(Long Post) Recently screened 5 hk listed stocks for front loading

Front Loading simply means buying ahead of the results and based on research done on the believe that results will be good and result in positive returns..

This is something that i do quite often....although with relatively mixed results. I find it fun as i try to break down companies in short time frame , learn from my mistakes and review my research processes.

As companies have half year / full year financial results that ends 30 September 2025, these companies tend to report between october to december.

Of course, when this cycle is done then we will rotate back to the ones that have financial year ending 31 December and reporting from feb to march.

(A group i like a lot recently: Say My Name)

Recently I have took a look and shortlisted 5 companies.  At time of writing, i have bought none of them. So lets see which one (if any) will record positive returns at the end of the year.

1) Dickson Concept (Hkex: 113)

2) Oriental Watch (Hkex: 0398)

3) KFM Kingdom (Hkex: 3816)

4) Wahsun Handbag (Hkex: 2683)

5) Kato HK (Hkex: 2189) 

I am curious which ones readers think would do the best by end of 2025 too. 

Feel free to leave comments on any thoughts and views after reading this post.

1. Dickson Concept (Hkex:113)

A company that operates in the retail segment in HK, Taiwan mainly and does financial assets investing as well. Its business segment entails selling watches / jewellery, cosmetics and beauty products , fashion and accesories.

After the failed privatisation offer by 0.17% votes at the price of $7.2 HKD, the price has fallen to these levels since then.

2H 2024 Results can be considered a disaster as the retail segment is actually unprofitable. Due to the ongoing privatisation offer, there was no dividends as well

Now with the Chairman retiring, could we see a massive payout to himself now that he has retired and only a chairman of the investment committee?

Cash + Financial Assets - all liabilities = 3,004,394,000 or $7.64 HKD

Although we have to be aware that some of its financial assets are unlisted.

In terms of business front, could we see a mini revival in the HK Retail Industry?

Looking at cosmetic peer (Sa Sa), they have recorded positive sales performance from April to September as well.

This would provide some positive news for its Cosmetics segment which is most negatively affected.

2. Oriental Watch (Hkex: 398)

A company doing high end watch selling in China and HK. China makes up 75% of revenue.

Despite a 25% fall in 2024 and 22.5% fall in 1Q 2025 in watch exports from Swiss to China, PRC Revenue has held up resiliently.

With Hong Kong seeing 19% retail sales (mentioned earlier in Dickson Concept Analysis) in Jewellery, Watches and clocks , valuable gifts, could a recovery in the Hong Kong segment be on the cards?

In terms of watch exports to PRC, the number continues to fall but has improved (as seen in Jan to Sept is -16.3% fall)

There is no funny corporate actions with this company and they have distributed 41.3 cents of dividend in the recent financial year. (100% of their earnings).

Balance Sheet wise looks solid, Cash - Liabilities around 70 cents.

3) KFM Kingdom (Hkex: 3816)

A company that has done well in previous financial year on the back of a new customer acquired in the data and storage segment. They are involved in the metals business and provide the various types of metal products for various segments such as electronics, aerospace, cars , data and storage, office automation, medical etc.

(An example of 1 of their product factory line)

As a result, the company turned profitable in 2nd half of the year (15.4m) compared with a loss (-6.3m) in the previous year.

Its hard to guess who this new customer is but i guess it might be Celestica based on some googling and trying to get AI to answer. But i think its too hard to estimate from their customers.

The existing Customer A is likely to be their long time customer BDT Media (From IPO Prospectus). Their 1H 2025 revenue came in at 20% lower.

The high increase in revenue seems to tally with Customer A increase in revenue from Apr 2023 to March 2024.

Any gains would be banking on new customer acquisition or increased orders from new customer on the back of higher demand for data and storage drives.

Financial Health wise, finance income covers interest but cash on hand does not cover all of liabilities.

If we were to include receivables, the company has more than enough to cover all liabilities

4) Wahsun Handbag (Hkex: 2683)

A company that produces handbags from Cambodia, it has seen its gross profit improve more than 

While revenue is not at record high (below 2019 levels), profit of 64m is a record high and higher than in 2019 when it was 40m.

Looking at this, i believe that there has been improvement in manufacturing over the years which is rare for traditional industries.

The forward guidance given is strong as well. For export figures up till July, i think there is 10+% growth for handbags.

Given that there is likely growth, can they once again improve gross profit and margins and shrink the current PE of 5.53?

5) Kato HK (Hkex: 2189) 

A company that owns and operates Residential Care Homes for the Elderly (RCHEs).

The company has made big money (98m and 126m) in 2022 and 2023 on the back of winning contract to manage quarantine centre during Covid.

Now that covid is behind us, these supernomal profits are gone and they are back to expanding their main line of business. 

Operationally, i would say they have done well.

