Motivation for Investing
-For the first 5 months of 2022, motivation for investing has been relatively muted. However, the take-over offer for Shinvest in April meant that i had to start the transition of around 20% of the portfolio into other stocks as i have always maintained a low cash to asset ratio and i had no intention to deviate.
-With that i have allocated some proceeds into adding into my other top 2 positions within 1 month of receiving the proceeds
-From July, i was slightly more motivated. That was after i came back from my first overseas trip in June 2022 where i took a plane since 2019. That was also when my portfolio got much more active.
-To give a gauge, 56% of portfolio dollar movements took place in 2nd half of the year. While accounting for a 15% movement in 1st half was due to the take-over offer.
(2022 Returns: 21.49%. A standout miracle?/masterclass?/fluke? year which beat the STI ETF, Hang Seng Index as well as the small cap Hang Seng Index) In terms of absolute value, 2022 is the highest due to a higher base compared to 2019.
-The things that i have done well and not well have been talked about in part 1. My personal thoughts is that this year is not a tough year but its a year where things have to be done in quick fashion.
-Some examples would be catching on undervalued trend in container shipping in sgx to realizing that covid testing has increased tremendously due to omricon as well as the possible reopening news. These were quickly reflected in the market in matter of minutes to few days.
If i did not really went overseas and came back with some increased motivation to finish the year in positive returns, i might not have done as well. In previous years, a couple of stocks in my portfolio would just be kept there but for this year i have sold them (e.g Tat Seng Packaging)
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-If i were to rate myself for my 2022 performance, i would give myself 6.1/10. 2nd half of the year saved a poor 1st half of the year which was helped by a takeover offer. A good chunk of returns can be attributed to good luck as well. Passing marks given as the transition has been ok as of now.
The problem will probably be sustaining the same level of motivation into 2023. Like any other years, the toughest part is the year ahead.
Thoughts on my positions (6% Weightage and above)
1. AAG Energy Holdings Ltd (2022 Share Price Performance: 34.49% )
-I have talked about it in my previous post so i will not mention as much. I estimate the returns to be in a range of 15 to 30% if there is a takeover offer.
2. HG Metal (2022 Share Price Performance: -1.30%)
-A position i initiated in April 2022.
- A company that has benefitted from steel price increase as well as improved construction demand in 2021. Its main business is trading and manufacturing of steel rebars. In recent years, it has concentrated more into the manufacturing segment which includes cut and bend of steel rebars.
-It remains to be seen if the company's manufacturing segment can start producing consistent profits and grow from there as the company has pivoted into supply of cut & bend rebars to the construction sector in FY19. For now at least, the story seems to be working out as the cut and bend revenue in 2021 is higher than 2019.
|
Year |
Cut and Bend Revenue |
|
2018 |
55,637,000.00
|
|
2019 |
73,306,000.00
|
|
2020 |
47,257,000.00
|
|
2021 |
88,508,000.00
|
|
Year |
Manufacturing
Revenue |
|
2018 |
63,713,000 |
|
2019 |
91,630,000 |
|
2020 |
61,615,000 |
|
2021 |
103,704,000 |
|
2022 1H |
61,754,000 |
-As such, if it is able to prove that it can be well profitable when steel prices are in a healthy environment and not just a rising price environment, the company should be able to show better value.
3. Medialink Group (2022 Share Price Performance: -1.33%)
-A position i initiated in August 2022. More about the company can be seen in this previous post
-From mid year results, it seems on track for a double digit growth this year. The return of in-person comic conventions in Hong Kong and Taiwan has also allowed for more spending in anime related merchandise.
-Back in October, when the previous post came out the price was 0.128. As of 23 December it is 0.148 with a dividend of 0.007 declared. There is no need to cheer because the broader market recovered as well.
-The current biggest anticipated IP will be The First Slam Dunk. Will have to observe how well things go in 2023 January.
4. Mainland Headwear Holdings (2022 Share Price Performance: 27.26%)
-A surprise as after a 80% return in 2021, it continues to impress with a 27% return in 2022.
-I have previously talked about the company's mid year results in this post. For folks who are more interested in the company's past and recent developments can refer to this video as well as the latest developments in this article.
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