Q1 2026 Portfolio Returns - 5.02%

 

(I love to talk about my returns when they are bad because it is when its fun and reality is not every year is good)

Positives

-5.02% is higher than HSI Returns

-Some short term flipping positions are positive and worked well (Metasurface, XMH, IGG, AV Concept)

- Current Cash position of at least 15% represents opportunity to fire.

Negatives

-Returns lack behind STI (Better off buying STI)

-Sg Stocks Returns Negative 

-Top 3 Positions in SGX performance unsatisfactory thus far (Nam Lee 5% YTD. Hor Kew down 10+%. Infinity Dev Flat.

-Certain Positions remain Illiquid

-Front Loaded Hor Kew ahead of results backfired.

Thoughts on 1Q 26

-Flipping Short Term Holdings saved the portfolio. It makes me wonder if i should allocate a larger portion to this.

Positions Review (From largest holding to smallest holding)

1) Infinity Development - Export of Footwear remain positive in Indonesia and Vietnam. Albeit dropping from double digits to single digit. Largest Customer (Yue Yuen) has signaled some shipment woes but Infinity's top customer share has fallen to 19.7% in recent FY compared to 24% in FY 2022. On the more global end, running shoes remain their double digit growth. Seen in Adidas performance and Nike Running

As a whole, i think -10% to +10% revenue growth is likely the case for the upcoming results. Any larger increase / decrease will be how they are able to capture market share.

Margins as a whole should be fine as the oil price increase came in only in March. It might be worth to take a look at their inventory to see if there is any significant increase.

Ending off, the company surprised with a share buyback of 2% issued shares that is at a price of 2.43 to 2.53 HKD. From a corporate finance point of view, this makes 0 sense. The dual listing price is 2.32 HKD. The SG shares are traded cheaper than the buyback price.

They could have bought it cheaper in the sgx but yea.

The total amount used in share buyback is like 2.62 million SGD. If used in sgx, they could buy 6.6 million shares.

This should create a short term floor for the stock. It seems like whenever the drop in HK fell to 2.4x level, the invisible buyback hand strikes. Still, all eyes on the result in May

2) Hor Kew - Will await the AGM (likely April) before deciding if any reduction in stake is required.

3) Chuan Holdings - Illiquid + Lack of Dividends. 3.3 PE. Better 2H Profits (12.8M) vs 1H (6.1M) , 24% Earthworks Segment Margin (highest revenue source) an improvement from 2H 24 (18.28%) and 1H 25 (20.81%) Order book of around 2-3 years. Reduced Gearing. I think its cool to see if they can build on the better earthwork margins in 2H 25. Although orderbook of 415m is a reduction from 1H 25 of 453m and 427m in 2H 24, they have won a 36m project in Jan 2026. This improves the orderbook back up. Staff increase from 654 in 1H 25 to 724 in 2H 25 is also a possible show of increase of demand.

4) Nam Lee Metal - I am actually keen to add more on this stock given the retracement to levels seen at the start of the year. I believe 1H 2025 will be strong as seen in Vicplas Pipe Segment. I did not see any news that might affect them (which is why i am puzzled with the decrease to a 6x PE). 

5) Engro - Just deep undervalued play compared to Pan United in terms of earnings. VC Funds related to AI has surprised in 2025 and remains to be seen if it will surprise again in 2026. Negatives will be its bleeding China Operations that mask the profitability of the company. Will review again after AGM in April (Likely).

6) Solis Holding - Illiquid + Lack of Dividends. 

Apart from that, the company is turning around in its financials. 

Other Income mainly came from their Joint Venture Management Fee. It is a JV Project for a 139.75 million which will end in Sept 2026.

Revenue in 2026 is expected to be 4 times of 2025. They won 2 LTA Projects in April 2025 which led to the maintenance revenue increasing. They followed up with some wins as overall revenue in 1 year improved to 78m at 2H 25 vs 1H 25.

Coupled with the JV Project wrapping up, it is likely that their best profitability will come in 1H 2026 / 2H 2026

Current Market Cap is 228.9M HKD.

NAV is 438.3M HKD.

Coupled with possibly record profitability in 2026 and 2027/2028 order books looking healthy, it looks too undervalued to me.

In Ever Glory's recent corporate seminar , they also acknowledged Solis as a competitor in some M&E Segments such as LTA Projects (this reduces their possibility of being a fake company)

A Check on Gebiz also reaffirms as they are one of the bidders in recent projects.

In terms of balance sheet, currently the financial assets + cash is close to the total liabilities and covered the current liabilities.

Add to the recent announcement of a possible disposal of property (slated to be completed in 2027) at $21m SGD. This will make the company more cash rich.

Review of top 5 stocks that i think will do well vs not do well.

Do Well (Post can be found here)

Nagacorp - Q4 is really bad actually. The revenue came down much to a negative surprise. I believe the dip in share price is a result of this. As tourism numbers are quarterly, we will only know 1Q 2026 in 1-2 months.

San Mig Brew- 2H 25 is operationally profitable. Turned around from 2H 24 losses. Cash Rich, conservative 30% payout. Nothing to be unhappy about the results.

Perennial Intl - 2H 25 was weaker than 1H 25 as expected due to frontloading. Way below book value and has good cash vs liabilities.

Chuan Holdings - I have wrote about it above so not writing again.

Mainland Headwear- Positive Earnings Announcement as expected. Orders Guided to be 30% higher in 2026 so we will have to see if it really happens. 

Not Do Well (Post can be found here)

Not going to talk too much about this cause its not like there is shorting to be done.

At least by avoiding this list, the hit rate is 75%