Thursday, 30 June 2022

(June 2022 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 

June 2022 Returns: -5.87%
Year to Date Returns: -14.80%
Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 45.21%

The STI has declined by around 4% in June. I am somewhat surprised that certain counters continued to decline in June.

I have to apologize because i was too occupied with planning for my Korea trip and the trip itself that i have neglected some parts of monitoring of the portfolio.

(The trip itself)


On a more serious note, i do not have any urgent concerns with regards to the holdings.

Propnex - Property Sales remain mixed. New sales is up in May while resale hdb volume is down 5% from April. Increase in million dollar resale flats from 22 in April to 30 in May while resale prices rise for 23rd month straight.

The following months should be tougher with interest rate backdrop.

Powermatic Data - Results was ok as previously mentioned, with huge cash pile, i would consider adding this should it come down as it will be able to benefit from the interest rate increase.

TC Auto - Reopening should benefit the company, BMW's China Car sales in May 2022 have recovered from April lows and has matched May 2021. 

Uni-Asia Group - Mixed news again. Dry bulk has came down but maintains at profitable levels. Some good news from Hong Kong side as the quarantine has been cut and there has been increase in interest in its HK Office Property. For e.g one of the projects sold out the top 2 floors to a HK Company.

Of course, the usual playbook of hospitality and financial institutions is on the cards should a switch of companies be required. But i do not see any need to make changes as of now.

Once again, i apologize for the really bad results in the first 6 months of 2022. I will work towards reviewing the portfolio and hopefully it generates better results


Keep calm, composed like bingsu and jiayouz.



Wednesday, 15 June 2022

My own macro views (highly inaccurate)

 If this post goes off, it means that i have passed my covid test in Korea and is currently there now for a few days.

I would like to share my own views on how i see the macro in general. Though i would put a big DISCLAIMER that i am not skilled / experienced in such things and is just purely my own small view.

(In a Nut Shell Based on My Knowledge)


America (Commentary)

-May 2022 annual inflation rate 8.6% driven by food cost and energy prices. Highest since Sept 2005, seems like an unchartered territory for most investors such as myself.

-Tech sell down continues, as of 14 June S&P 500 is already down 20% YTD. Nasdaq down 30% YTD. 

-Talks of interest rate hikes being quickened continues as PMI continues to be above 50 indicating the economy expanding. 

(Manufacturing PMI 57.5, Services 53.5)

Views:

First off, i don't think that the US market is anywhere near 'cheap' especially we are a long way off the 2020 lows. While one can say that inflation has happened and you should have a higher index value to reflect such changes, then i would say lets add a 20% to the lows of 2020 as a rough inflation gauge.

Nasdaq low in 2020 is 6900 pts. 1.2 of it is still 8280 points. From this aspect, we still have 20+% more to go. 

I think the key turnaround for tech companies will come when inflation leads to a decrease in expansion of the economy. Which will likely happen when there is mass sacking in various industries across the board. While there have been some notable sackings currently, the unemployment rate currently still stands at a rate that is below pre-covid and therefore some bad corporate earnings leading to companies sacking people will have to happen before we can see some actions being taken on interest rates etc.

With regards to energy, i feel that high prices usually dictate a poor economy. When demand is bad in the economy then oil prices will take a shock and this usually triggers the 'crash' amidst the depression. But due to covid and ukraine crisis, this can might have been kicked down the road due to demand for travel and production ramp up issues by OPEC.

As i do not invest in the US Markets, i do not have any equity that i can think of that fits a decent investment at the current time.

Asia (Commentary)

A quick look at the 2 index that i view the most, the STI and HSI.

The HSI is off its 5 year lows set earlier this year but it is still at a low region when compared across 5 years. With US negativity, i am not surprised if we were to see that level again this year. 



The STI on the other hand has come off its highs although it is still at a high region when compared across 5 years. The strength of the asia regional economies will likely decide the strength of STI as the banks make up a good proportion of it.


For China, i believe that covid zero will likely be a mainstay until a vaccine of MRNA quality is made by china for the people in china. Till then, i don't think there will be mass opening up or opening of borders as simply put, the vaccine that is on offer in china is not good enough.

