Friday 28 December 2018

Brief 2018 Review + Brief 2019 Ideas

My Performance in 2018: -9.20%
Performance of ES3(STI ETF): -6.87%
Performance of Tracker Fund 2800(Tracker Fund of Hong Kong): -11.48%
Performance of Tracker Fund 2828(Hang Seng H-shares ETF): -11.76%
Performance of Tracker Fund 2822(CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF): -24.29%
Performance of Tracker Fund 2823(I Shares A50): -23.68%

The poor performance should not be unexpected as majority of my portfolio is in Hong Kong and i have made a few poor decisions this year as well.

The last 3 months of 2018 has seen little buying as i slowly shifted to focus on other aspects of life.

Nevertheless total assets(cash+ equity) amounted to a high 5 digit sum which i felt i was lucky to end with such amount.  I could have done much much worse if not for a great deal of luck.

Moving into 2019,  I foresee myself slowing the pace of investing and probably focus more on other aspects of life.

However, i would still likely be blogging about my investing thoughts.

Brief Investing Ideas for 2019 (Singapore)

1) SBS Transit (Sgx: S61)

Yay Factors
-Rail Ridership higher than 2017 by about 8%
-Bus Contracting Model should benefit operators more
-Approval of 4.3% increase in fares.

Nah Factors
-Rail Operations still loss making
-Possible loss of Bus Packages in future(Next would be in 2020)
-For a company that trades at around 11 to 12 Forward PE, the possible expiry of bus packages from 2020-2026 do not seem to reflect a good price

Food for thought
-Despite a 0.21% increase in average daily ridership from Q1 to Q2, revenue increased by 16.8 million or 5.36%  quarter on quarter and segment profitability of public transport improved by 30%. This could be due to the new bus contracting model for SBS's Seletar Bus package coming into play. The bus package started from 11 March 2018.
- With Bukit Merah Bus package coming into play at a similar tender price to Seletar's, would we see another modest improvement in Public Transport Sector?

2) City Developments (Sgx: C09)

Yay Factors
-Low Gearing ratio of 23% before Fair value adjustments and 17% after fair value adjustments
-Investment Properties held at cost, implied Price to Book Value of roughly 0.526 if fair value is used.
-Share buyback since August 2018 at price of 9.54

Nah Factors
-Inventory of unsold properties in SG one of the highest among the various companies
-M&C Hotels PLC seems to have struggled this year.

Food for thought
-Seems to be a proxy for any Singapore Property Policy reactions.
-Bulk of profits still comes from Property development in Singapore
-There seem to be no new sales of New Futura from Oct to December, which could imply that vacancy rates remain same at 19% and imply poor sales of current ongoing projects.


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