Folks who have seen the previous post on Previewing 1H 2023 and FY 2023 would not be stranger to such a post. Dream International 1126.HK has been on my portfolio for some time.
In my mind i was thinking about when would be a good time to publish this post. I feel that i will have a better idea in early August(will explain why as well), but i decided to publish it now so it would be good to get it off my head.
Writing the Conclusion First: No intention to dispose any shares and will not do so. Will reassess when results information are out.
I still 💗 the stock
As per the title stated, i think that Dream International will likely show Revenue Growth but my predictions is not easy this time around due to various indicators showing mixed results which i will talk more about in the following post.
I will start with the negatives
1) Funko Depression
Funko guided its 2024 Revenue to be lower than its 2023 Revenue in its FY 2023 Results Briefing. In some sense it is already a known card that it is going to be bad. Therefore, there is no surprises as this segment continues to depress. With revenue coming in around 15% lower. Coupled with another 7 million lower inventory, this adds up to around 18% lower demand estimated from Funko to Dream.
Given that Revenue already fell from 2.1b to 1.1b in 2023, this 18% is likely translated to around 198m and since it is in the 1Q which is 20% of full year revenue forecast of Funko, the impact is likely around 40m i think. Considering 1H Revenue is usually <2H, i would say
80m impact for the 1H 2024 is around there.
The negative impact is likely small but it is still there nevertheless.
2) Uninspiring Macro Numbers
The Vietnam Index of Industrial Production for Games and Toys is one of the macro indicator for the Toy Industry.
In years where it has produced negative growth YOY, Dream's YOY Revenue has also shown negative growth
(YOY refers to Year on Year)
However, i do acknowledge that the decrease this time around is relatively small. But this macro indicator cannot be ignored.
Exports Figures has been lackluster as well, Export of Toys and Sports requisites have seen a huge decrease from Jan to April. But have recovered well in May and June. Overall a small decrease of 4% and 7% to Japan and US. 2 Key Geographical Regions where Dream Exports to.
3)
MarginsOne concern shown by ppl on twitter as well as many folks across different platforms will be that its margins are too high and unlikely to be sustained.
In a smartkarma report i read, management says that they are not confident that it can be maintained as well.
However it is worth nothing that i was told that in 2023 there were pricing pressures as well.
With regards to this aspect, i can only say it is a business risk and we can only assesss as it goes or see if any clues come up with regards to raw materials / workers salary / cost savings from customers.
Raw Materials - PVC Price = Flat, ABS Price = Slight increase around 5%.
Workers Salary = 10-15% Increase from my understanding.
Overall this remains a risk but it is a business risk.
Positives / Opportunities
1) Increase of Salary is linked to Massive Employment.
Around Jan-Feb, a few factories have started mass hiring around 200 to 300 staff. In April / May , they offered to rehire workers back in the first time ever (I Believe) on previous or better benefits as well as hiring even more staff of up to 1000.
Increase in Pay and Mass Hiring.
This is of significance because Dream International has always been a relatively conservative company when it comes to staff strength. There is a decrease of staff from 28,924 in 2022 to 26,210 in 2023 when revenue is down as well. As such, this scale of hiring to me is a positive sign.
2) Sustained Theme Park Demand
Tokyo Disney Theme Park Merchandise Revenue is forecasted to be flat with gains of around 2-3%. However, from Jan to March 2024, it is around 17.9% higher than Jan to March 2023.
Merchandise Cost of Sales to its Revenue has increased as well from 42.30% to 43.50% . Therefore, another somewhat encouraging factor if we link it to margins.
With regards to visitorship, my estimate is that there should be at least 10% increase in numbers from April to June 2023 compared to April to June 2024.
A more key indicator will be when Oriental Land Reports results at End July (a reason why a clearer picture will appear in about 2 weeks time).
With regards to Shanghai Disneyland / HK Disneyland, it is seen in Disney Theme Park Results.
There is increase in revenue of 25% YOY.
My estimate for April to June will be Shanghai Disneyland being strong while HK Disneyland is not as strong compared to 1Q 2024.
3) Start to take in orders from Pop Mart
This is with regards to plastic figures. According to a research website's AGM report of pop mart, it seems like Pop Mart will continue to order from factories in Vietnam although it is currently 10% of its orders only.
With Pop Mart's 1Q 2024 Revenue up 40-45%, this could be a surprise engine for growth or to replace the Funko Revenue Shortfall.
4) Potential Surprise in Die Cast Sector
Monster Jam has been identified as a reason for growth in this sector in 2023.
This margin improvement for this segment is incredible with just a relatively lower % of revenue gain.
127% improve in segment ebitda while external revenue increased by around 20%. Management attributed it to Monster Jam (which is a product from Spin Master)
In 1Q 2024, although the revenue of the Wheels and Action Segment is down, POS Sale for Monster Jam remains positive and strong at +32% and Monster Jam Revenue is positive.
ConclusionAlthough macro environment indicators tend to point to a negative growth with some doubts on its margins being sustained, i would want to take a more micro approach this time around as Theme Park remains strong and there could be a positive surprise from new customers revenue as well as Die Cast Segment
Furthermore, Toys Export has been strong in May and June, if this positive momentum is sustained then i believe it should not be a problem as the hiring translates into volume exported.
With that i end off with a couple of K-Pop / Travel Related Photos .
(Random Photo of Strawberry Mochi)
If you manage to scroll all the way down here, then why not read the next few paras as well?
The tough question is.......will a positive profit alert or negative alert be issued?
If it is positive, it is likely due to the revenue increase and margins improved via productivity .
If it is negative, it is likely due to the cost increase such as labor / raw materials as well as margins erosion due pricing pressures .
Without seeing the spinmaster and oriental land figures for april to june, it is too hard to make any estimations but i am leaning more towards what i wrote in the title which is revenue growth and positive profit (35% chance) more likely than negative (15% chance) for now.
If spinmaster monster jam shows growth, we could see die cast really become a dark horse.
As for oriental land, maintaining some growth of high single digit when Jan 24 - June 24 vs Jan 23 - June 23 will be good enough.
I lean towards a more positive stance currently as from the estimates of the Oriental Land, i do not see any significant profit gain from merchandise savings and as such margins should be ok for plush.
(The increase in operating profit from merchandise / f&b cost ratio is 1.5 billion.)
(In the FY that past, it was 1 billion.)
Given that Revenue for Merchandise is 165,419 million yen or 165 billion yen while cost is 71,948 million or 71 billion yen.)
As such, a 1.5 billion yen in cost savings is unlikely to swing margins much. Even if all 1.5 billion is in merchandise and particularly plush, it would be likely around 1% margins erosion i think.
In fact, cost of sales has been increasing for merchandise and decreasing for F&B since 2021.
