2024 Year End Review

 

2024: Returns: 48.08% (If 2023 is a miracle run, 2024 would be a demigod run)

Year End Thoughts

Overall the cold hard truth is that a lot of time in 2024 is spent on monitoring the business environments of the positions i have held this year and i did not have to make too much changes (with the exception of rotating Huationg Global out)

The toughest year will be the year ahead and 2025 is probably a year where i have to think about what would be the right stocks to hold / what would be good replacement if stocks in the portfolio are not performing as well.

Other than that, if they do continue to perform well, i don't see any need to rotate them out.

Its safe to say i don't expect my returns in 2025 to be anywhere near 2024. 

Motivation wise.........i think it is the same as previous years (Which is low). In fact in August when my portfolio was at +4.52% returns when it was 27% in May...i had flash backs of 2018 again when i went from +20 to -10. Fortunately things worked out well. I wrote more about it in a previous post here

Portfolio Related

Fortunately, the main bulk of ideas worked out (Dream and Centurion) while the new additions (IGG , Wee Hur ) turned out great. 

Bought Dream at 3.98 and 4.1 in Feb and March. Closed 4.98 at end 2024.

Bought Wee Hur at 0.25 , 0.305, in Sep and 0.42 in Dec. Closed 0.42 at end 2024

Still, some alpha capture plays such as Kwoon Chung Bus and Saint Mig HK backfired. 

Huationg Global largely unimpressed with its announcement that it did not manage to renew the tender for the dormitory resulting in a 20% intraday loss. 

Selling out took a period of time considering the trading volume , the stocks i held (which put me in the top 20 shareholders namelist).

Centurion has been rotated out of the portfolio for a more short term value play which i think it is in Wee Hur.

This was before i saw the D&D video which mentioned the KPI of 4 billion aum from ard 2.1 billion (which increases the likelihood of corporate actions in 2025). 

On a longer time frame, i believe the worker dorm policies will still benefit long lease owners like Centurion.

In End 2024, the larger positions are (>6%)

1) Dream International

- Theme Parks Visitorship in Japan have recovered in Q4 2024 and outperformed compared to Q4 2023. There has also been an increase in inventory for end Q3 2024 which suggest restocking (this was actually not seen in Q3 2023). 

- Toys Export to US is actually up (although a report by an individual research firm who has met the management has wrote that plastic figures segment might be weak or weaker than last year which has put some ??? in my thoughts). 

-Funko Inventory has slightly increased for the first time in many quarters. Revenue guidance for Q4 remains weak though.

-Shanghai Theme Park remains at similar levels compared to last year. Slight worry maybe is HK which has fell. However guidance by the independent research firm points to possibly a 'record' year for plush.

-Spinmaster's Monster Truck Segment remains strong with 16% growth in Q3.

-I still think the new customer's impact is limited and can only be re-assessed again when the full year results are out.

(Potential New Customer?)

(Made in Vietnam)

(Bread and Butter Business Plush)

2) Wee Hur

-FY Results will be key. The divestment will provide the base for a transition to a cash rich balance sheet.

-Things to look out for. 2H PBSA Profit , Worker Dorm 2H Rev and Profit , If construction will turnaround, Dividends, Progress of New Dorm (Any potential delays or early completion)

3) Infinity Development

-Gross Margins continue to improve.

-New Indonesia Plant likely to assist and in-line with Major Customer Yue Yuen's expansion plans

-Monitor Major Customer's Revenue 

With that the 2024 Review has come to an end.

Self Reflections

It seem magical that whenever Lovelyz does a concert, the returns seem to be the highest.

When i saw them in early 2019, it motivated me to want to invest so that i have the chance to see them in future and it has resulted in my highest returns 

This is once again eclipsed only in 2024 which coincidentally i had the chance to catch their 10th anni concert (their first live concert since 2019)

It has been a good year for myself as i was glad and blessed to be able to attend much more K-POP Events. 

(Never expect myself to go to US to attend a K-POP Tour...but it happened)

 (Sending Hearts and Wishing Everyone a Happy New Year)

(December 2024 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

December 2024 Returns: -1.66%

Year to Date Returns: 30.50%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 127.50%

December is a month where negative returns is seen. Mainly coming from Wee Hur. I have evaluated the divestment news in another post so i would not be mentioning it again. 

The only point that i would point out is i am not selling out the position. I don't rule out adding at around this level either but i will reassess the portfolio again as a whole.

Overall for the year, 30.50% returns is pretty good.  

The overall returns over the years looks like this

CAGR:16.9% (For anyone interested in CAGR)

Definitely, Bulk of the returns has been driven from Centurion, Haw Par , Wee Hur and Moneymax.

A stock that i want to mention would be Centurion. Which has posted their D&D video 2 weeks ago.

In their video, they mentioned their assets under management is around 2.1 billion and the KPI for 2025 is 4 billion. Also mentioned that they deliberately skipped the number 3.

This will likely be done thru recycling of capital and asset-light strategy.

I found this to be quite amazing and amusing. Definitely it seems like a busy year ahead. Whether or not this is done via JVs or 100% ownership in assets.

As always , thanks for following this series in 2024. 

Hoping for a decent 2025 for everyone ahead.

Evaluating the Disposal Announcement by Wee Hur.

 Wee Hur announced that it will be disposing a huge proportion of their stake in the Australia PBSA. The deal values the student properties at A$1.6B which is what was mentioned in the media previously.

