margins or competition though....

Hong Leong Asia: China Yuchai's poorer than expected result caused a sharp plunge but share price has recovered slightly since then.

Haw Par - Results improved due to better dividend income but healthcare dipped slightly. Otherwise, another stable year

Centurion - The redevelopment to a more management and pipeline based company. Core Profits should be lower in 2026 compared to 2025. The distribution of 1 REIT for every 10 shares will contribute to this lower earnings too.

Far East Orchard - Looks stable

Engro - China JV Losses ruined an otherwise decent results. Investment Gains at a record since 2021 and SG/MY Cement Segment at record revenue and profit since 2021

28 Cm Dive into Engro Corporation (SGX: S44)

As the title suggest, it will be a shallow 28 cm dive into Engro Corporation as a CNY Post.

CNY is a good time for gambling, one of the higher risk stocks that i have screened stocks is the company below.

At a Trailing PE of 13 and book value of 0.48 , Engro Corporation looks attractive in price to book terms and might have attracted some value hunters to take a look at it.

Ownership

Largely owned by Afro-Asia with ties to Ho Bee Investments. In other words, the ownership is the same as the ones who owned Ho Bee Land. In this aspect, the ownership definitely has  credibility as Ho Bee Land has 1.64B Market Cap.

In fact, the company has paid a dividend in the past 5 years. However, equity has stagnated since 2020 and profits are actually lumpy.

Business

I will break their business into 4 parts.

1) Polymer ( Owned Operations in Singapore and Indonesia)

JV in China. 

Owned Operations contribute around 4% of revenue. Its SG and Indo Operations continues to be affected as its SG Plant faces oversupply of polypropylene and Indo plant has just set up in 2024 and mass production/ customer traction takes time. Fortunately, the JV in China has turned profitable in FY 2024 and has carried the momentum in 2025 1H.

For this segment, making around 1m for 2025 would be ideal.

2) Specialty Cement (China)

This is listed under JV of Cement and Building Materials

In 2023 and 2024, it has recorded huge writedowns and losses of  9.2m and 6.9m. In fact i am not optimistic about this portion as it is largely exposed to the poor housing market in China.

Whether this gets written down further in 2H 2025.........well depends on the performance of the joint ventures.

There is only 33.64 million left to be write-off.  In fact, i will not count this under the book value for now unless the company show that they have turned around operations.

From the looks of 1H 2025 where negative profits from JV under Cement is seen, i highly doubt so.

3) Investments

Largely Technology Focused Investments into VCs.

57% into Venture Capital Funds ,15% in equities, 17% in Investment Funds.

While the net change in financial assets was 6m in 1H 2025, representing roughly 7% gain, a longer time horizon has to be studied.

Unfortunately, since 2021, the overall is a loss. Having said that, tech has been a good performer in 2H 2025.  What is admirable is that despite an overall loss, the company remains confident in putting more money into investments.

Given that some of its names that it has revealed in the 2024 annual report has seen gains in valuation. I believe this could be reflected in 2H 2025 as i believe the fair value gain of not even 1% in 1H 2025 does not seem to reflect the headlines.

4) Singapore and Malaysia Cement. 

Finally I am at the part where i think the company golden goose is and has done well in the past few years.

The company does concrete and ready-mix concrete. It is one of the 14 players in Singapore that does ready-mix

Among the bigger players (classified as those with L6 and no limits on tendering) it is 1 of 7 such players.

The other names (some might be familar with) are Pan United (Listed), Sinmix (Under Lian Beng which was previously listed), Island Concrete (Part of Hong Leong Asia), Alliance Concrete (JV between Msia YTL Cement and TW Asia Cement) , Huation Contractor (Part Of Huationg Global which is listed)

Now that the introduction is over, lets take a look at the financials.

2H 2025 tend to have better revenue and in the 22,23,24 have shown better profitability than their 1H counterparts. 

1H 2025 Segment Result of 7.2m is also their best result in the past 5 years 1H. 

Looking at BCA Data, 2H 2025 has outperformed 1H by 22%.    

2026 Demand looks solid as well with 3% to 10% growth estimated.

2025 Actual came in at the top end of its 2025 forecast.

Following the data above, we could see higher revenue and earnings from this segment.

Maybe 10m in segment result?

Valuation Review

By Book Value, stripping off the China Specialty Cement JV and the China Associate (involved in property development) which is 33.64 million. The Book Value Per Share is $1.87. 

Implying a PB of 0.56.

If Pan United can trade at a PB of 3.25 , i think its fair to say Engro is undervalued by PB.

Looking at Engro's Balance Sheet, 62m of cash against 44.4m of current liablity. 

57m of receivables means that Cash + Receivables(119.6m) cover the whole of liablities (71.5m)

Worth noting that much of liablities is lease liablities and borrowings is only 9m (3% of assets)

The financial health is pretty solid.

Looking at earnings, if Pan United is valued by research brokers at 14x PE Forward Earnings,

I think Engro's Singapore and Malaysia cement can make around 9.5m net profit in FY 2025.

This implies that the cement segment alone is valued at 133m ( and is above its current valuation of 123.45m).  The investments of 70+m is literally free along with a China JV that has turned around. (the rest is not as worthwhile)

Conclusion

Although high risk (due to the potential write-offs as well as other potentially poor business segments) and net asset value has fell since 2021 as i think that the relatively low book to value and potential earnings in cement and investments makes it look somewhat attractive.