(Long Post) 1m By 31

Yea as the title suggest, i have 'got there'. 

But of course, things can flip quickly so yea maybe a few days later i would have fallen off like it did a few months ago....but oh wells , that is life. 

(Thumbnail Picture for the Group that motivated me and kickstarted the revivial since 2019)

(Being able to see them again in 2024 and 2025 is really a happy thing)

(Them in 2019)

I don't have much thoughts currently actually. Maybe because things happened too sudden this year. At 1 point in April, i was talking about my biggest loss in a day . Then, fast forward 4 months later, things flipped 180 degrees.

For anyone curious about the returns.

Without leverage/options and only SGX and HKEX.

Investing Journey and More about myself

Back when this blog started in 2018, it was part diary writing part sharing of analysis part show off. I thought that after learning investing from school from 2015-2018, i was ready. 

To add to that, i thought that a ntu business(banking and finance) 2nd upper degrees with a 100k portfolio(due to 20% and 37% returns in 2016 and 2017) upon graduation, the road to 1m would probably take like 5 years if i landed a good job and climbed the ladder and invested well with the knowledge i have learnt.

Unfortunately, thoughts are just thoughts. 2018 quickly turned into a nightmare. Jobless upon graduation, reversing my portfolio to a negative in the 2nd half of the 6 months from a 20+% ytd gain. That was also one of my toughest years. The 2018 review write up can be found here

That year broke my confidence down. It left me really down. If not for falling into Lovelyz into 2019 after watching their concert in Singapore and reignited my interest in K-Pop and the desire to do well so i can keep doing what i want to do in terms of K-Pop related stuff(e.g going to Korea to see their concert), i probably might have given up.

So yeah, some people ask me why i am so obsessed with K-pop, i rarely gave the real answer because there are so many parts to it. Sometimes end of the day, you just have to do things that you are happy and comfortable with.

In case folks ever wonder that subsequently, i had a high salary to boost my portfolio, that is not the case. 

If you see this capital flow, you can tell that i have not pumped money into the portfolio since 2022. So i am just making the best of what i have. Also, i only started working in 2020 (which explains the higher capital inflow) and my last drawn take home salary in 2025 is 3300 - 3400.

In fact, ever since 2021, people might have realise that the positions i have taken gets more concentrated and focused.

2020: AAG, Shinvest, Tat Seng ,KWG Group, Mainland Headwear. 

2021: Shinvest and AAG Energy 

2022: AAG Energy , HG Metal , Medialink Group, Mainland Headwear

2023: Dream International, Huationg Global (Top 20 Shareholder at 1 point), San Miguel Brewery

2024: Dream International and Wee Hur

2025(Current): Dream International, Hor Kew,Mainland Headwear 

This year's journey.

Started off this year with around 440 to 450k. Was up around 10% and doing well at around March when tariffs happened.

My top position fell 32% in 2 days. As spoken in my previous post, i consolidated my hong kong holdings into this position. 

The rest is seen in this chart.

I have received some enquiries on whether i have took profit. At time of writing, i have took some profit on this position.

Previously, i have always wanted to hold it all until i have seen the results (in fact i was invited to their zoom session this time around too).

But since at this price which Mr Market decides to give it, it is life changing money, i decided to trim the position. 

Yea, not going to lie that this phrase 'life changing money' is something i used to hear a friend i met more often last time said. And it keeps lingering in my mind as well.

Dream International. Is it overpriced at $14.82?

Truth be told, in my own valuation model, if 1H 2025 there is no positive profit announcement, it probably means only 2 things

1) Profit increase if any is less than 35%

2) Company did not feel that there is a need to release it this time around.

Case number 2 is rare and unlikely so lets just assume it is case 1 .

Assuming around 20% profit so 1H is 50 cents. 2H is usually 65% higher than 2H. As such, around 85 cents. Full year $1.35 and with manufacturers wanting to shift out from China to Vietnam, new 2nd plant in indonesia and full year of operation in 2026. Such that 25% increase in plastic for 2027. 

11+ PE is not expensive given the potential(2026/2027) and there is not much alternatives if big orders want to be shifted out of China. Dream will be the most likely beneficiary.