No surprises there.

Details of the disposal in brief

-Proceeds of S$320 million or 34.8 cents SGD

-Record a gain of 9 cents SGD

-13% stake retained

-Deal expected to complete sometime in 2025

Is this a good deal based on the current price of 0.475?

Current Price indicates a market cap of 436.64 million

13% of A1.6 billion would be 178.1 million SGD (Student Accomodation)

2H 2024 Profits of Australia PBSA (Estimated around 12M, based on rental revisions and operating profit of $20.6 million in 2023)

117 million of spare cash

95m of receivables

Workers Dormitory (26M Profit in 1H 2024 but only 60% stake so 15.6M)

Bartley Vue Development (TOP 2026)

Since total liabilities is around 320 million as well, this means a clean sweep of the balance sheet to no liablities.

Doing a simple calculation

436.34 million -117 million (cash) - 70 million (discounted receivables) - 12 millions (PBSA Profit) - 178.1 million (Stake in PBSA)

= 59.24 million

This is the current value of the workers dormitory + the Bartley Vue Development which is definitely a big discount.

Assume a low 8% net profit on proceeds of Bartley Vue = 15.76 million. 75% interest = 11.82 million

The 15744 bed dormitory runs till 2026

The 10500 domitory runs till 2029. Expected to be fully operational from 2025

Both have 60% stake.

Estimating around 16m of Profit for each half for the 15744 bed. Till 2026 this brings in around 80M

The 10500 bed will bring in around 106 million until 2029.

Assuming no extension is provided (it was granted in 2023)

The undiscounted value is around 200 million already compared to current valuation of 59 million

Not to forget the australia land, construction,fund management(45 million) , alternative investment (13 million) are free.

Realistically speaking. I think the company should be worth around 0.75 at least.

We would see what the market thinks of this deal. I think the PBSA Profits in 2H might be decent as well (exceed 12 million estimations).

In the long run, whether this deal goes through or not, it at least ascertains the value of the PBSA.

Forgot to add that their 30% owned PBSA Y Suites on Margaret in Sydney is not included in this deal. As of 31 December 2023, it was valued at 90 SGD Million. As such, it is another 27 million to Wee Hur. Roughly 2.9 cents per share worth. This PBSA will only come into operation in 2025. Given the positive revisions seen in 2024, it is likely that it is worth more than this figure already.

Late Night Sudden Short Thoughts on My Portfolio

Boring Post Ahead

Using stockscafe, it has been a convenient way for me to see the different statistics provided.

One of the recent table that i have seen was pretty alarming for me although i do feel that it probably is true

In short these past 3 years, i have not been able to inject capital into the portfolio.

Realistically when i see this stat, the first thought that came to my mind was actually how much this amount actually relates to the portfolio in terms of %.

To give an example in portfolio management, if the amount you can inject is 20k while your portfolio is 200k. you are injecting less then 10%. This means that what is in your portfolio is probably more important than what you do with that 20k.

Of course if you only have 5k and you want to inject 20k then these 20k is more important

I guess most folks would know this. Then the question becomes, instead of thinking what new things to buy with these 20k, would it be better to think about how the 200k should be positioned first?

This only applies for mostly stock picking.....if its index purchases and just reaping market returns and volatility then it does not matter much.

This is where opportunity cost probably steps in. However this topic of opportunity cost might get too complex and boring.

1) It depends on how many stocks you have researched, what are your odds of them performing well, how confident you are

2) Versus the current stocks you hold, their outlook based on your research, how much your research is relevant.

To cite a recent example, Powermatic Data is a stock i have talked about often. But i usually say the same thing that i say in telegram.....is a stock that i would recommend my parents to hold but i would not hold it myself.

The holding period for this company to show potential returns is too long (2026). As such, the opportunity cost is probably too large for someone like myself who sees it as being impt. But for e.g my parents would not bother such things so they can have a longer holding period so its totally ok as the balance sheet is still solid.

Of course there is every chance i pick another stock and it does badly while powermatic starts to show value earlier and it makes me look like a big miss but that's stock investing and such things might happens anyway. 

Secondly i think there is always the talk about what are your returns .

I think everyone has different risk appetite, different ways of viewing investing so as long as 1 is happy with their returns based on their way of doing things then all is good. But if u are not happy with your own returns then perhaps a change of way of doing things is probably required.

For example , you cannot be putting your money in t-bills and thinking you will get 10% a year.

Another example is 33.1% returns made over 3 years can be seen in 2 ways

a) Year 1: 0%, Year 2: 0% , Year 3: 33.1%

b) Year 1: 10%. Year 2: 10%, Year 3: 10%

People can talk until the cows come home whether a or b is better but end of the day it really depends on how much you inject into the stock/portfolio 

Someone who keeps putting in money each year will be better off with (a), someone with a lot in the portfolio already and cannot put as much money in will prefer (b)

Conclusion: Sometimes it is not about whether this company has good cash flow, good balance sheet, good income statement, good prospect that really results in a buy. Opportunity Cost might be a good consideration as well to think about.

But of course if the strategy is just to scatter as many stocks and hope that you pick more good ones than bad ones then opportunity cost might not matter....but still i guess there is a need to have some effort to keep track of the business prospect of the various stocks...at least for me thats how i think of it.

Sharing a photo taken which was part of the concert package in one of the concerts i went this year 😂