Trying to breakdown Centurion Accommodation Reit IPO in less than 1 hour (My thoughts)

As the title suggest, i will be going on holiday soon so i took a glance at the Centurion Accommodation Reit IPO and i will give my thoughts.

I will write the conclusion which is i prefer the parent but i think that the REIT is passable for short term flipping.

These are just some of my observations that i read from the prospectus

WALE is short : Less than 1 year

7.47% Yield and 8.11% Yield based on price of $0.88

Around 73% of Net Property Income Estimation for FY 2026 comes from Singapore. Around 15% is from UK while around 12% is from Australia.

I think this is actually the most important page of the whole IPO Prospectus. 

Do we think that 2026 projections are realistic or achievable? To assess this, i think we should review the bed prices.

Based on my estimations, these are the bed prices

From what i am seeing, Westlite Dorms seems to be going for $600 - $630 currently so this amount is possible.

What about 2027?

This assumes beds will go up by around 6% in rental as a whole. Personally i think its too early to tell but my imaginary ceiling is that beds can not go above $650 cause this will mean workers can just stay in the budget hotels which has been popping up as alternatives.

3 Reasons why i think this IPO should be above water

1) Yield is attractive especially with the rate cut news. 

2) UK Student Housing is probably the one to watch. This year it is expected to deliver 4% rental growth as seen in major players Empiric Students Property and Unite Group. Given conservative estimates (~1%) from 2026 to 2027, this space might surprise.

3) Size of the Reit would make the Equity Market Development Program Ideal. Around 1.5 billion would be a size that would attract mid cap investors.

3 Reasons to be wary of this IPO

1) Short WALE means that rental actually has to be tracked closely. While supply takes time to enter market, external shocks that might affect the construction and related industries for workers would quickly send the revenue down. As such, there is a need to be kept abreast of the price at least

2) Looking at the 7+% yield, a simple assumption of PE of around 13 to 14? Its worth noting that the construction sector has always been cyclical and say this boom last for 5-6 years due to terminal 5 etc.....is this actually sustainable in the long run?

3) Priced to Perfection. The occupancy rate, rental prices, property value appraised and sale from parent to reit. It gives the feel of being perfectly priced and it is. Any further upside to the share price would only come from uplift of rental markets / no compelling attractive yield due to interest rate falling even quicker / 2030 Dorm restrictions forcing a huge shrink in current supply / good acquisition made using debt.

Conclusion: I prefer the parent in the long run due to the short leases workers dormitory and it will be more light asset following the spin off. I don't think construction demand will drop in 2026 2027 but i don't think rates can ever punch above 650 by 2027. Therefore, to record another 20-30% rental revision across 2-3 years seem rather impossible.

With that said, its Singapore, there are probably more experts in rental / housing  than myself so this is just my short and rushed views.

Apologies for any mistakes made in the analysis.

Back to Infinity Development (Hkex: 640)

As the title suggest, I have carved out some allocation back to this counter again.

To put in context, i actually exit this position (at 0.775 to 0.81) in April 2025 as i had to consolidate my firepower.

On hindsight, of course the deployment was very successful but Infinity Development did very well as well.

Company Brief Context

Operates in the Shoe Adhesive Industry, with factories in China, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam remains their largest source of revenue but Indonesia has been growing in recent years. Also there is increased investments in Indonesia.

(Indonesia showing 50% growth in revenue)

(Continued Investment in Indonesia)

Currently the trailing PE is about 6 while the price to book is around 1.25

Balance Sheet Wise. It remains relatively healthy. Cash is sufficient to cover all liabilities. Receivables remain healthy despite a 23% increase in revenue

Reasons for Purchasing

1) Dual Listing on SGX. 

With the dual listing, i think the prospectus will show more details when the company lodges it. Such as capacity , utilisation , new factory details , customer concentration and details.

The egm approval is on 25 September 2025, so i am definitely front running way earlier than the listing which might take a few more months.