The economy on the other hand is a tough nut, it shows evidence of targets not being met although the gov seems to be very keen to push on all fronts to hit the targets despite lockdowns and all.

I still believe the economy will be bad, the targets are unlikely to hit if this lockdown continues (not covid 0 but lockdown). 

As for china property, apart from negative i have nothing else to describe. Simply put, if people are on lockdown / struggling due to being unable to go into first line cities to find jobs then housing demand would be on a downtrend and would have to rely on 2nd and 3rd line cities to fill up the short fall. 

This is unlikely to fill the gap because these cities have lower land value and selling prices compared to 1st line. Also it would be rather unlikely these cities have higher purchasing power as big companies tend to have factories at 1st line cities due to availability of talents.

In other words, the better jobs are usually found at 1st line cities. With real estate contributing 14-15% of GDP, this negative impact would be significant

For china energy sector, although prices have been rising, we have seen the authorities wave their magic pen and write down price control methods. As such, even though price increase is seen, the magnitude is unlikely to spiral out of control

(Reasonable price range introduced)

In line of this, i will be interested in positioning for smaller cap energy stocks as well as food/drink/ living essential companies as these companies are likely to be overlooked by general markets and have inflation hedge.

Although the price increase might be capped, this might actually promote healthy development instead.

An example of a company that i have looked at will be Kinetic Development (Hkex : 1277)

A small cap coal company that ticks 1 portion of my assessment but unfortunately scored badly in other portions. Although it has good earnings ability and pays decent dividend, the owner is associated with property company and has made use of the company to buy properties from its own property company. Also, it has engaged in numerous purchases of coal mines which will weaken its strong cash position it has obtained from a good coal market in 2021.

Another company that i have looked at will be my long time favourite Lam Soon HK (Hkex: 0411)

Earnings will likely be under pressure due to the rise in oil prices affecting edible oil, as well as wheat prices increase. This company has around 20+% of net cash (cash - all liabilities). It is a company that i will kiv and refer back when economy starts going bad and prices start coming down. But currently, bad earnings is expected to continue.

If i have to pick earnings growth company, i might want to consider these 2 companies.

Zengame (Hkex: 2660) : Price have retraced following a dividends declared not passed in AGM due to some compliance issue with the shareholding and as a result fund transfer out of china is blocked. 

While their new flagship game launched in 2H last year have continued to perform solid (not as good as 2H 2021). 

It means that earnings are likely to be higher than 1H this year as this year 1H did not include the new game. How much dividends announced will likely dictate the direction of this stock as management has said that they are working on it(though we will only know if this is true when the results release for 1H comes out in August). For more info please refer to my previous post on zengame here



Power Assets (Hkex: 6)

Just pure play macro view thinking, i would want to go into something safer which is utilities and power assets fits the bill best.

One of its earnings driver comes from its 40% owned UK Power Networks Holdings Limited which  own and maintain electricity cables and lines across London, the South East and East of England.

In March 2022, it has been rumored to have an offer made by private equity for £15b(around 143 b hkd).  There might be some value unlocking there although in a year where inflation might be high, the valuation might have to be raised up again after higher data these few months compared to when the offer was made in March 2022.

(UK Inflation will benefit utilities)



For Singapore, i think it will benefit from the re-opening as long as it can cope with the impact of Covid. Bearing any disruptions such as new variant or a new outbreak that is too serious, we should see healthy grow in production and tourism. 

On the flip side, we might have to worry about wage spiral inflation as this year has became a great year for people to quit their jobs and pursue higher paid jobs as they might have feel depressed due to the lack of wage increase in 2020 and 2021 by companies.

At the same time, some might find it stressful and quit to take a break. 

Nevertheless, this is likely to drive up wages for lower entry jobs as these folks will be able to secure better opportunities due to the opening of economy.

In terms of sudden demand shock, i feel that it is unlikely as Singaporeans still have a very good savings rate. This is evidenced by the oversubscription of Singapore Savings Bond. Something that has not happened for quite sometime. As such, i do not foresee any flash crash in property. Perhaps a moderation in consumption but i believe it will not be negative yet. 

