Year End Thoughts
Overall the cold hard truth is that a lot of time in 2024 is spent on monitoring the business environments of the positions i have held this year and i did not have to make too much changes (with the exception of rotating Huationg Global out)
The toughest year will be the year ahead and 2025 is probably a year where i have to think about what would be the right stocks to hold / what would be good replacement if stocks in the portfolio are not performing as well.
Other than that, if they do continue to perform well, i don't see any need to rotate them out.
Its safe to say i don't expect my returns in 2025 to be anywhere near 2024.
Motivation wise.........i think it is the same as previous years (Which is low). In fact in August when my portfolio was at +4.52% returns when it was 27% in May...i had flash backs of 2018 again when i went from +20 to -10. Fortunately things worked out well. I wrote more about it in a previous post here
Portfolio Related
Fortunately, the main bulk of ideas worked out (Dream and Centurion) while the new additions (IGG , Wee Hur ) turned out great.
Bought Dream at 3.98 and 4.1 in Feb and March. Closed 4.98 at end 2024.
Bought Wee Hur at 0.25 , 0.305, in Sep and 0.42 in Dec. Closed 0.42 at end 2024
Still, some alpha capture plays such as Kwoon Chung Bus and Saint Mig HK backfired.
Huationg Global largely unimpressed with its announcement that it did not manage to renew the tender for the dormitory resulting in a 20% intraday loss.
Selling out took a period of time considering the trading volume , the stocks i held (which put me in the top 20 shareholders namelist).
Centurion has been rotated out of the portfolio for a more short term value play which i think it is in Wee Hur.
This was before i saw the D&D video which mentioned the KPI of 4 billion aum from ard 2.1 billion (which increases the likelihood of corporate actions in 2025).
On a longer time frame, i believe the worker dorm policies will still benefit long lease owners like Centurion.
In End 2024, the larger positions are (>6%)
1) Dream International
- Theme Parks Visitorship in Japan have recovered in Q4 2024 and outperformed compared to Q4 2023. There has also been an increase in inventory for end Q3 2024 which suggest restocking (this was actually not seen in Q3 2023).
- Toys Export to US is actually up (although a report by an individual research firm who has met the management has wrote that plastic figures segment might be weak or weaker than last year which has put some ??? in my thoughts).
-Funko Inventory has slightly increased for the first time in many quarters. Revenue guidance for Q4 remains weak though.
-Shanghai Theme Park remains at similar levels compared to last year. Slight worry maybe is HK which has fell. However guidance by the independent research firm points to possibly a 'record' year for plush.
-Spinmaster's Monster Truck Segment remains strong with 16% growth in Q3.
-I still think the new customer's impact is limited and can only be re-assessed again when the full year results are out.
2) Wee Hur
-FY Results will be key. The divestment will provide the base for a transition to a cash rich balance sheet.
-Things to look out for. 2H PBSA Profit , Worker Dorm 2H Rev and Profit , If construction will turnaround, Dividends, Progress of New Dorm (Any potential delays or early completion)
3) Infinity Development
-Gross Margins continue to improve.
-New Indonesia Plant likely to assist and in-line with Major Customer Yue Yuen's expansion plans
-Monitor Major Customer's Revenue
With that the 2024 Review has come to an end.
Self Reflections
It seem magical that whenever Lovelyz does a concert, the returns seem to be the highest.
When i saw them in early 2019, it motivated me to want to invest so that i have the chance to see them in future and it has resulted in my highest returns
This is once again eclipsed only in 2024 which coincidentally i had the chance to catch their 10th anni concert (their first live concert since 2019)
It has been a good year for myself as i was glad and blessed to be able to attend much more K-POP Events.
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