2 Reasons for the quick update
1) Would likely be busy the next 2-3 weeks so might not be able to update on the results immediately as it comes out
2) There are some who came and tell me that they have this in their portfolio.....so yeah i guess its fair i update any information i have
Summary: Post share consolidation, i predict/estimate/deduce/guess with certain level of confidence that the company will have earnings of 46 cents this year. Ard 5.7 PE if the estimation is correct.
Since the previous post on 12 Sept. The dual listing SGX IPO Prospectus (600 pages) has been filed and made available.
I think the most important page (relevant for this post) is the below
Using financial statement basics, we can estimate the profit made in the 1st 4 months of its second half of its financial year (april to september 2025)
Beginning Equity + Net Profit - Dividends Paid = Ending Equity
Beginning Equity + Net Profit - Dividends Paid = Ending Equity
591167+?-28731=617815
Net Profit = 55379 (9.83 cents pre consolidation / 19.66 cents post consolidation)
For reference, 1H 2025 is 56609 (10.05 cents pre cosolidation / 20.10 cents post cosolidation)
So yeah , based on this , the following question to ask is how is the relevant data for August and September?
Based on what i have seen, August and September Footwear exports in Vietnam have been positive on average. Coming in at arount 5.4% which is lower than 12% seen in the 4 months but is in line with 1H 2025 growth rate of 5.5%
Looking at Competitor Nan Pao's vietnam plants, 3Q (July - Sept 2025) profitablity came in at around 3% lower vs 2Q (April - June 2025). Which is still stable. Vietnam is the key production location for Infinity , accounting for 57.5% of revenue in 1H 2025.
The same can be said for Indonesia Exports which has slowed down to 4.6% from 13.1%
However, i have found that in the past year, the company has managed to 'beat the trend' and also shift away from reliance on its top customer which accounted for 19.4%
Based on the above data, we can see that from April to June 25, it seems like the shoe production data is as follows
Indonesia - +8.6%
Vietnam - +2.2%
From Oct 24 to March 25 , the production data is as follows
Indonesia - +17.9%
Vietnam - 99.65%
However, the results for 4 months (April to July 25) is already 98% of Oct 24 to March 25.......which means that dependence on the major customer has greatly reduced.
Conclusion
For myself, i have added more since the previous post in Sept.
As for the sgx ipo, that is not something that is in my control, i believe there should be valuation re-rating if it happens.
Meanwhile i can only observe data from peers and exports as well as keep finding more information to digest if it is useful in estimations.