I am just dissapointed slightly that there is a chance results might not beat 2023 results. 

Still, 2H is the traditional peak season for Dream, which means it is way more important. There is the possibility of big orders from Pop Mart which also signals that demand is not a problem.

However, all these are in the plastic segment, the plush segment which earns around 2:1 per revenue compared to plastic, will still be key.

Currently, no indications of high double digit gains yet.

There are a few listed hkex manufacturers on my watchlist that have plants in bangaladesh , vietnam, cambodia, indonesia 

These currently trade at around 5 to 8 PE.

But, none are toy producers. 

None have above 2 billion revenue HKD. 

None have shown that they have grown revenue in the past 5 years like Dream.

None have expanded as aggressively as dream.

None have performed within a 20% range in terms of profit for the past 3 years.

None have an IR that respond to a retail investor like Dream.

To sum it up, there are many reasons why Dream can be higher than 8 PE and deserves to be there.

What's next?

Taking a prolonged break sounds good, firing my boss, selling all my stocks. Go for holidays, recharge for a few years and come back again. 

Maybe move to Korea for 1-2 years to study korean and be closer to chasing k-pop related events

I am undecided yet. For now i will take some time to think it through. I don't know how much there is left in the tank for me really.

On 1 hand, it is good to take a break but on the other, the real games has just begun.

In the meantime, i have to still monitor my current stocks, try to learn more knowledge of various companies, source for more companies as well as update the monthly 'How i would invest series' too. 

Even if i do sell all my stocks, i will still keep up with that series. It keeps me motivated to track stocks and also create a list of stocks to keep an eye on etc.

As usual, i will end of with K-Pop Photos and hope that things will continue to be good.

(The wand worked. Hope it works further more)

Ending Remarks

Always grateful and thankful to everyone and everything as always. 

(July 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

July 2025 Returns: 7.55%

Year to Date Returns:67.00%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 279.93%

Nothing much to report in July as we await results in august. Apart from the much awaited Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) finally gaining traction,

I think that is a reason why folks might be anticipating the market ahead of time and lead to some people saying STI CXG is overvalued. But truth be told, if you have been stuck in a 3000-4000 rangebound for years, you might think that above 4000 it is over valued or dangerous. Much like a frog in the well thinking outside there are hunters etc.

Strong SGD relative to other countries , Companies growing revenue and profits, Economic Growth, Inflation.....these are just a few reasons in the many reasons and factors that can cause the stock market to go up. 

Sometimes we might have to move our valuations in line with market or settle for cheaper stocks which are likely cheap for a reason or another (e.g lack of news or coverage or information.) Or simply it could be just its business prospects or results are not as good such that folks would rather invest in other stocks. 

While we ponder and think it through, it will be a big august ahead.

Powermatic Data 2025 AGM Notes

Powermatic Data 2025 AGM Notes

Powermatic held its AGM on 24 July 2025. Around 45-60 shareholders are present with some long term shareholders interested to understand the developments of the company following a rather poor but expected year.

Revenue fell 49%, Gross Profit 56% and Profits 22%.

Q1: Explaination of Poor Results

A1: 2 Main Reasons. 1 is the overstocking in recent years. Second is due to Qualcom's uncompetitive Wifi 6 products resulting in competitors like Mediatek being more attractive value prepositions. As a result, as customers progress from 5 to 6, they would rather use solutions of other companies. This explains the fall in revenue despite inventory levels seems to have returned to healthy levels for customers.

Q2: On Business Prospects Moving Forwards

A2: Current Market is niched and it means that client base is limited.

As such, to consider entering connectivity markets that have more clients but these are more competitive and it means lower margins and possibly bad debt risk that the board and management has to consider. Mentioned a recent atm machine connectivity project win that is not related to their usual wifi connectivity as an example to show that they are making some inroads progress.

Expect orders to return end of this year for Wifi 7. Customers keen but a lot of hand holding needed to guide them into this transition. As such it will be gradual process.

Gave an example of their major customer. Took them 1.5 years to transit from Wifi 5 to 7.