Although we have been warned that a recession maybe be coming in Singapore, once again it is highly unlikely to imagine a very high unemployment rate without any measures done. 

Having considered the above factors, the picks in the sgx market has to be quite selective. I will group them to 3 categories (High risk, Moderate risk and Low risk)

High Risk

-Luminor Financial

The ability to convince the selling party to accept shares that are issued with a value of $0.30 is something that has not been well priced in. This year should be a year of profitability with its loan business gaining traction and finally recognizing the relocation gains.

However it is high risk because of its not so ideal balance sheet following acquisitions, presence of shareholder loans.

-YZJ Financial

Explained before, view remains the same. High risk remains because of the unknown credit risk.

-HG Metal

Just a wild pick as i do not want to pick BRC Asia but i want to think that it would continue to benefit from the increase in demand of steel and prices of steel in Singapore as construction resumes and increases. The profitability of this company prior to 2021 is very very very very bad and hence it is in the high risk region.

Moderate Risk

-Hotel Grand

Way below book value, given the recent frasers hospitality takeover offer at book value, hotel grand remains value waiting to be unlocked or a value trap either way.

Company has managed to be profitable in its recent FY and there is some rental income to support its results as well

-DBS/UOB/OCBC

Interest rate beneficiary but key risk being bad market conditions will somewhat affect the stock and an earlier than anticipated recession

-Sing Investments and Finance

Interest rate beneficiary with deep value in the form of its property, might not benefit from wealth management as much unlike banks but should still benefit due to its main business being loans.

Low Risk

-Powermatic Data

Results are ok, a bit of a disappointment over the value unlocking not happening for now but the value is there and the company is cheap when considering value unlocking is taking place. Huge cash pile, simple balance sheet reduces the risk of its company by a lot.

-SUTL Enterprise

Results are muted due to impairment but not accounting for that results is actually good and this is a luxury services play which is less likely to be affected by inflation.

Considering that most of the liabilities is deferred membership income, the balance sheet is very healthy not accounting for that.

3 Stocks I would avoid in SGX

-Jumbo

-RE&S Holdings

-Japan Food

Not a fan of the F&B industry which is showing losses/ thin bottomline. For e.g Japan Food had 5.4 million of rental support and government grant while it made a profit of 3.2 million. Although its 2H results signify a turnaround with profits after deducting other income, i still feel that the labour crunch and rise in food and wages would affect the company.

 Conclusion

I think as a whole we might be looking for a 1-3 years of depressed sentiments, returns that we have seen in 2020 and parts of 2021 is likely more rare now and we would likely have to be very rotational or value focused based to enjoy such returns.

Bearing in mind the downside risk remains as value might not be realized and rotational based might have been overheated already.


Thursday, 2 June 2022

A closer look at KSH FY 2022 Results

 

KSH has released its results and as mentioned previously, i will be taking a closer look at it.


Positives

1) Project Revenue has finally outpaced Cost of Construction.

 

1H 2021

2H 2021

1H 2022

2H 2022

Project Revenue

32,622,000

116,416,000

111,219,000

121,847,000

Cost of Construction

37,639,000

111,551,000

106,615,000

115,713,000

Gap

-5,017,000

4,865,000

4,604,000

6,134,000

 

In FY 2021, there is actually no profits from construction projects due to the higher cost. However, this situation has improved in 2022 with a higher profit seen in 2H 2022.

 2)  Recognition of Associates and Joint Ventures projects gathering momentum.

While progressive billings have come down as recognition of revenue occurred, profits have hit a new high although a part of it would be due to fair value gains.

 

With losses recorded in FY 2021 due to expenses recognized based on percentage of construction, I believe that share of profit left should be more quality due to the projects nearing completion.

 

 

1H 2021

2H 2021

1H 2022

2H 2022

Billings Estimated Left

480 million

416 million

318 million

212 million

Share of Profit of Associates and Joint Ventures

-327 000

-2,602,000

9,759,000

19,002,000

 

Gaobeidian will finally recognize a small portion of its profits in 2023, something that I have been looking at for some time.

 

To reconcile again, the phrase 1 of stage 1 release of 812 units is for sale with 596 units sold.  With 2180 units to be released in stage 1 total and an estimated amount of 15,800 units is targeted to be released altogether.

