Front Loading simply means buying ahead of the results and based on research done on the believe that results will be good and result in positive returns..
This is something that i do quite often....although with relatively mixed results. I find it fun as i try to break down companies in short time frame , learn from my mistakes and review my research processes.
As companies have half year / full year financial results that ends 30 September 2025, these companies tend to report between october to december.
Of course, when this cycle is done then we will rotate back to the ones that have financial year ending 31 December and reporting from feb to march.
(A group i like a lot recently: Say My Name)
Recently I have took a look and shortlisted 5 companies. At time of writing, i have bought none of them. So lets see which one (if any) will record positive returns at the end of the year.
1) Dickson Concept (Hkex: 113)
2) Oriental Watch (Hkex: 0398)
3) KFM Kingdom (Hkex: 3816)
4) Wahsun Handbag (Hkex: 2683)
5) Kato HK (Hkex: 2189)
I am curious which ones readers think would do the best by end of 2025 too.
Feel free to leave comments on any thoughts and views after reading this post.
1. Dickson Concept (Hkex:113)
A company that operates in the retail segment in HK, Taiwan mainly and does financial assets investing as well. Its business segment entails selling watches / jewellery, cosmetics and beauty products , fashion and accesories.
After the failed privatisation offer by 0.17% votes at the price of $7.2 HKD, the price has fallen to these levels since then.
2H 2024 Results can be considered a disaster as the retail segment is actually unprofitable. Due to the ongoing privatisation offer, there was no dividends as well
Now with the Chairman retiring, could we see a massive payout to himself now that he has retired and only a chairman of the investment committee?
Cash + Financial Assets - all liabilities = 3,004,394,000 or $7.64 HKD
Although we have to be aware that some of its financial assets are unlisted.
In terms of business front, could we see a mini revival in the HK Retail Industry?
Looking at cosmetic peer (Sa Sa), they have recorded positive sales performance from April to September as well.
This would provide some positive news for its Cosmetics segment which is most negatively affected.
2. Oriental Watch (Hkex: 398)
A company doing high end watch selling in China and HK. China makes up 75% of revenue.
Despite a 25% fall in 2024 and 22.5% fall in 1Q 2025 in watch exports from Swiss to China, PRC Revenue has held up resiliently.
With Hong Kong seeing 19% retail sales (mentioned earlier in Dickson Concept Analysis) in Jewellery, Watches and clocks , valuable gifts, could a recovery in the Hong Kong segment be on the cards?
In terms of watch exports to PRC, the number continues to fall but has improved (as seen in Jan to Sept is -16.3% fall)
There is no funny corporate actions with this company and they have distributed 41.3 cents of dividend in the recent financial year. (100% of their earnings).
Balance Sheet wise looks solid, Cash - Liabilities around 70 cents.
3) KFM Kingdom (Hkex: 3816)
A company that has done well in previous financial year on the back of a new customer acquired in the data and storage segment. They are involved in the metals business and provide the various types of metal products for various segments such as electronics, aerospace, cars , data and storage, office automation, medical etc.
(An example of 1 of their product factory line)
As a result, the company turned profitable in 2nd half of the year (15.4m) compared with a loss (-6.3m) in the previous year.
Its hard to guess who this new customer is but i guess it might be Celestica based on some googling and trying to get AI to answer. But i think its too hard to estimate from their customers.
The existing Customer A is likely to be their long time customer BDT Media (From IPO Prospectus). Their 1H 2025 revenue came in at 20% lower.
The high increase in revenue seems to tally with Customer A increase in revenue from Apr 2023 to March 2024.
Any gains would be banking on new customer acquisition or increased orders from new customer on the back of higher demand for data and storage drives.
Financial Health wise, finance income covers interest but cash on hand does not cover all of liabilities.
If we were to include receivables, the company has more than enough to cover all liabilities
4) Wahsun Handbag (Hkex: 2683)
A company that produces handbags from Cambodia, it has seen its gross profit improve more than
While revenue is not at record high (below 2019 levels), profit of 64m is a record high and higher than in 2019 when it was 40m.
Looking at this, i believe that there has been improvement in manufacturing over the years which is rare for traditional industries.
The forward guidance given is strong as well. For export figures up till July, i think there is 10+% growth for handbags.
Given that there is likely growth, can they once again improve gross profit and margins and shrink the current PE of 5.53?
5) Kato HK (Hkex: 2189)
A company that owns and operates Residential Care Homes for the Elderly (RCHEs).
The company has made big money (98m and 126m) in 2022 and 2023 on the back of winning contract to manage quarantine centre during Covid.
Now that covid is behind us, these supernomal profits are gone and they are back to expanding their main line of business.
Operationally, i would say they have done well.
If we were to strip off finance cost and fair value change on investment property. The profit before tax is higher at 69m vs 63m.
What i find interesting about the most recent result is the large increase in revenue. This comes on the back of 4.2% improvement in occupancy rate.
What made me more interested is that i came across this youtube video where this person would talk about various hk stocks in cantonese and share about his insights from agms.
From his sharings, the 74.5% centre is filled and there are more acquisitions / increase in beds in the pipeline. While this would also mean more upfront set up cost as well as renovation cost, there is higher growth in bed count.
A video in April mentions that they have 1700 beds. The number as of 31 March 2025 was 1378. This represents a likely 20% growth in beds this year
Lastly , it is encouraging to see that the price trend that the government pays for bed space for the less well off is increasing (although not very high).
Having said it all, last year was the 1st time they removed interim dividend after a few years of record of paying it.
If they can improve occupancy rate, can they turn in a better profit and distribute an interim dividend to surprise?
Then moving into 2H, how fast they can fill up the newly opened 20% capacity will likely
24% increase in revenue from 2H 23 to 2H 24 despite 4.2% improvement in occupancy rate and 12% increase in beds under management.
Same beds under management but 1H 24 to 2H 24, 14.3% revenue improvement with 1.8% improvement in occupancy rate.
The things to worry about is if the increased expansion will increase financing cost and how much higher upfront cost is needed for the set up of the new centres to be opened in late 2025.
As for the fair value loss, the tenant has vacated in aug 2024 and as such the company will be taking over the premises and running an elderly home....as such my view is that it will be transferred into PPE.
Ending the analysis with K-POP Photos as usual (In order of my fav members in the group)
Conclusion:
I am not sure how many i would pick out of these 5 stocks.
Maybe 0, maybe 1 , maybe all.
But currently now based on feels, if i am told to spread my allocation across these 5 it would be
20% Dickson Concept
35% Oriental Watch
5% KFM Kingdom
15% Wah Sun Handbag
25% Kato HK