Especially after losing out on Wifi 6. Currently, Qualcom products for Wifi 7 looks more competitive than Mediatek (facing some issues with performance) and management believes they have an edge. Also mentioned Wifi 7 to 8 will be another 6-8 years so this Wifi 7 will be long.

Mentioned Edge AI as a big trend, will need powerful processors and in turn more powerful wifi products which is Powermatic's expertise. A potential market and opportunity for Powermatic.

Q3: On New Ceo

A3: Board does not agree with the directions that the CEO wants to take and there has been integration problems into the corporate culture. As such, decided that it is best to do the right actions for shareholders.

Re-iterated that the process was quite stringent as it is someone the executive directors know for 15 years.

Some impact onto P&L around 250k due to performance shares that has to be expensed along with the pay up till June 2025.

Q4: On New Food Factory

A4: No new progress as it is still 28% sold (12 units). Market seems to have slowed down. Good thing is that within timeline and within construction budget of 28m.

A new launch in vicinity called foodpoint tai seng has also seen slow down in sales so it is a market effect.

Overall not much worries since not financed by debt and there is the option of renting units out and also overall cost of development is low.

Conclusion: Some people know i run a monthly series of an imaginary portfolio how i would pick sgx stocks if i had 100k since Sept 2020.

Powermatic Data has been in and out of that list. After the AGM, it will still remain out.

I feel that it still needs more monitoring at this point and a possibly entry should be after 2026 agm if prospect of Wifi 7 is good and sales has picked up. The opportunity cost of waiting for 1 year while knowing that it is very likely a slow year is the reason why it will not be in the list.

(June 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

June 2025 Returns: 19.62%

Year to Date Returns: 55.28%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 253.26%

I had to double check the numbers again to make sure i was right. 

Basically there were a lot of bright spots in June. UMS , Hong Leong Asia, Hor Kew, Moneymax and Centurion are the main stand outs.

1H 2025 Returns of 55.28%. Very Very Very Satisfactory. 

Also thankful for the support for every view to this sgx stock only series.

I will just briefly talk about 2 stocks. Both of which recorded good gains in excess of 20% in June itself.

Hong Leong Asia - Construction Portion is expected to be strong so no surprises there, perhaps there has been increased interest in the Singapore Construction Sector with the expected increase in HDBs and Projects. Increased Utility in their precast factory will be a good thing as it has been unprofitable in 2023/2024.

On the engines part (China Yuchai) is where all the fun is actually....YTD Gains of 156% for Yuchai while Hong Leong Asia is around 69%. Considering that HLA owns half of Yuchai, i would expect say around 78% to be fair?

In terms of fundamentals, its orderbook is full till next year June and there has been news of price increase in 2H 2025 as well as capacity increase in 2026. This is due to increased power generator demand as a result of Data Centres. These power generators serve as utility back-up power supply for these data centres (main operators are the big tech companies).

In some sites, there have been mention of increased sales of 20% for Multi-cylinder diesel engine in 1st 5 months of the year so thats a positive news.

So lets assess again 1H results and 2H 2025 results to see if this happens.

Hor Kew - Main rise in June probably came from the minutes of the AGM where more details were seen about the company's operations. 

2 Years of sustainable margins and sufficient orderbook is actually pretty good enough given that the company trades at 3 to 4 PE.

From this we can tell that there is value to be unlocked. 

Hor Kew is trading at around 0.6 book value($1.63). The land is 33 cents. Around 20% of book value or 30% of market cap. If this is sold and at 'a few times higher' there is so much value to be seen if dividend is to be paid out higher as well. Lets reassess the 1H 2025 results and see the margins which would indicate the future results of 2H 2025 and 2026. 

The hidden value of the possible land sales makes the company much safer and attractive too.

The next important juncture will still be August where companies start reporting result.

Dream International (1126.HK) Update

Dream International had a crazy week from 11 June. It has rallied from 6.25 to a peak of 11.36 before retracing to close at 9.70 today.

The most epic day came on 11 June itself where there was huge volume traded (15 times of usual trading volumes) leading to a 44% increase. As it was too volatile, i decided to wait a few days and gather my thoughts before talking about it.

