(September 2026 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

September 2026 Returns: -4.81%

Year to Date Returns: 12.43%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 430.65%

After 2 negative months, i believe some changes have to be made to chase. 

Firstly i will say that Engro and Hor Kew remains the only untouchable for now. I did not see anything that might indicate a weaker cement demand or any negative news for Hor Kew.

Although traditionally 1H:2H Cement Revenue has always been 40:60 , this might change this year to at 50:50 or 55:45 landscape. 

Some of the 1H increase has been attributed to oil price increase too so it remains to be seen if this trend continues.

I will remove XMH and Infinity Development from the list and re-allocate it to mostly Nam Lee and some into Uni Asia and Soon Lian.

It baffles me that Nam Lee is actually not even 6 PE when this year we should expect higher HDB Completions and HIP in progress is actually at the highest since 2022 March (Covid Hit Period).

Their container segment should benefit too as their client has indicated a much better outlook than forecasted at the start of the year.

XMH faces the lawsuit and the agm was unconvincing to me. Infinity Development has some ok macro shoe export trends from Indonesia and Vietnam but i fear the margins might be affected and their top customer's shoe exports is trending downwards. Despite that, their recent share buyback of close to 5% at current prices do show strength though.

Divestment of Kwan Yong Holdings (Hkex 9998)

 Following the recent rally in Kwan Yong after its positive profit announcement, i have divested it and held only 5000 shares to attend the AGM if i am free.

To begin with, Kwan Yong is about 2% of the whole portfolio so it has never been a core position.

It has been a company that paid a dividend, is flushed with cash and has shown excellent margin control and profit ability with its recent profit announcement.

The recent divestment came after the lack of contract wins in the past 6 months.

At the end of previous financial year, they have around 66m of contracts that can be fufilled after 1 year more or later. They won a 96m contract during this FY. Apart from that, it has been quiet and most recent tenders have not been awarded yet.

This to me implies that the current FY will be slow and it should be factored in that the PE of around 4.5 might not be sustainable.

As always, there is 2 sides of camp to the story of having a long duration fufillment and short duration fufillment on the orderbook. 

Long = prices are fixed and you are more likely to be susceptible to future price increase if the measurements are done wrongly during the contract tender

Short = Able to factor in recent price increase and also lock in potential cost as contracts will be completed in a short period of time

Kwan Yong operates on short time frame which requires order book replenishment quickly. Their execution though, has been improving and they have been winning projects outside of schools / nursing home which is laudable.