 

With sale prices of around 7600 and cost price of probably (4000?) This translated to a margin of around 40+%. Hence there will be a need to monitor to see if this is seen in the Progress billings recognized vs Share of profit.

(From Nextinsight)


How much profits they can recognize? Hard to estimate but maybe 10 million SGD from Phrase 1 Stage 1?

Time to look at the bad parts of the results

1) Gaobeidian phrase 2 selling prices seems to be lower. Coming in at 6000-6500 according to online sources. This is around 20% drop in the phrase 1 selling prices. While it is unknown yet how many units and all will be launched, this would affect the valuation in some sorts.

(2nd Phrase Price of 6000-6500)


2) SG Projects Pipelines currently somewhat dry. With the only new project upcoming being the Peace Centre / Peace Mansion property development portfolio, it is kinda lacklustre as 40% of the GFA will be used for residential with the other 60% being commercial. This means that it is more likely to be a recurrent income rather than a large profit over a smaller span of time.

(60% Commercial / 40% Residential)


3) Cost of Personnel increased. While the increase is attributed to performance bonus, I am not sure if it is really appropriate to be giving bonuses as this has close to fully eroded the construction profits. With personnel expense coming in at 10.3 million for FY 2022, the profit (Project Revenue – Cost of Construction) is 10.7 million. This meant that only $400 000 of profit is left to deduct other cost such as other operating expenses and finance cost.  Has performance really improved to justify the increase in fees?

To put in retrospective, the personnel expense is 8.9 million in FY 2020 which is pre-covid. The dividends declared was 2.2 cents for FY 2020 but in FY 2022 it is 2 cents when personnel expense is 10.3 million.

Conclusion

KSH is starting to look attractive as its construction margins have turned a corner and 'walking out of covid' should benefit its hotel segments as well. However, concerns still persist as a good amount (25%) of profits is actually from interest income that is derived from its loans to associates and joint ventures for projects. This amount should gradually come down as we head towards 2024 unless the new project of Peace Centre generates a good amount of loans.

After all, rewarding personnel is a must after a tough covid year, Gaobeidian prices still looks reasonable given the downturn in China Housing Market recently and projects/pipelines takes time to build and with only 1 completion in 2022 and 2 in 2024 (estimated), there is still time to replenish them.

All in all, it will still remain in the imaginary portfolio as i do not feel that there are too many bad things. I might considering adding some into the portfolio in fact.

Tuesday, 31 May 2022

(May 2022 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 


May 2022 Returns: -3.41%
Year to Date Returns: -9.49%
Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 54.27%

Most counters on the list detracted. It has been a bad May as well for the index.

But we have to go back to fundamentals on the list and assess them. Especially quite a number of counters have released results / updates in the past month.

Powermatic Data - Satisfactory Results

TC Auto - Sales down by around 15% but that is expected as the covid lockdown in China has occured. Does not look that bad based on 1st 3 months but i think april/may might be worse based on more lockdown news seen in areas such as Guangdong, Shenzhen. As mentioned previously, kicking the can down the road again before a recovery will occur but the PE is low for the company compared to peers in hkex.

KSH - I need some time to read in depth the result. But i have no particular concerns on a minor glance through

UMS - Looks ok

Propnex- Revenue Growth still strong with housing market prices still increasing. Some measures have been put in such as no escape from ABSD with 35% tax on residential property transfer into a living trust.

However, with inflation being the theme, i do not think a huge downturn in price is coming. Similarly, with the population being very cash rich (SSB was close to 3 times oversubscribed with each person getting only a maximum of 15k in the most recent issue.) Demand is unlikely to be weak as well.

LHN- Mixed results, most segments recorded decline in revenue and profits. This time around, a good chunk of profits coming from fair value gain in residential segment which is their co-living concept.

Have to monitor the core profits especially the residential segment.

Uni Asia - The 1Q updates gave little away but i believe the fundamentals are still intact. Perhaps some might not have been happy with their dividend policy etc but that is to each of their own.



Thursday, 19 May 2022

Astrea 7 Bonds Press or No Press?