Turns out that there was some sharing / interaction session with management and folks were convinced that it was underpriced at that value.

Interested folks can read them at https://xueqiu.com/2416893682/338438205 and https://xueqiu.com/8320943040/338364949

I will just talk about my thoughts after reading them and reconcile my thoughts again and inform about my take and position.

1) Positive Theme Park Sentiments.

My thoughts: This is inline with what i mentioned earlier so it is good to know that the view still remains

2) 2H 2025 Gross Margin Comments. 'It's going to be okay'.

My thoughts: It is very rare for the management to comment about gross margins as they are usually very less positive about it. For them to say its going to be okay is a huge surprise.

3) On Pop Mart as a new customer. They admit that Pop Mart is a customer, which once again i am not surpised. The quantity is on the low end still and they will have to discuss and also take care of their production capacity as they might not have space to give them. A discussion is expected in 2H with regards to this.

My thoughts: This is definitely good news as there is acknowledgement from Pop Mart. Pop Mart has once mentioned that they would want to source from south east asia up to 20% of their sourcing. 20% sounds really low especially when POP Mart's Cost of Goods Sold is 3.7 billion HKD in 2024. 20% is around 740 million which is around 13.5% of Dream's 2024 Revenue.

But, considering that this client can achieve huge revenue growth of at least 80% revenue , this amount can easily increase a lot in 2025 2026 . Having them as a customer will definitely divert away a lot of risk associated with the US Customers (Destocking Cycle and Trade War)

4) Factory Expansion in Indonesia. Will look to have 2nd factory.

My thoughts: Explains about the demand is still good.

5) Increased Enquires from Buyers for Capacity from Dream as they want to shift out of China Productions.

My thoughts: I think this has been repeated many times in various toy companies such as Hasbro , Spinmaster and Funko. No surprises. A listed peer with the production scale outside of china apart from Dream , i cannot think of one.

6) In contact with more investors this year compared to previously.

My thoughts: Self Explanatory given the trading volume, their IR have been responsive as well and even offered to have a zoom session with me in the earlier years but i did not attend as my queries was answered.

Conclusion: The key risk still remains so lets not kid ourselves and get too ahead of ourselves and punch a target price that is sky. But current price is a PE of 9 which is not expensive (given by how it is large in the toys production industry and probably biggest production scale outside of China) and is on the back of a poor 2024 year and before new customers make meaningful contribution and the increased shift in manufacturing away from China. If earnings improve this year, this PE will shrink.

Though as we all know too well , the main shift out of China is due to tariffs and if the trade deal is not done, we might see tariffs in vietnam being higher and as such companies might not want to shift out anymore but instead shift back in.

Though i would argue that having pop mart recognize the company's production abilities and capacities will be able to mitage this portion well as it shows that their new customer generation is gaining traction. But still, 10 July deadline remains an overhang for now.

In terms of results, after reading what i have seen and also the various export data and customer's results, i still remain positive on it.

I am just going to boldly predict that i think we will see a positive profit announcement for 1H 2025.

Will continue holding it till at least the results release. But of course if it decides to rally to prices that would be good enough for me to retire then that is another thing altogether but lets just say it is a long way out and i still have to 'Dream' about it.

I have always been some way off in terms of predicting its profitability so it sounds like a jinx already. But if i was asked to make a prediction as a retail investor and NTU Business undergrad who cannot even make the entry level equity analyst job in Singapore......

I will say we can do 60 cents earnings per share in 2025 1H.

(2023: 1H 49.3 cents. 2024: 1H 41.2 cents)

Pasting the same kpop photo to hopefully continue to bless the company for good luck.

(May 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

May 2025 Returns: 10.70%

Year to Date Returns: 29.43%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 194.47%

Below was what i said in May for End April

April is a negative month as market volatility sets in. One surprise that has got me thinking is Centurion. It has dipped to 1.0x levels before rebounding back.

I have no doubt about this position.

