(May 2024 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

May 2024 Returns: 3.84%

Year to Date Returns: 9.36%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 90.65%

I am going to ring quite some changes. But first i will give my short thoughts on some results that have been announced in May.

UMS: I think results will continue similar trend of lower for the full year.

Straco: 3Q still the key for the company. 1Q 2024 Profits still below 1Q 2019. Singapore Tourism Numbers still lower than pre-covid.

Powermatic: Dividend Maintained. Apart from that i think this year will be a bad year given its guidance that margins might be affected...along with the need of its cash to do its redevelopment. A slow and long waiting game might be on the horizon.

China Sunsine: Some Improvement in Net Profit from 1Q 2023 67m to 1Q 2024 85m. Better Gross Profit Margin and Higher Revenue Despite lower Average Selling Prices.

Centurion: No surprises in the improvement in revenue.

Changes to be made to the imaginary portfolio

Additions: GKE , Wee Hur, Choo Chiang, Moneymax

Removal: Powermatic Data , Straco (again)

The removal of Straco is a sign of my thinking that the positioning of its China Aquarium might be different from where it was pre-covid.

The removal of Powermatic Data is a sign of moving from passive/conservative towards a more aggressive stance, i think i will be back when signs show that sales are good but there are a lot of smart money which is why despite a lacklustre top-line and margins, the price barely moved much after results announcement.

Out of the 4 that i have added, my conviction is very mixed across the 4.

Wee Hur - The recent rise in price has led to a smaller than intended addition. I am pretty sure we will see the price drop to below 20 cents if volume is not sustained. That is when i think i will add again by rebalancing the portfolio. However, i want to have some participation which is represented by the 8.67% weightage. Overall i think this could be a black horse to student and workers accommodation exposure (but i need to see if the 1H 2024 Results match the expectations). Conviction Level: 3.1/5

Choo Chiang - This is another company that i think will be ok. With HDB Transactions up 8% in Q1 2024, i think there is some tailwinds along with the growing construction industry. 

Conviction Level: 3/5

Moneymax - This is just purely riding on the gold price trend. Conviction Level: 2.5/5

GKE - It took me a very long time to decide on this. This is because there are some parts of the business that i have heard stories about, also because certain portions of the business is hard to assess. What made me think that the company is interesting is ..........the recent share buybacks, its first since 2020 and the recent port congestion might benefit logistics players like GKE who has yard space for container storage as well.

Conviction Level: ?/5 . It is either i am a 0 or i am a 5. Realistically, with the buyback of shares, it should be around 2.3

With that, the edition of this month has come to an end. Hopefully the positioning of the portfolio will bring about better results.

Meanwhile i will head back to K-POP Related Video / Pic.

(Dishing out Hearts and hopefully the portfolio receives love)

As an ending spoiler note for reaching the end, out of the 4 that i have added in the imaginary portfolio, currently 2 have made the cut for possible inclusion into my own portfolio. 

However, i am still in the midst of researching and thinking about it. 

More Respect for SG Financial Bloggers / Youtubers

I woke up today thinking about writing some equity related stuff....but a thought suddenly cross my mind that i should write about this.

(Some K-Pop Photo Spam First as usual)

Back when i started investing in 2015, the Singapore Youtube Finance space is not developed, we have many of those seminars/courses that people really hated and blogging was the most common thing around (most people would know investment moats from that)

The first time i saw Kyith in real life, i thought i saw the OG Goat of Investing and Finance Writer in Singapore. I feel so excited and anxious actually.

To me, finance/investing is a very tough and complicated thing to teach or share. In fact, even with self-interest, resources are limited and are restricted to books / blogs / paid courses/ free courses. 

As time passes, these days, we have youtubers who spend time and effort to make content but really sometimes i feel they don't get enough credit for what they do. It is ok to not have to thank them but you don't have to go around saying someone is bad just because of a few bad stock picks and all. After all, everyone is just providing a view and nobody can be right as always.

On the other hand, you can't go around and expect everyone to be posting free quality regular content and being a saint right.......

-Consistent Post

-Talking about things people want to know

-Good Content and Delivery

I don't think anyone can do all of the 3 above and yet not ask for any remunerations. 

Unfortunately i am not keen and also unable to do the above 3 which is why i don't venture into videos etc.

Therefore for anyone to insert ads or do any platform placements and all.......i feel that is acceptable.

Whether anyone uses those platforms or not, it is up to the viewers themselves to do their due diligence. It is the same for any views or stocks or financial products which people talk about, those interested in investing or finding out more should do their own due diligence instead of just acting on these videos alone.

Bottom-line is, have more respect for them....

Conclusion

After Covid, we start to have more financial content and providers in the SG Space. The bottom-line is still users need to know which content are suitable for them and do their own research. 

At least more people have access to materials on how to do investing which can be as simple as just buying the CSPX on a regular basis to intermediate stuff like geographical allocations, asset allocations to more complex stuff like evaluating an individual stock.

