Finallly have some time to write down a recent update post......was out of town for K-pop.
After 1 of my previous post where i talked about my biggest loss in a day at the start of April, times have quickly flipped very rapidly.
During this period, i have reviewed the portfolio and done the following.
Removed
-Infinity Development (640 HKEX) at price of around 0.77. Current Price 0.96
-Prosperous Industrial Holdings (1731 HKEX) at price of around 0.79. Current Price 0.84
Added
-Dream International (1126 HKEX)
Rationale:
When i formed up the portfolio, i base some of my decisions based on the amount of information available and how highly accurate / correlated the results are to the information that i have.
As such, i decided to consolidate my resources into 1 that i have done the most research / have more conviction about. This approach is something i feel more comfortable with.
There is no right / wrong / systematic way to go about doing things as everyone is different and sees things differently. Ultimately, doing what 1 is comfortable with is more important.
As you can see, the prices that i have sold are lower than the current prices so not every buy/sell is 'correct' in terms of result.
Dream International Update: Looking at it from customers and prevailing data / agm views
AGM Update Sharing from Online:
There is increased confidence that the results this year will be better than last year. Adding to the positive investor relations comments back in March when i emailed them, the outlook remains positive despite recent headlines.
Funko: Revenue decrease in line with guidance, inventory lowered but the target to source outside from China increased from 2/3 to 95% by this year.
Has started to secure extra capacity for manufacturing outside of China.
Spinmaster: 66.4 million in 1Q 2025 for Wheels and Action Segment. 63% higher than 1Q 2024
This represents a level higher than 1Q 2023 (43.8 million) as well, and monster jam was mentioned as a reason for incremental revenue although pos growth is not mentioned.
Also mentioned increased sourcing outside of China from 45% to 70% by end of 2025
Disney: Experiences Segment. New Theme Park in Abu Dhabi, a place i have been to but i really want to visit again if there is good k-pop events..... but probably have to wait for more details
In terms of China, attendance is good but spending is not there. Difficult to assess anything unfortunately. As the term 'spending' is too vague.
Oriental Land: Relatively flat guidance for 2026 (around 3-5% lower than 2025). 1Q 2025 still positive results compared to 1Q 2024 as inventory fall is lower and merchandise sales is slightly higher. My estimate is that it is around 14% higher.
Overall, it is a slightly lower guidance but it is not so far off.
Export Data: Export of Toys and sports requisites; parts in 1st 4 months in Vietnam is 83.6% higher than 1st 4 months last year. In April 2025, it is 2.1 times higher than April 2024. As such, things do look rosy adding to what management mentioned earlier.
Indonesia Factory: Has started to hire and is in operation. Which is a positive as if the companies has troubles, they are more likely to push back operation of new factories.
Vietnam Factory: Still seeing hiring.
Overall, there are still 2 overhanging problems, margins and trade war.
From margins point of view, there is really no way to tell as management did not give anything away as well. This point is probably something that the management will have to work on and as investors , we probably have to trust them. Its not possible to know every aspect of the business clearly.
Trade War. With the China US progress in talks today, this might slow down the pace of sourcing outside of China or might lead to a production back in China if something remarkable happens in latter weeks compared to Vietnam. Also, the extension is 3 months and it remains to be seen what is done in the remaining months.
Conclusion: Based on current available data, for 1H 2025 at least, i believe it will be better than 1H 2024. Of course we are only 4 months in and there is 2 more months of data and future uncertainty.
Meanwhile i will just upload k-pop photos and hope things will turn out well.
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