(October 2025 Results) How i would invest in the singapore stock market if i had 100k of spare money

October 2025 Returns: 0.47%

Year to Date Returns: 103.40%

Since Inception (9 Sept 2020) Returns: 362.74%

There is actually a lot to talk about this month even though returns seems flattish.

The biggest talking point would be Nam Lee Metal's announcement on 31 October after trading hours where its MD was interviewed by CPIB. It is worth noting that the MD is not a major shareholder of the company but has been in the position since 2019.

When i first saw this announcement, i went to search up previous sgx announcements that are related to CPIB. It is worth nothing that, there was no charge / bail required nor passport surrendered and company is not involved.

Notably, the previous few companies to enjoy posting about CPIB is Seatrium, Singapore Kitchen Equipment , HPL and Jubilee 

In Seatrium case, the company is involved and is informed by CPIB.

In Singapore Kitchen case, the company is involved, interview on 10 sept 2020 but halted only on 11 sept 2020. Bail needed and passports confiscated

In HPL Case, the company is not involved and the person is required to post bail and surrender passport. 

In Jubilee Case, it involved the company and bail is required.

   

After reading the various previous cases in other companies, i would say for now , it seems like the matter involving Nam Lee is not as severe compared to other cases.

Also, there was no large share price fluctuations on the day of the halt or the past few days leading to it (which might be a hint of MD being convicted and decided to inform friends or related parties to dump the stock before informing the company about it.)

Having said that, it seems like someone really wants him convicted because the whistle blowing report to the company's audit committee in FY 2024 did not have any effect and thus another  report on similar line of allegations is lodged to the CPIB this time.

However, i would be keen to know what are the procudural lapse and control gaps as well as what are the actions done to improve internal controls.

Of course, these are my own inference made from current information available only. Should there be more updates then the view might change.

Having read all of it, i have no intention to make any changes to the position upon resumption of trading.

Having said that, there will still be changes made to the portfolio. 

Removal: Singpost and ChinaSunsine 

Addition: XMH and Singshipping

Rationale for addition

Singshipping: I am just adding it for 1 month to see if there is any earnings surprise with regards to the lease extension of the ship whose previous price was set in 2010.

XMH: This is a fintwitter / substack favourite stock that i have read recently. 

The current concern is the Indonesian tax which is a big earnings detractor if they fail in their appeal and have to pay as it is half of their 2025 earnings and it was for the year ended April 2024 which means 2025 they would have to pay even more given the higher earnings.

However, they have a factory which is largely undervalued as it has not been revalued for 5 years and their generator sets operation in Johor Malaysia is largely related to data centre projects which has been booming there and the recent sale of stake to their supplier (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) also strengthens the partnership and allows for future expansion plans to be done easier since the supplier is a shareholder as well. 

In terms of valuation, this allows for a sum of the part valuation. Which values the distribution business, and other portions such as the factory in Singapore cheaply.

Ending Thoughts

My conspiracy theory will be business might be too good at Nam Lee such that there might be internal struggle for power.

(Long Post) Recently screened 5 hk listed stocks for front loading

Front Loading simply means buying ahead of the results and based on research done on the believe that results will be good and result in positive returns..

This is something that i do quite often....although with relatively mixed results. I find it fun as i try to break down companies in short time frame , learn from my mistakes and review my research processes.

As companies have half year / full year financial results that ends 30 September 2025, these companies tend to report between october to december.

Of course, when this cycle is done then we will rotate back to the ones that have financial year ending 31 December and reporting from feb to march.

(A group i like a lot recently: Say My Name)

Recently I have took a look and shortlisted 5 companies.  At time of writing, i have bought none of them. So lets see which one (if any) will record positive returns at the end of the year.

1) Dickson Concept (Hkex: 113)

2) Oriental Watch (Hkex: 0398)

3) KFM Kingdom (Hkex: 3816)

4) Wahsun Handbag (Hkex: 2683)

5) Kato HK (Hkex: 2189) 

I am curious which ones readers think would do the best by end of 2025 too. 

Feel free to leave comments on any thoughts and views after reading this post.

1. Dickson Concept (Hkex:113)

A company that operates in the retail segment in HK, Taiwan mainly and does financial assets investing as well. Its business segment entails selling watches / jewellery, cosmetics and beauty products , fashion and accesories.