By now i guess everyone should be familiar with Astrea Bonds already. Basically it is a portfolio of Private Equity Funds and it is broken up into different tranche where the top tranche has the lowest interest rates but is the safest among the different tranche.

Interestingly, this time around, retailers have 2 choices to choose from. 

Class A-1: 4.125% (S$ 280 million)

Class B: 6% (US $ 100 million or around SGD 140 million)

(Pasting the Picture you will see on most blog and finance site post as a thumbnail)


Reasons to Press

1) Current Astrea Bonds trading at a premium. The Yield to Maturity of current Astrea bonds are trading at below 3.6%. What this mean is that there is a very good chance that the new issue will open above water and it will allow for retailers a chance to make a quick profit.

(3.41% to 3.56% Yield to Maturity)


(2.056% to 2.15% Yield to Maturty)

2) Previous Astrea Portfolios did decent

Astrea IV started with 1098 million in 31 March 2018 and at 30 November 2021 it has 718 million left having distributed 826 millions. Had there been no distributions, it is an increase of 40% in 3.5 years.

Annualized gain of around 10% is impressive. Also it has earned enough to cover the 27m of interest payments each year.



3) Astrea 7's old funds did well as well

1 thing about PE is that we are concerned with performances of funds that are coming to a tail end of their life span of 10 years. With 2 funds having started in 2014, it is important to know their performance.

1 such fund is Permira V and its record of 25.9% net IRR isn't bad at all.


Another fund is CVC Capital Partners VI and its record of 18.5% net IRR might not hit the 20% IRR but it is positive and would clear the hurdle rate needed for interest payments.







Reasons to not Press

1) Tech Valuations have fallen and Recession is looming? Amidst the cloudy circumstances that is circling, there is some concerns given that Information Technology is 33.9% of the portfolio. There might be some earnings concern.

If a market downturn continues till like 2027-2028, this will affect more than 50% of the funds which are looking to exit their investments and they might have to exit at below NAV due to depressed valuations due to down turn.

2) Much more attractive options? A question when we deploy cash is to ask if there are attractive things out there. The markets have fallen quite a bit this year. S&P 500 for instance is down close to 18.5% as of 19 May. Hang Seng Index has fell by close to 30% over 1 year period. As such, some markets might appear 'cheap' and the opportunity cost to invest in these markets might be more attractive.

3) Interest Rate Hikes. 2 ways to look at this. We know the rate hike is coming but the amount of increase and number of times is not certain yet. If rates keep increasing, we will demand a higher return and this might drive the astrea bond to below par value which will deter some who might want to divest it to address their own needs. 

Another way to look at it is that since 80% of the funds are Buyouts, they are very likely to be leveraged companies and the interest rate hike might affect them negatively. This is something once again that we can only see when the half year results comes out and the NAV is recording fair value losses.

Conclusion

Its a press for myself. Though i have not decided on the amount and whether i want to hold it for long term or short term.

Barring a sudden rate hike by the Feds this month again due to black swan events, I do not see the bond opening underwater.

Of course i am wary of recessions and all but i believe that there should be enough warning signs to get out should the signs show that the A1 tranche will be affected. The pros outweigh the cons.

Lastly, should we apply for the Class B Tranche? Taking a look at the chart, the BBB Corporate 10 years is 4.908%. As such, the 6% that is on offer seems to be an attractive choice as there are many different companies involved (982 invested as of Sept 2021). This should reduce the risk due to diversification.

(Raymond James Weekly Interest Rate Monitor 16 May 2022)


Key Comparisons for Thoughts





With the most Investee Companies, lowest weighted average age and most % of undrawn capital. In some ways this issue might be the 'safest' among the 4.






Tuesday, 3 May 2022

(Non Equities Related) My reflections on turning 28

As May approaches, i will be turning 28 this month. I did some reflection on various aspects of my life.

Lessons Learnt (Applicable to myself but does not mean it applies to all)

1) Its not about who is in front of you and who is behind you. But rather is the current speed and progress something you are satisfied with.

Many of times, we have heard of people sharing how highly paid / rich / well respected at work with high rank etc as well as stories of how people are lowly paid / poor/ suffering in some aspect of life / not having work life balance etc etc. 