Given by how the SGX Markets has been on going this year where a lot of small caps are starting to get into double PE .... 6 PE with capacity growth potential....its probably worth the risk taking.

2) Exports of Footwear remain strong in Vietnam , Indonesia and Bangaladesh

It might be a surprise but vietnam's footwear exports this period is the strongest. Based on this alone, i am really curious to see if this growth flows through to Infinity.

Looking at their second revenue generating location, the growth drivers remain.

For Bangaladesh, their footwear exports is up around 10% .

3) Major Customer showing production growth

Yue Yuen has been the prime suspect as their largest customer , contributing 21% of the revenue in FY 2024.

Their shoe production remains positive. With increases seen in Indonesia and Vietnam

4) Competitor Margins remain intact

Nan Pao (4766 TPE) is one of their main competitor with around 3 to 4 times of Infinity's revenue. It is relatively assuring to see that their gross profit margin trend has been increasing and also increased in Q2 2025. 

Concerns

1) Yue Yuen's shoe production growth has largely declined

To add to this, July Manufacturing is +0.5% while August Manufacturing is -9.70%

2) Competitor's Revenue is not increasing as well

3) Investor Relations Unfortunately does not reply, hopefully with the dual listing they would engage investors more.

4) With only 431 employees, it is hard to actually find any information about the company.

(I have no idea what is this but it showed up when i search for the company)

Conclusion

I am still a data driven person, so i will be encouraged to see increased export. 

Furthermore, during times of poor export in 2023, the company did poor as well.

I will allocate some position before the prospectus and review again after the prospectus comes out.

Before i sold it in April 2025, it was around close to 10% of my portfolios. 

I think the initial weightage of this amount will be acceptable.

Dream International (HKEX: 1126) Update

Dream released its results on 25 Aug. 

As the results presentation by management is on 1 Sept, i had decided to wait for it.

I will write the conclusion first. 1H 25 Results Poor but 2H 25 should be great and should matter more.

Why is 1H 25 Results Poor?

Gross Margin Fell. Management attributed increased staff cost and ramping up period for new items and product for buyers.

Revenue Increase of 12%. Frankly speaking i was expecting 20-30% but that is me, i think it might be difficult to ramp up so quickly.

Barring that other income swing (forex effect, results is poorer.

Takeaways from Results Presentation and 2H 2025 view.

-1H 2025 Revenue affected by some customers pushing back and moving orders to 2H as a result of the tariff situation

-However, currently pricing pressures not as severe and tariffs cost not bared by Dream.

-Management mentioned that 2H this year is 'very strong at the moment'

-1st Indonesia Factory is progressing better than management expectation. No impact from recent strikes.

-Lots of discussions with various customers from Japan, US , China etc. Recent tariff on India has also promped more discussions by customers who source from there.

-2nd Indonesia Factory and New Vietnam Factory will come hopefully come online for 2H 26.

-Maintain a stance of more growth next year due to increased capacity. But once again mentioned that revenue and margin increase can come from productivity improvements.

-Might look at increasing factory for Plush in China well given current demand remains strong.

- Build a Bear a major customer, still seeing positive order flow for Asian Theme Park Plush, believes that some effects of ramping up can be mitigated in 2H 2025.

- Unofficially said that there is around 40k workers at the moment, non peak period ideal amount would be 25k to 30k. As of 1H 25, there was 28.6k workers. Therefore, this is around 35% increase.

Conclusion

I would want to monitor and see how strong 2H might be. Will probably continue to monitor the export trends, theme park trends, customer revenue and inventory. 

They have increased a lot of customers so it remains to be seen how well they ramp up.

Given that i believe 2H Revenue should be the highest in history(current record 3.41b), i believe current price of 13.28 represents decent value as it is probably a PE of 10-11 or maybe even lower if productivity and margin improvement kicks in.

For my own portfolio , as of now, i will keep it at around 20% to 40% allocation for now. 

This might change based on prevailing business conditions and various data as data is released in the following months.