After the failed privatisation offer by 0.17% votes at the price of $7.2 HKD, the price has fallen to these levels since then.

2H 2024 Results can be considered a disaster as the retail segment is actually unprofitable. Due to the ongoing privatisation offer, there was no dividends as well

Now with the Chairman retiring, could we see a massive payout to himself now that he has retired and only a chairman of the investment committee?

Cash + Financial Assets - all liabilities = 3,004,394,000 or $7.64 HKD

Although we have to be aware that some of its financial assets are unlisted.

In terms of business front, could we see a mini revival in the HK Retail Industry?

Looking at cosmetic peer (Sa Sa), they have recorded positive sales performance from April to September as well.

This would provide some positive news for its Cosmetics segment which is most negatively affected.

2. Oriental Watch (Hkex: 398)

A company doing high end watch selling in China and HK. China makes up 75% of revenue.

Despite a 25% fall in 2024 and 22.5% fall in 1Q 2025 in watch exports from Swiss to China, PRC Revenue has held up resiliently.

With Hong Kong seeing 19% retail sales (mentioned earlier in Dickson Concept Analysis) in Jewellery, Watches and clocks , valuable gifts, could a recovery in the Hong Kong segment be on the cards?

In terms of watch exports to PRC, the number continues to fall but has improved (as seen in Jan to Sept is -16.3% fall)

There is no funny corporate actions with this company and they have distributed 41.3 cents of dividend in the recent financial year. (100% of their earnings).

Balance Sheet wise looks solid, Cash - Liabilities around 70 cents.

3) KFM Kingdom (Hkex: 3816)

A company that has done well in previous financial year on the back of a new customer acquired in the data and storage segment. They are involved in the metals business and provide the various types of metal products for various segments such as electronics, aerospace, cars , data and storage, office automation, medical etc.

(An example of 1 of their product factory line)

As a result, the company turned profitable in 2nd half of the year (15.4m) compared with a loss (-6.3m) in the previous year.

Its hard to guess who this new customer is but i guess it might be Celestica based on some googling and trying to get AI to answer. But i think its too hard to estimate from their customers.

The existing Customer A is likely to be their long time customer BDT Media (From IPO Prospectus). Their 1H 2025 revenue came in at 20% lower.

The high increase in revenue seems to tally with Customer A increase in revenue from Apr 2023 to March 2024.

Any gains would be banking on new customer acquisition or increased orders from new customer on the back of higher demand for data and storage drives.

Financial Health wise, finance income covers interest but cash on hand does not cover all of liabilities.

If we were to include receivables, the company has more than enough to cover all liabilities

4) Wahsun Handbag (Hkex: 2683)

A company that produces handbags from Cambodia, it has seen its gross profit improve more than 

While revenue is not at record high (below 2019 levels), profit of 64m is a record high and higher than in 2019 when it was 40m.

Looking at this, i believe that there has been improvement in manufacturing over the years which is rare for traditional industries.

The forward guidance given is strong as well. For export figures up till July, i think there is 10+% growth for handbags.

Given that there is likely growth, can they once again improve gross profit and margins and shrink the current PE of 5.53?

5) Kato HK (Hkex: 2189) 

A company that owns and operates Residential Care Homes for the Elderly (RCHEs).

The company has made big money (98m and 126m) in 2022 and 2023 on the back of winning contract to manage quarantine centre during Covid.

Now that covid is behind us, these supernomal profits are gone and they are back to expanding their main line of business. 

Operationally, i would say they have done well.

If we were to strip off finance cost and fair value change on investment property. The profit before tax is higher at 69m vs 63m.

What i find interesting about the most recent result is the large increase in revenue. This comes on the back of 4.2% improvement in occupancy rate.

What made me more interested is that i came across this youtube video where this person would talk about various hk stocks in cantonese and share about his insights from agms.

From his sharings, the 74.5% centre is filled and there are more acquisitions / increase in beds in the pipeline. While this would also mean more upfront set up cost as well as renovation cost, there is higher growth in bed count.

A video in April mentions that they have 1700 beds. The number as of 31 March 2025 was 1378. This represents a likely 20% growth in beds this year

Lastly , it is encouraging to see that the price trend that the government pays for bed space for the less well off is increasing (although not very high).

Having said it all, last year was the 1st time they removed interim dividend after a few years of record of paying it.