If we were to strip off finance cost and fair value change on investment property. The profit before tax is higher at 69m vs 63m.

What i find interesting about the most recent result is the large increase in revenue. This comes on the back of 4.2% improvement in occupancy rate.

What made me more interested is that i came across this youtube video where this person would talk about various hk stocks in cantonese and share about his insights from agms.

From his sharings, the 74.5% centre is filled and there are more acquisitions / increase in beds in the pipeline. While this would also mean more upfront set up cost as well as renovation cost, there is higher growth in bed count.

A video in April mentions that they have 1700 beds. The number as of 31 March 2025 was 1378. This represents a likely 20% growth in beds this year

Lastly , it is encouraging to see that the price trend that the government pays for bed space for the less well off is increasing (although not very high).

Having said it all, last year was the 1st time they removed interim dividend after a few years of record of paying it.

If they can improve occupancy rate, can they turn in a better profit and distribute an interim dividend to surprise? 

Then moving into 2H, how fast they can fill up the newly opened 20% capacity will likely

24% increase in revenue from 2H 23 to 2H 24 despite 4.2% improvement in occupancy rate and 12% increase in beds under management.

Same beds under management but 1H 24 to 2H 24, 14.3% revenue improvement with 1.8% improvement in occupancy rate.

The things to worry about is if the increased expansion will increase financing cost and how much higher upfront cost is needed for the set up of the new centres to be opened in late 2025.

As for the fair value loss, the tenant has vacated in aug 2024 and as such the company will be taking over the premises and running an elderly home....as such my view is that it will be transferred into PPE.

Ending the analysis with K-POP Photos as usual (In order of my fav members in the group)

Conclusion:

I am not sure how many i would pick out of these 5 stocks.

Maybe 0, maybe 1 , maybe all.

But currently now based on feels, if i am told to spread my allocation across these 5 it would be

20% Dickson Concept

35% Oriental Watch

5% KFM Kingdom

15% Wah Sun Handbag

25% Kato HK

Trying to breakdown Soon Hock Enterprise Holdings IPO in less than 2 hours (My thoughts)

 

This time round it took a bit longer because this company's prospectus is some what interesting to read.

I will write the conclusion which is I don't think this is a good IPO to be subscribing to.

To sum up the company's operations will be Industrial Property Developer with an inclination to sell the units as strata.

What I think is good about the company

1) Leadership. The founder is and executive chairman is from Cogent Holdings. A company that was delisted at $1.02 and taking a look at is share price before it delisted, i would say it was well run and anyone holding it probably did not lose any money. In this sense, i think its quite remarkable actually.

2) Decent Margins. In 2023, they generating around 25% in gross margins and 11% in net margins as they managed to construct and sellout their industrial project. This remains the only meaningful thing they have done in 2022,2023,2024 

What I dislike about the company

1) Too High Gearing. Liabilities make up 90% of the company. If there is 3 red flags, i think this company would get all 3 red flags lol.

2) Interested Party Transaction (IPT). They outsource their construction work to their own company (which is fully owned by themselves). As such erm i am not sure how the margins will look for the projects moving forward.

Another interesting thing that i found out is that they have this 300 worker dormitory that is also fully leased by the same construction coy owned by the executive chairman. This lease is until 2028 January so it is a 3 years contract for $135,000 for 300 beds a month. This equates to $450 a month. If so, why are you putting it in your prospects that beds can go up to $600....the other possible dormitory location at Shaw Road is not even approved / built as well.

In my previous analysis, i estimated Westlite Toh Guan to be around $526 in 1Q 2025.

3) Concerns on Current Project Margins. Stellar@Tampines, with $326.5 million gross development value. It is not clearly stated what is the amount that has been put into developing this property. We can only guess from the below evidence.

68.6m of construction expense and 157.1m and 28.1m. Altogether adds up to 253.8m. 

Adding that selling and marketing expense in 2023 where they concluded the previous project was 11.5% , that would be erm 37.5m. 

Adding all up, if 100% sold before TOP at developmental value, the profit before tax would come in at 35.2 million. Assuming 17% tax which is what they incurred that year, profit is 29.2 million or a net margin of around 8.9%.

And then we will have to wait to see if Skye@Tuas can churn out good numbers for 2026/2027

As that project has the highest GDV / Market Value at the moment, there might be a chance we get some decent margins. I did some calculation of $95m + $138.4 (construction cost in 2026) +  40.71m selling and marketing expense. The after tax profit is around 66.3m. Pretty decent for this project if this is indeed the case.

4. Cornerstone Investor. I added this in for fun. I just read an article that Lion Global Investor is the top Singapore Fund.

I searched up the list and they are not involved in this IPO. However, they were inside the Centurion Accommodation REIT IPO.

Summary.