The main thing for me is that everyone has their own 'game' to focus on. As such, you should know yourself best in what you can achieve and what you cannot. Hence you should set targets for yourself only and focus on it. Whether people are overtaking you in some aspects of life or you have overtaken others in some aspect of life does not matter at all.

2) Ability / Knowledge / Skills does not equate results. 

Perhaps a common understanding is that if you can do well then you will get good results.
Examples
A Singer sings very well = should be popular and do well
A person who does his job very well = should have good pay rise, bonus and promotion
A person who does his research for investing very well = Should be able to have better returns than those that does not

Unfortunately, such things are not given in real life and most of the time it does not happen. In some cases you can do the same thing 10 times and only find success 3-4 of times. Simply put, doing well improves your chance but does not mean anything else. 

A lot of other factors will affect the outcome simply and its important to adjust your mindset towards that. The most important thing is that each time you do the same thing again, you are either putting in consistent effort or you are improving in doing it.

3) Have a realistic expectation of the stakes and tradeoffs involved in whatever you do

Sometimes, we can have unrealistic expectations of outcomes in various processes. As such when the outcome is not to our expectations, we find ourselves being unmotivated quickly.
Examples
Setting unrealistic expectations for investing. Expecting DBS to go to $100 by June 2022 for instance.
Thinking that more hours put in at work will get recognized. While this might be true in some cases, sometimes the people who get recognized might not be you as others might have put in even more hours or others might be the head of the project. The reasons are aplenty.
What is more important is that you should ask yourself if its worth it? If it is then go do it . But if it is not then you should ask what are the alternatives that i can seek and work towards it.

Above are just some of my thoughts.  Does not to apply to all.


For myself i have some expectations and what i want to do this year. But since it applies to myself only and it probably sounds boring, i will not be talking about it here. 

But keen readers would know where my interest lies..........

(Choosing a nice picture for thumbnail)




If you have read towards the end, then do consider looking at the below. Once again, just my thoughts only.

(To view a clearer image do click on this link:)











Friday, 29 April 2022

(April 2022 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

 


April 2022 Returns: -2.91%
Year to Date Returns: -6.29%
Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 59.71%

Most counters on the list detracted. It has been a bad April as well for the index.

In my opinion the key development was that the covid situation in china has gotten worse and there might be a need to relook at positions held in the list.

In terms of results, iFast has reported its 1st quarter of results and it looks bad which might have been more than expected given the poor market conditions would have affected the AUM amount and AUM Mix. With the news of not securing a Malaysia License, it seems like there will be head winds further and the guidance for the HK business in 2023 seems to have been slightly revised lower. 

However with the low weightage of iFast in the portfolio (<4%), I am not really worried about it. Though a thought i have been curious is that despite all the attempt to promote the local fintech industry and encouraging them to take the big step, a company like iFast has failed in winning both the Singapore and Malaysia Digital Bank License.

Exited Position: Straco

Exit Rationale: Since Mid-March, the aquarium has been closed. Although the flyer has resumed operations, the aquarium is still the main income generator and it seems like golden week, a traditional 

Entered Position: YZJ Financial Holding

Enter Rationale: The sell off on 29 April makes no sense and i anticipate a rebound of price when the buyback mandate kicks in. To put the company it in some simple numbers.

Current Share Price: 0.545

Price to Book Value: 0.504

Price to Earnings: 6.8

Default Rate: <5%, Recovery Rate: >70%

(Coverage Ratio 3.9, 24% of loan in Real Estate and 37% in Manufacturing)
(Collateral type is 34% Land/Properties and 37% Shares)

Going by the coverage ratio, there seems to be some leeway in case the debts do fail. As such, the current price represents a good discount. Of course we would need to be wary of the downside risk as there is little information on the debts and the potential correlation in the debts should there be a debt crisis in China as we have seen in the property space already. In such cases, the collateral might suffer a huge depreciation.

Another thing to look out for will be its profitability after it has shifted its strategy from 100% Debt Investments to 50% Investment Management and 50% GP Funds Business. This would need some time to bear fruit as well and in 2023 we will be able to see how the company balances short and long term profitability.

As such after replacing Straco, the allocation looks like this.