If they can improve occupancy rate, can they turn in a better profit and distribute an interim dividend to surprise? 

Then moving into 2H, how fast they can fill up the newly opened 20% capacity will likely

24% increase in revenue from 2H 23 to 2H 24 despite 4.2% improvement in occupancy rate and 12% increase in beds under management.

Same beds under management but 1H 24 to 2H 24, 14.3% revenue improvement with 1.8% improvement in occupancy rate.

The things to worry about is if the increased expansion will increase financing cost and how much higher upfront cost is needed for the set up of the new centres to be opened in late 2025.

As for the fair value loss, the tenant has vacated in aug 2024 and as such the company will be taking over the premises and running an elderly home....as such my view is that it will be transferred into PPE.

Ending the analysis with K-POP Photos as usual (In order of my fav members in the group)

Conclusion:

I am not sure how many i would pick out of these 5 stocks.

Maybe 0, maybe 1 , maybe all.

But currently now based on feels, if i am told to spread my allocation across these 5 it would be

20% Dickson Concept

35% Oriental Watch

5% KFM Kingdom

15% Wah Sun Handbag

25% Kato HK

Trying to breakdown Soon Hock Enterprise Holdings IPO in less than 2 hours (My thoughts)

 

This time round it took a bit longer because this company's prospectus is some what interesting to read.

I will write the conclusion which is I don't think this is a good IPO to be subscribing to.

To sum up the company's operations will be Industrial Property Developer with an inclination to sell the units as strata.

What I think is good about the company

1) Leadership. The founder is and executive chairman is from Cogent Holdings. A company that was delisted at $1.02 and taking a look at is share price before it delisted, i would say it was well run and anyone holding it probably did not lose any money. In this sense, i think its quite remarkable actually.

2) Decent Margins. In 2023, they generating around 25% in gross margins and 11% in net margins as they managed to construct and sellout their industrial project. This remains the only meaningful thing they have done in 2022,2023,2024 

What I dislike about the company

1) Too High Gearing. Liabilities make up 90% of the company. If there is 3 red flags, i think this company would get all 3 red flags lol.

2) Interested Party Transaction (IPT). They outsource their construction work to their own company (which is fully owned by themselves). As such erm i am not sure how the margins will look for the projects moving forward.

Another interesting thing that i found out is that they have this 300 worker dormitory that is also fully leased by the same construction coy owned by the executive chairman. This lease is until 2028 January so it is a 3 years contract for $135,000 for 300 beds a month. This equates to $450 a month. If so, why are you putting it in your prospects that beds can go up to $600....the other possible dormitory location at Shaw Road is not even approved / built as well.

In my previous analysis, i estimated Westlite Toh Guan to be around $526 in 1Q 2025.

3) Concerns on Current Project Margins. Stellar@Tampines, with $326.5 million gross development value. It is not clearly stated what is the amount that has been put into developing this property. We can only guess from the below evidence.

68.6m of construction expense and 157.1m and 28.1m. Altogether adds up to 253.8m. 

Adding that selling and marketing expense in 2023 where they concluded the previous project was 11.5% , that would be erm 37.5m. 

Adding all up, if 100% sold before TOP at developmental value, the profit before tax would come in at 35.2 million. Assuming 17% tax which is what they incurred that year, profit is 29.2 million or a net margin of around 8.9%.

And then we will have to wait to see if Skye@Tuas can churn out good numbers for 2026/2027

As that project has the highest GDV / Market Value at the moment, there might be a chance we get some decent margins. I did some calculation of $95m + $138.4 (construction cost in 2026) +  40.71m selling and marketing expense. The after tax profit is around 66.3m. Pretty decent for this project if this is indeed the case.

4. Cornerstone Investor. I added this in for fun. I just read an article that Lion Global Investor is the top Singapore Fund.

I searched up the list and they are not involved in this IPO. However, they were inside the Centurion Accommodation REIT IPO.

Summary.

For a company with market capitalisation of $180.1 million post IPO, a self estimated profit of around 100 to 110 million (if things all go their way) in 2026 + 2027, i think its quite weak.

The bookrunners being Maybank and UOB makes it more funny because they would help to do the IPO instead of structuring a loan for them if the banks believe that the projects have really good margins and can sell well such that the loans can be easily paid off.

The amount of IPT can be both good and bad but its not very comfortable with me.