Investing is for everybody, but the extent to which one does it depends on one's own financial situation, knowledge as well as risk appetite. 

Self Learn and Interest still remains important if one wants to advance in their knowledge, but one should be glad that there are more content around that can prove to value-add at times.

I will probably continue to stick to more K-POP for now

8th Year of Blogging (Why K-Pop Is A Turning Point In My Life)

Just checked my records. Started in 2018 April. Now we are in 2024 May. Time really flew by. 

I feel ok to share about a story on Why K-Pop Is A Turning Point In My Life

I happen to come across an old blog post that i wrote in 2018. 

2018 2H will always be a very dark period for myself. 

In 1H 2022 , Fresh out of University after making 2nd Upper on the last semester, i thought life will be smooth sailing as i can find a job that pays around the average based off graduate surveys and slowly climb from there while building up my portfolio that i have done well. 84.27% Returns as of 2018 June

Then in 2H 2022, the dark period came. Many Interviews but landed none of the jobs. I thought to myself my portfolio is doing well, i still can afford to wait and meanwhile grow my wealth. Then came a lot of bad decisions in investing. I ended up at starting 2019 Jan with 17.5% returns. The demotivation was so much that you could see me writing about investing much lesser.

In Early 2019, i was really lost and just trying to refine my investing or look at trying various styles but motivation to buy was largely sapped up.

Fortunately returns bounced up a little in 2019. But still far from the peak of 2018. Then came what i believe to be one of my turning points in my life. 

(The concert that is probably the biggest turning point)

At this point i was not very into K-POP but just generally listening time to time. A friend told be about Lovelyz concert in Singapore and asked me if i was keen to attend. Despite not hearing the group or their songs before, i said ok.

It turns out to be one of the best K-POP concerts i went in Singapore. Even though it was small crowd and small performing venue, the performance was good. I was blown away. 

Leaving the venue with newfound motivation, i told myself i need to get my act together so i can attend future Lovelyz Concerts. 

I was still close to 40% from my previous peak in 2018. 

(End 2019: 68.2%)

Eventually, with motivation, luck and to a smaller extent hardwork (luck is always important), i manage to recover well. It was within a week after the concert that i bought into shares of a SGX Company that has given me the highest returns in terms of % so far. 

Shinvest.

Purchase Date : 20 March 2019. 

Purchase Price: 0.75

Dividends Collected: 0.47

Delisting Price: 3.50

Delisting Date: 5 April 2022

Total Gains: 429.3%

I also rewarded myself with a trip to Korea in August 2019. My first time going Korea on my own and it was to watch a K-Pop Concert by Lovelyz.

As such, I have manage to continue investing till now. Which is why i would always be very grateful to Lovelyz and K-Pop. I would also try within my means to support as much as possible.

I believe for everyone , there are different motivations that will keep you going in life. Mistakes will bound to happen in life.  You can be down and out and feeling like giving up, but if you can find the motivations that keep you going, keep your head down and work hard to find out the mistakes you have made and continue to rectify them, things should turn out better. 

Thanks for reading to this post. 

(April 2023)

(April 2023)

(May 2023)

(August 2023)

(November 2023)

(March 2024)

(April 2024)

 

Huationg Global AGM Post Thoughts. The best is yet to come?

I will probably write down the conclusion first. I think the best half will be / has to be 1H 2024. Which is why i think the best is yet to come.

However, the possibility of the drop-off in revenue and earnings after 1H 2024 is there. I think there is a 80% chance 2H 2024 will be worst off than 2H 2023.

I have actually not made any decision yet with regards to this position because of its severe below book value and the strong cashflows seen in 2023. 

Why I think the best is yet to come

(a)Expansion of Dormitory Size. Previously it was 10400, now it is 12480 and although there are a few hundred of Huationg's own staff living there, the overall base is still larger and along with the increase in refundable deposits as seen in the annual report, this will lead to an increase in revenue in the dormitory operations

(b)Increased Construction Works. Previously mentioned in the annual report, the next 2 years will be good. With the revenue coming in from civil engineering contracts being at around 30% higher should no delays occur . This is because estimated 132 million will be recognized in 1 year compared to the 104 million in 2023 and tender price index has been on a rise, which means that margins should go up as cost is current but contracts are past prices.

(c)Improved Inland Logistics Support Segment Sentiments

(d) Improved Fixed Deposits. 59.9m at End 2023 with 70.6m cash compared to 7m at End 2022 with 23m cash.

Gathering the above 4 factors, I believe 1H 2024 should outperform.

AGM Notes

1) EGM Resolution Defeated

In what is easily one of the longest AGM i have went, the Q&A went on for at least 1.5-2 hrs.

There were many things that were being highlighted. Most people would have seen the results that the EGM failed.