For a company with market capitalisation of $180.1 million post IPO, a self estimated profit of around 100 to 110 million (if things all go their way) in 2026 + 2027, i think its quite weak.

The bookrunners being Maybank and UOB makes it more funny because they would help to do the IPO instead of structuring a loan for them if the banks believe that the projects have really good margins and can sell well such that the loans can be easily paid off.

The amount of IPT can be both good and bad but its not very comfortable with me.

(September 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

September 2025 Returns: -0.73%

Year to Date Returns: 102.46%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 360.59%

Nothing much to report for September as it is a rather muted month with the biggest downtrend seen in Centurion after the spin off.

It has corrected by around 14% from August. I think that with this spin-off it has reduced its exposure towards any potentially high bed rates due to its lower exposure via the reit and the other exposure is the quick dorms.

As such, it would pivot towarrds a management , short lease dorm as well as asset construction / acquisition company. 

I don't think at this point it is worth a panic sell as there will be some distribution of the REIT Units which has opened above its IPO Price and has still been above water at time of writing.

Moving forwards, it will be interesting to see what pipelines Centurion can pull out , be it short dated QBDs or acquiring land and doing student / worker dorms or M&A. 

But folks expecting for bumper dividends should reel their expectations due to this transition and their aim will still be to hit the AUM Targets they have set.

We should assess its results again through its business update / full year results to get a feel of the core earnings and the direction of the company's future pipelines.

All these would take time for sure, for folks who have views that bed rates might have a chance to shoot up quickly due to factors like booming construction and increased population in Singapore would be better off getting direct exposure through the REIT (or a value play will be to hold the parent and hope for an ideal distribution of REIT Shares in 2026).

I just find it funny that IF bed rates go up to say 800/1000, we might have the first reit to IPO and multibag in the same year.

Trying to breakdown Centurion Accommodation Reit IPO in less than 1 hour (My thoughts)

As the title suggest, i will be going on holiday soon so i took a glance at the Centurion Accommodation Reit IPO and i will give my thoughts.

I will write the conclusion which is i prefer the parent but i think that the REIT is passable for short term flipping.

These are just some of my observations that i read from the prospectus

WALE is short : Less than 1 year

7.47% Yield and 8.11% Yield based on price of $0.88

Around 73% of Net Property Income Estimation for FY 2026 comes from Singapore. Around 15% is from UK while around 12% is from Australia.

I think this is actually the most important page of the whole IPO Prospectus. 

Do we think that 2026 projections are realistic or achievable? To assess this, i think we should review the bed prices.

Based on my estimations, these are the bed prices

From what i am seeing, Westlite Dorms seems to be going for $600 - $630 currently so this amount is possible.

What about 2027?

This assumes beds will go up by around 6% in rental as a whole. Personally i think its too early to tell but my imaginary ceiling is that beds can not go above $650 cause this will mean workers can just stay in the budget hotels which has been popping up as alternatives.

3 Reasons why i think this IPO should be above water

1) Yield is attractive especially with the rate cut news. 

2) UK Student Housing is probably the one to watch. This year it is expected to deliver 4% rental growth as seen in major players Empiric Students Property and Unite Group. Given conservative estimates (~1%) from 2026 to 2027, this space might surprise.

3) Size of the Reit would make the Equity Market Development Program Ideal. Around 1.5 billion would be a size that would attract mid cap investors.

3 Reasons to be wary of this IPO

1) Short WALE means that rental actually has to be tracked closely. While supply takes time to enter market, external shocks that might affect the construction and related industries for workers would quickly send the revenue down. As such, there is a need to be kept abreast of the price at least

2) Looking at the 7+% yield, a simple assumption of PE of around 13 to 14? Its worth noting that the construction sector has always been cyclical and say this boom last for 5-6 years due to terminal 5 etc.....is this actually sustainable in the long run?

3) Priced to Perfection. The occupancy rate, rental prices, property value appraised and sale from parent to reit. It gives the feel of being perfectly priced and it is. Any further upside to the share price would only come from uplift of rental markets / no compelling attractive yield due to interest rate falling even quicker / 2030 Dorm restrictions forcing a huge shrink in current supply / good acquisition made using debt.

Conclusion: I prefer the parent in the long run due to the short leases workers dormitory and it will be more light asset following the spin off. I don't think construction demand will drop in 2026 2027 but i don't think rates can ever punch above 650 by 2027. Therefore, to record another 20-30% rental revision across 2-3 years seem rather impossible.

With that said, its Singapore, there are probably more experts in rental / housing  than myself so this is just my short and rushed views.

Apologies for any mistakes made in the analysis.

Back to Infinity Development (Hkex: 640)

As the title suggest, I have carved out some allocation back to this counter again.

To put in context, i actually exit this position (at 0.775 to 0.81) in April 2025 as i had to consolidate my firepower.