Centurion rebounded in May. with a gain of close to 20%. This along with a rebound in Hong Leong Asia, gains seen across the board like Moneymax all bring the portfolio to a month high gain of 10.70%

YTD Gains of 29%. Very satisfied with the results.

Since i have readjusted already last month, i don't see the need to readjust my positions again.

But i will be putting in the spare cash(dividends) into a position(Hong Leong Asia). The portfolio will look like this.

The next important juncture should be August where companies start reporting result.

(Long Post) Recent Portfolio Update + Dream International Related Update

Finallly have some time to write down a recent update post......was out of town for K-pop.

After 1 of my previous post where i talked about my biggest loss in a day at the start of April, times have quickly flipped very rapidly.

During this period, i have reviewed the portfolio and done the following.

Removed

-Infinity Development (640 HKEX) at price of around 0.77. Current Price 0.96

-Prosperous Industrial Holdings (1731 HKEX) at price of around 0.79. Current Price 0.84

Added

-Dream International (1126 HKEX)

It has returned to pre-tariff levels

Rationale:

When i formed up the portfolio, i base some of my decisions based on the amount of information available and how highly accurate / correlated the results are to the information that i have.

As such, i decided to consolidate my resources into 1 that i have done the most research / have more conviction about. This approach is something i feel more comfortable with.

There is no right / wrong / systematic way to go about doing things as everyone is different and sees things differently. Ultimately, doing what 1 is comfortable with is more important.

As you can see, the prices that i have sold are lower than the current prices so not every buy/sell is 'correct' in terms of result.

Dream International Update: Looking at it from customers and prevailing data / agm views

AGM Update Sharing from Online:

There is increased confidence that the results this year will be better than last year. Adding to the positive investor relations comments back in March when i emailed them, the outlook remains positive despite recent headlines.

Funko:  Revenue decrease in line with guidance, inventory lowered but the target to source outside from China increased from 2/3 to 95% by this year.

Has started to secure extra capacity for manufacturing outside of China.

Spinmaster: 66.4 million in 1Q 2025 for Wheels and Action Segment. 63% higher than 1Q 2024

This represents a level higher than 1Q 2023 (43.8 million) as well, and monster jam was mentioned as a reason for incremental revenue although pos growth is not mentioned.

Also mentioned increased sourcing outside of China from 45% to 70% by end of 2025

Disney: Experiences Segment. New Theme Park in Abu Dhabi, a place i have been to but i really want to visit again if there is good k-pop events..... but probably have to wait for more details

In terms of China, attendance is good but spending is not there. Difficult to assess anything unfortunately. As the term 'spending' is too vague.

Oriental Land: Relatively flat guidance for 2026 (around 3-5% lower than 2025). 1Q 2025 still positive results compared to 1Q 2024 as inventory fall is lower and merchandise sales is slightly higher. My estimate is that it is around 14% higher.

Overall, it is a slightly lower guidance but it is not so far off.

Export Data: Export of Toys and sports requisites; parts in 1st 4 months in Vietnam is 83.6% higher than 1st 4 months last year. In April 2025, it is 2.1 times higher than April 2024. As such, things do look rosy adding to what management mentioned earlier.

Indonesia Factory: Has started to hire and is in operation. Which is a positive as if the companies has troubles, they are more likely to push back operation of new factories.

Vietnam Factory: Still seeing hiring.

Overall, there are still 2 overhanging problems, margins and trade war.

From margins point of view, there is really no way to tell as management did not give anything away as well. This point is probably something that the management will have to work on and as investors , we probably have to trust them. Its not possible to know every aspect of the business clearly.

Trade War. With the China US progress in talks today, this might slow down the pace of sourcing outside of China or might lead to a production back in China if something remarkable happens in latter weeks compared to Vietnam. Also, the extension is 3 months and it remains to be seen what is done in the remaining months.

Conclusion: Based on current available data, for 1H 2025 at least, i believe it will be better than 1H 2024. Of course we are only 4 months in and there is 2 more months of data and future uncertainty.

Meanwhile i will just upload k-pop photos and hope things will turn out well.

Can we see a positive profit announcement for 1H 2025? It might be early days but at least things look good for now such that we might have a chance.