Personally, I don't think this is a big deal. Because there was a married trade of 12.5m shares on 2 April from a 3rd party to the management. Had the management really want this to be through and 'played the game' , they could have done this married trade after the EGM.

I was just surprised with the amount of votes that were present as these were unrelated parties or retail investors. There was easily 4.4m shares there when i counted less than 8 retail shareholders present.

2) Unallocated Cost

There has been a way the Unallocated Cost has been distributed in FY 2023 compared to previous FY, as such, the margins have been affected by this allocation of cost (which is said to be the administrative cost of the company). As such, the dormitory margins look very different when 1 has seen the 1H 2022/1H 2023 and FY 2022 / 2023 results.

3) Dormitory Operations Enquiry

There were many queries about this from the floor. Unfortunately due to the non-disclosure agreement signed, there is nothing much they can reveal apart from the contract ending sometime in 2024. 

4) The Shift of Asset Held For Sale back to Property Plant Equipment. Due to high interest rate environment, the property at Benoi is unable to be sold. The initial plan was to sell the property at Benoi to get a larger place as currently coping with space constraints but more space is anticipated to be needed.

5) Rather Low Dividend Payout Remark by Shareholders. Management noted on it. Nothing much mentioned. However, after that management did note that they are doing decently now only, past years during covid times it was really bad and they nearly even had to do rights issue to tide through therefore now taking a conservative stance.

Conclusion

In line with point 3 above, this leads me to believe that if they do not get renewed, we could see profitability being affected.

Having said that, 1H 2024 should still be all guns firing. Have to research / look out on the websites or news or announcements to see if the renewal occurs as it goes.

If the rewewal does not happen, we could be looking at 1.5 to 3 cents Earnings per Half Year depending on how well the other segments do (we could get a feel of it at 1H 2024).

U can trust me when i say i left the AGM being more informed but more puzzled yet more head spinning as i still think about whether to make a decision to add / hold / reduce.

These 2 photos probably sums up my reaction and thoughts.

(San Miguel HK Related) San Miguel Brewery 1Q 2024 Results Breakdown

There are actually 3 things on my mind these days with regards to writing of a post and investing related.

1) Huationg AGM and afterthoughts 

2) Dream Int Related updates and views 

3) San Miguel HK Related from San Miguel Brewery 1Q

For (1) i might probably write again when i have more time as the writing could be long and likely boring

For (2) i will await more results in the upcoming weeks from related companies before thinking about writing after i gathered my thoughts

For (3) i will write about it in this post as it is the easiest among the 3 things

(My reaction after seeing the 1Q 2024 Results Breakdown)

San Miguel Brewery released its 1Q 2024 Results.

Operating Income came in at USD 19.9 million in 2024 vs 20.6 million in 2023

Net Income came in at USD 20.3 million in 2024 vs 19.7 million in 2023.

Looking at this portion and the write-up above, we can infer that Saint Miguel HK probably did well in Exports, South China Related while doing badly in its HK Operations.

Looking at 1H 2023 Results, China Operations have lower revenue but have higher EBIT and as such, a growth in exports and south china operations would benefit as it is the more profitable segment. 

Net income coming in at Operating Income would likely due to its Tax coming into play. Which is good because as mentioned before, they have quite a lot of tax credits in its south china operations to utilize due to previous tax losses.

Looking at another major contributor to the International Operations, Indonesia Operations under PTD, they recorded around 26.8% fall in profits.

This is about  USD 1.2m of net income and therefore if we consider that net income is up for 1Q 2024, then international operations such as Saint Miguel HK as well as international operations under the main company itself would have helped.

The main problem is that when i consider the NCI side of things, this is where we don't get tallying numbers.

NCI fell by around 60 PHP Million. The fall is around 30.8%. Considering the impact of PTD's NCI at 41.7% stake it would be only 24 PHP Million. The other 36 PHP million is not accounted for or might fall under SMB HK or other NCI like BPI /SMBTL.

As such, due to presence of like 5 NCI, using this to gauge becomes difficult. Especially when there is no mention of anything related in the NCI Line in this financial results.

Conclusion

I would stick to the previous indicator that i have used that have worked. Looking at solely the indicator below, i might consider adding actually.

(As seen in my previous initiation post on 14 December 2023)

Considering that the Int Ops Weightage has fell to an all time low for PTD, we can infer that there is probably an increase in SMHK as Int Ops Net Income has increased as mentioned earlier.

The NCI Fall and HK Operations recording decline has got me to think abit negatively. But the words of south china operations sales volume 11% increase, exports growing has got me to think positively. The international operations net income has increased vs operating income and has stayed strong has also reinforced positive thoughts.

I will think abit more before deciding if i should add as i don't think any addition at this point without any other divestment would affect the portfolio on a sizable scale.

But definitely, i am not selling after seeing this result.

(Saint Mig Light, a popular drink in HK......but i don't see it in Korea)