On hindsight, of course the deployment was very successful but Infinity Development did very well as well.

Company Brief Context

Operates in the Shoe Adhesive Industry, with factories in China, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam remains their largest source of revenue but Indonesia has been growing in recent years. Also there is increased investments in Indonesia.

(Indonesia showing 50% growth in revenue)

(Continued Investment in Indonesia)

Currently the trailing PE is about 6 while the price to book is around 1.25

Balance Sheet Wise. It remains relatively healthy. Cash is sufficient to cover all liabilities. Receivables remain healthy despite a 23% increase in revenue

Reasons for Purchasing

1) Dual Listing on SGX. 

With the dual listing, i think the prospectus will show more details when the company lodges it. Such as capacity , utilisation , new factory details , customer concentration and details.

The egm approval is on 25 September 2025, so i am definitely front running way earlier than the listing which might take a few more months.

Given by how the SGX Markets has been on going this year where a lot of small caps are starting to get into double PE .... 6 PE with capacity growth potential....its probably worth the risk taking.

2) Exports of Footwear remain strong in Vietnam , Indonesia and Bangaladesh

It might be a surprise but vietnam's footwear exports this period is the strongest. Based on this alone, i am really curious to see if this growth flows through to Infinity.

Looking at their second revenue generating location, the growth drivers remain.

For Bangaladesh, their footwear exports is up around 10% .

3) Major Customer showing production growth

Yue Yuen has been the prime suspect as their largest customer , contributing 21% of the revenue in FY 2024.

Their shoe production remains positive. With increases seen in Indonesia and Vietnam

4) Competitor Margins remain intact

Nan Pao (4766 TPE) is one of their main competitor with around 3 to 4 times of Infinity's revenue. It is relatively assuring to see that their gross profit margin trend has been increasing and also increased in Q2 2025. 

Concerns

1) Yue Yuen's shoe production growth has largely declined

To add to this, July Manufacturing is +0.5% while August Manufacturing is -9.70%

2) Competitor's Revenue is not increasing as well

3) Investor Relations Unfortunately does not reply, hopefully with the dual listing they would engage investors more.

4) With only 431 employees, it is hard to actually find any information about the company.

(I have no idea what is this but it showed up when i search for the company)

Conclusion

I am still a data driven person, so i will be encouraged to see increased export. 

Furthermore, during times of poor export in 2023, the company did poor as well.

I will allocate some position before the prospectus and review again after the prospectus comes out.

Before i sold it in April 2025, it was around close to 10% of my portfolios. 

I think the initial weightage of this amount will be acceptable.

Dream International (HKEX: 1126) Update

Dream released its results on 25 Aug. 

As the results presentation by management is on 1 Sept, i had decided to wait for it.

I will write the conclusion first. 1H 25 Results Poor but 2H 25 should be great and should matter more.

Why is 1H 25 Results Poor?

Gross Margin Fell. Management attributed increased staff cost and ramping up period for new items and product for buyers.

Revenue Increase of 12%. Frankly speaking i was expecting 20-30% but that is me, i think it might be difficult to ramp up so quickly.

Barring that other income swing (forex effect, results is poorer.

Takeaways from Results Presentation and 2H 2025 view.

-1H 2025 Revenue affected by some customers pushing back and moving orders to 2H as a result of the tariff situation

-However, currently pricing pressures not as severe and tariffs cost not bared by Dream.

-Management mentioned that 2H this year is 'very strong at the moment'

-1st Indonesia Factory is progressing better than management expectation. No impact from recent strikes.

-Lots of discussions with various customers from Japan, US , China etc. Recent tariff on India has also promped more discussions by customers who source from there.

-2nd Indonesia Factory and New Vietnam Factory will come hopefully come online for 2H 26.

-Maintain a stance of more growth next year due to increased capacity. But once again mentioned that revenue and margin increase can come from productivity improvements.

-Might look at increasing factory for Plush in China well given current demand remains strong.

- Build a Bear a major customer, still seeing positive order flow for Asian Theme Park Plush, believes that some effects of ramping up can be mitigated in 2H 2025.

- Unofficially said that there is around 40k workers at the moment, non peak period ideal amount would be 25k to 30k. As of 1H 25, there was 28.6k workers. Therefore, this is around 35% increase.

Conclusion

I would want to monitor and see how strong 2H might be. Will probably continue to monitor the export trends, theme park trends, customer revenue and inventory. 

They have increased a lot of customers so it remains to be seen how well they ramp up.

Given that i believe 2H Revenue should be the highest in history(current record 3.41b), i believe current price of 13.28 represents decent value as it is probably a PE of 10-11 or maybe even lower if productivity and margin improvement kicks in.

For my own portfolio , as of now, i will keep it at around 20% to 40% allocation for now. 

This might change based on prevailing business conditions and various data as data is released in the following months.